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Open Philanthropy Project awards a grant of $30M to OpenAI

openphilanthropy.org

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Re: Open Philanthropy Project awards a grant of $30M to OpenAI

#161
post #147

Scroll to the end. This is a $30M grant to the guy's roommate and future brother-in-law. Unbelievable.

I scrolled to the end and can see why someone would question that. But framing it as a personal grant is misleading. If we're going to keep telling users that on HN we want them to make substantive points thoughtfully and apply the principle of charity, it's only fair to say so here as well. We like pith, but fairness more. (In case anyone is curious, I don't know anything about the story; I just saw it on HN.)

I don't think the principle of charity applies when someone is making foundation grants to benefit their close relatives and roommates. The principle of shenanigans kicks in.

Re: Open Philanthropy Project awards a grant of $30M to OpenAI

#162
post #26
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, I would use it as a criticism. This is a tangled web of like-minded people giving money to each other and calling it charity. Some people conflate this with Effective Altruism, which I think sucks. Compared to the rigorous work done by GiveWell, there's no way to tell if this is effective, or even altruistic. It's just people assuming that the world will be a better place if more people who think like them have…

It seems objectively better for some people to have access to money -- in this case the GiveWell founder. He's done great work there and now he's helping OpenAI all via a Facebook founder's billions.

"It seems objectively better for some people to have access to money" is classism in one sentence.

And I won't give people a pass because of the thing they co-founded and then forked. I can appreciate Wikipedia and believe that Larry Sanger's fork of it was dumb. I can appreciate GiveWell and think that Open Philantropy is corrupt.

Re: Open Philanthropy Project awards a grant of $30M to OpenAI

#163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, exactly as much as any other cpus can do by solely controlling it's output electrons: not much. Let's not ascribe deity-like powers to things that we can understand fairly well.

Have you ever seen a CPU running a program which is trying to communicate with the outside world through its electron side-channels? As far as I can see, your argument is "no computer has ever done this, and also we understand computers well enough to know that no computer ever will". The first clause is obvious, since no computer has ever been made to do this. The second clause is assuming without proof that we will…

Pray explain how you could use the electrons coming out of a CPU as a side channel. I don't need anything specific, but I'd prefer something that doesn't sound like its taken out of a Heinlein novel.

You're again using terms incorrectly. A "side channel" implies that someone is listening to information that is unintentionally leaked. Unless your expectation is that this CPU is going to start side channeling our minds with the EM waves its emitting (which again, "deity-like attributes"), we'd need to be specifically listening to whatever "side channel" it uses, and it would require knowledge of and access to that side channel.

Something being able to send additional information over a side channel doesn't help unless that information is received, and so realistically, unless your hypothesis is "mind control/hacking the airwaves/whatever via sound waves the chip emanates" or similar, which are preposterous, it'll always be just as easy for the thing to transmit information via the normal channels.

Re: Open Philanthropy Project awards a grant of $30M to OpenAI

#164

Scroll to the end. This is a $30M grant to the guy's roommate and future brother-in-law. Unbelievable.

Here's the other perspective – if I'm working at Open Philanthropy, I'd be wanting to get to know people who run organizations I'm likely to be really interested in.

So, it's natural that I'd be expecting there's a high chance I'd want to give to the organization they work at later on.

Just because someone has a personal connection doesn't mean it's a bad use of money – it indicates it's worth asking the question, but just because there's personal connection doesn't make it "unbelievable."

Also - not just his roommate and future brother-in-law. Also a project funded by Elon Musk, Reid Hoffman, etc. Seems pretty damn reasonable to think they would've evaluated OpenAI for a grant regardless of the personal relationships.

Hater News at its best.

Re: Open Philanthropy Project awards a grant of $30M to OpenAI

#165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

An airgapped computer is not going to be capable of taking over the world. Further, Turing completeness is not required to be "useful". You can get to the moon without Turing completeness.

Right, because there's no way even small computers can communicate through air. Just one tiny crack is all that's needed. And that's not even going into things the AI might say that'll convince the gatekeepers to just voluntarily let it out.

This makes me think you don't know what the word "airgapped" means in this context.

Re: Open Philanthropy Project awards a grant of $30M to OpenAI

#166
post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is an abuse of Rice's theorem (which seems to be getting more common). Rice's theorem says that no program can correctly decide what an arbitrary program will do , not that no properties of programs can be proven. There are useful programs about which non-trivial properties can be, and have been, proven, and Rice's theorem is no limit on the complexity of an individual program about which a property may be prove…

My argument is as follows. You're right, and I'm appealing to a stronger Wolfram-esque version of Rice, together with the fact that humans readily throw non-essential goals under the bus in pursuit of speed. * Building AI is a race against time, and in such races, victory is most easily achieved by those who can cut the most corners while still successfully producing the product. * As a route to general AI, a neural…

1. I'm not sure that I agree. Not all research is a race against time. But, perhaps you're right, I'll accept this.

2. Certainly the most plausible thing we have now, I'm not sure that that makes it plausible, but better than anything else. so okay.

