Entropy and diminishing returns from readily accessible energy sources will kick in at some point. My guess is it'll happen before the robots are more adaptable to changing road conditions than humans.
American truck drivers could lose their jobs to robots
161–170 of 170 posts
Re: American truck drivers could lose their jobs to robots
#162Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's not that every single driver will be gone - just a lot of them will be. There used to be a lot of jobs at stables, horse shoe replacement, etc. Today there are a lot of jobs changing oil, mufflers, tune-ups etc, that will go away with the switch to electric cars, but one big truck can carry a lot more freight than a big wagon train, and it needs less human labor. EVs will still need work, they are designed and m…
> Today there are a lot of jobs changing oil, mufflers, tune-ups etc, that will go away with the switch to electric cars. But that isn't much of an issue with big rigs, nor with cars generally. The engine/powertrain isn't a big maintenance item on new cars. Engine internals are a very evolved and reliable bit of kit. It's the other things like brakes, wheels, control systems and electrics are the source of most maint…
Those points are all very weak. You seem to be in denial that the vast number of automotive jobs are going to be eradicated even when they are reskilled to cater for the newer systems that are coming.
Re: American truck drivers could lose their jobs to robots
#163Earlier quoted context omitted.
>The article cites $40k average pay per driver. That's fast-food wages Not really. That's basically $20/hour full-time.
HN tends to be ludicrously out of touch when it comes to wages/salaries.
Out of touch is right! Even in Manhattan you can easily live fine on $40k with savings left over, at least if you have no dependents or health financing problems (eg expensive health condition coupled with bad insurance). In most of the USA, a $20/hr job with benefits counts as a good job.
Re: American truck drivers could lose their jobs to robots
#164I'm skeptical about the timelines of these reports. Certainly we'll never see all 1.8 million drivers lose their jobs overnight. These guys are predicting auto-truck apocalypse in 5-10 years, and we still don't have a single commercial system on the road that's capable of even lightening the load on a driver, much less replacing him. I think truck automation will go in 2 ways at the same time, and we can watch the pr…
I dunno. Even if "all" the first generation can do is freeway driving (and let's say, not even urban freeway, just "easy" rural portions of freeway) that seems like it still would make the vast majority of long-haul trucking jobs vanish -- just by definition of "long-haul."
If you ship something from New York to Chicago by truck and it takes 14 hours, maybe the first and last hour or so are getting in an out of the source/destination cities. That leaves 12 out of 14 hours where the truck can drive unattended, eliminating the need for about 12/14 of the truckers (or their work hours) that drive that route.
It depends on what proportion of truck drivers today mostly do long-haul as opposed to short haul. I have no idea.
Re: American truck drivers could lose their jobs to robots
#165The other question you need to ask in order to understand this future scenerio:. Shipping costs will significantly decrease, what will consumers and shareholders spend the extra money on? Who knows what they will spend the extra money on, could be healthcare, boats, TVs, whatever. But new jobs will be created in these expanded industries. It really, really bothers me the constant "x technology will drive x people out…
Retraining a farmer's kid to be a riveter on a bridge construction project in the late C18/early C20 is a whole lot more feasible than retraining a 40yo professional driver for the jobs opened up by their obsolescence, such as rocket surgery and brain engineering.
What about retraining a truck driver's kid?
You're not comparing apples to apples.
Re: American truck drivers could lose their jobs to robots
#166I'm skeptical about the timelines of these reports. Certainly we'll never see all 1.8 million drivers lose their jobs overnight. These guys are predicting auto-truck apocalypse in 5-10 years, and we still don't have a single commercial system on the road that's capable of even lightening the load on a driver, much less replacing him. I think truck automation will go in 2 ways at the same time, and we can watch the pr…
I dunno. Even if "all" the first generation can do is freeway driving (and let's say, not even urban freeway, just "easy" rural portions of freeway) that seems like it still would make the vast majority of long-haul trucking jobs vanish -- just by definition of "long-haul." If you ship something from New York to Chicago by truck and it takes 14 hours, maybe the first and last hour or so are getting in an out of the s…
I'm not deep into the freight industry, but I have a few acquaintances who are, and reportedly a lot of the actual shipments that take place are between unrelated companies who only moderately trust each other. The freight company is contracted by one or the other for the route, and usually the truck itself is owned independently by the driver, with the freight company providing the routes and organization of loads.
The truck owner isn't going to trust some random other driver halfway across the country to drive his truck, even if he trusts the auto-driver to navigate the freeway safely. The freight company isn't going to just trust the shipper and receiver to load and unload the right stuff properly and not disturb anything else on the truck. The shipper and receiver aren't going to just trust each other and the freight company to ship the right stuff to the right place - they all want somebody in the truck there who knows what's going on.