3. This depends on what you mean. Neural Networks are actually significantly easier to analyze than arbitrary programs, when you essentially restrict yourself to two operations (multiplication and sigmoid or ReLU), things get a lot easier to analyze. Here are some questions we can answer about a neural network that we can't about an arbitrary program: "Will this halt for this input?", "Will this halt for all inputs?", "What will a mild perturbation of this input have on the output?", these are as a consequence of fineiteness and differentiability, which are not attributes that a normal program has. (caveat: this gets more difficult with things like RNNs and NTMs, but afaik is still true). The questions that we find difficult answer for a Neural Network are very different than for a normal program: namely "How did this network arrive at these weights as opposed to these other ones?" and related "What does this weight or set of weights represent?", but I don't think that there's any indication that those questions are impossible to answer (and often we can answer them, like for facial recognition networks where we can clearly see that successive layers detect gradients, curves, facial features, and then eventually entire faces)

4. Agreed. There's no real reason to know why it works if it works.

5. I think you can tell, but I don't think this holds.

Re: Open Philanthropy Project awards a grant of $30M to OpenAI

#167
post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Technological advancement has been responsible for most of the increases in human welfare, most notably allowing us to (at least temporally) escape the Malthusian condition. It's not implausible that technical research likely to be neglected by markets and academia could be a better use of money than even the most efficient African charity. But I drink the AI-is-very-likely-to-change-everything-we-really-mean-it-this…

OpenAI still isn't open source, or open in any other sense of the word. It is a private organization that will own any technology developed. Again, OpenAI isn't Open.

I don't want to pick a side in this, but OpenAI does seem to have published some open source software projects on GitHub, all that I have checked under the MIT license. (https://github.com/openai?type=source ). This is not a high bar to cross, as even Microsoft or Facebook do that, but I have also not found any evidence, on their website, of projects that they have not released as free software. The fact that they are planning not to publish technologies, if there are "safety concerns", in the future, is a different matter, but then given their claims, that is exactly what they should be doing. Clearly, one could argue that in that potential future, OpenAI will become a misnomer (disregarding the issue of what actually should be done), but at the moment it appears that all of OpenAI still _is_ open source.

Re: Open Philanthropy Project awards a grant of $30M to OpenAI

#168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Note that this says "per expert". I'm not sure what exactly you'd consider an "expert", but I think a reasonable definition of "expert" could result in your average expert being a million-dollar-a-year engineer.

Does a thing like a million a year engineer exist? I feel like this number would make more sense for a pool of researchers with a strong lead than a single person.

While I obviously don't know for sure, I'm quite confident that there are a nonzero number of employees at any very large Tech Company that are engineers (ie. do development work, commit nontrivial code), and whose compensation is over $1,000,000 USD. I doubt its common, and I would expect that many of those employees are not "just" engineers (ie. at the point where you are doing work that is that valuable, its almost a certainty that you are leading a team, and you are designing things), but I'm confident they exist.

Re: Open Philanthropy Project awards a grant of $30M to OpenAI

#169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is pretty unbelievable, since it's not true. The actual quote: >OpenAI researchers Dario Amodei and Paul Christiano are both technical advisors to Open Philanthropy and live in the same house as Holden. In addition, Holden is engaged to Dario’s sister Daniela. His roommates/sister's fiancé work there. That's all.

Holden is engaged to the sister of the guy he is funding. Hence, "future brother-in-law".

That's not a response to my comment.

Re: Open Philanthropy Project awards a grant of $30M to OpenAI

#170
post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I scrolled to the end and can see why someone would question that. But framing it as a personal grant is misleading. If we're going to keep telling users that on HN we want them to make substantive points thoughtfully and apply the principle of charity, it's only fair to say so here as well. We like pith, but fairness more. (In case anyone is curious, I don't know anything about the story; I just saw it on HN.)

Do you/YC have any personal or financial connection to the "Open Philanthropy Project"? Just curious.

I don't know if this counts, but YC funds the Centre for Effective Altruism and 80,000 Hours. CEA, 80k, and OPP are all part of the "effective altruism" ecosystem, and it is not hard to find personal connections between them. (For example, CEA recently launched "EA Funds", which are managed by employees of OPP.)

The connection is not direct. There may be more direct connections between YC and OPP, but I am not aware of any.

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