Basically, the drivers don't just drive, they're the glue that holds together a whole complex system. Even if we had a perfect auto-drive truck today, it would probably take decades to figure out systems that work well enough that shipments work right without somebody who knows what's going on in the truck. Like I said, I think the best we can hope for short-term is to take some of the load of actually driving off the drivers, leading to longer trips and fewer stops.
That's also why I said that the only companies in a position to really use auto-trucks are those who already have integrated logistics chains, where drivers who work for the company drive company-owned trucks between company warehouses to move goods that the company either already owns or has taken responsibility for tracking.
Re: American truck drivers could lose their jobs to robots
#167Earlier quoted context omitted.
Don't kid yourself. New jobs get created, but fewer. And many of those who lose their jobs don't get retrained—for a myriad of reasons—and end up leaving the workforce entirely. Many just end up on long term disability because it's the only path they have. Jobs are disappearing. They aren't "coming back" in greater numbers. And the new jobs, by and large, aren't for the previous workforce. We already live in a world…
UBI is inevitably doomed, because the equation doesn't hold. You are right that ongoing elimination of jobs is a problem leading to huge social unrest, and UBI fits the bill to be a good solution for this. The only problem with UBI is that it is unsustainable and therefore impossible. The balance just doesn't check out. The mere retirement schemes are in grave danger of collapse; the money there are long spent. UBI i…
You can't really say definitely that the equations won't work without some details. If the UBI level was similar to unemployment benefit / social security and workers received it but had less tax allowances then the payments could work out about the same as they do now.
Re: American truck drivers could lose their jobs to robots
#168Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Today there are a lot of jobs changing oil, mufflers, tune-ups etc, that will go away with the switch to electric cars. But that isn't much of an issue with big rigs, nor with cars generally. The engine/powertrain isn't a big maintenance item on new cars. Engine internals are a very evolved and reliable bit of kit. It's the other things like brakes, wheels, control systems and electrics are the source of most maint…
Those points are all very weak. You seem to be in denial that the vast number of automotive jobs are going to be eradicated even when they are reskilled to cater for the newer systems that are coming.
And you seem to have converted to a tech that has yet to see the road. Come back when we have some actual labour data, not speculation. I've seen many automotive techs come (FI, antilocks, engine management, collision avoidance, onstar) each with warnings about diminished labor costs, warnings mostly from people who couldn't change their own brake pads. Yet little has changed.
Re: American truck drivers could lose their jobs to robots
#169Earlier quoted context omitted.
In what way is this different than the industrial revolution? Are we, as a world, wallowing in relatively more people starving and in poverty than ever before? Why is this different?
It is certainly worth talking about how to make things better, but all the stats I've ever seen indicate that the global incidence of poverty has been decreasing, not increasing. For example, from: http://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/poverty/overview > According to the most recent estimates, in 2012, 12.7 percent of the world’s population lived at or below $1.90 a day. That’s down from 37 percent in 1990 and 44 percent…
Yes, that's the conclusion I was hoping people would come to if they looked at the stats. :)
Re: American truck drivers could lose their jobs to robots
#170Earlier quoted context omitted.
Don't kid yourself. New jobs get created, but fewer. And many of those who lose their jobs don't get retrained—for a myriad of reasons—and end up leaving the workforce entirely. Many just end up on long term disability because it's the only path they have. Jobs are disappearing. They aren't "coming back" in greater numbers. And the new jobs, by and large, aren't for the previous workforce. We already live in a world…
UBI is inevitably doomed, because the equation doesn't hold. You are right that ongoing elimination of jobs is a problem leading to huge social unrest, and UBI fits the bill to be a good solution for this. The only problem with UBI is that it is unsustainable and therefore impossible. The balance just doesn't check out. The mere retirement schemes are in grave danger of collapse; the money there are long spent. UBI i…
People will have to adapt to a new way of life. We are going to move into a world where full employment means 50% of people don't work, because there is nothing for them to do. Like the computer, the cost of everything will begin to decline rapidly when general purpose robots and automation take over human tasks. The UBI equation may well balance. When there are no human costs the only cost is energy. In theory, you will need far less income.
Honestly, I'm excited to see what happens as it will happen in my lifetime. 30 years ago we had the first general purpose computers. Look at where we are now. Today we have the first general purpose robots. Imagine where we will be in 30 years. It's hard to imagine.
Drivers, construction workers, doctors, lawyers—it's all going to be dramatically different 30 years from now. Forget the US. All those jobs making everything from iPhones to t-shirts will also be at risk. When you don't need specialized equipment and you can buy a robot that can make t-shirts for a few thousand dollars you don't need the human anymore.
If not UBI, then what? What do all these people do?