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One-third of SF Bay Area residents hope to leave soon, poll finds

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Re: One-third of SF Bay Area residents hope to leave soon, poll finds

#161

Post by _delirium »

davidw wrote: post #155
_delirium wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Taxing vacant real estate is another tool used in some countries and cities. One way of doing it is via an imputed rental income: if a property is not owner-occupied, then the owners are deemed to be earning a rental income (either market rate, or if rent-controlled, then whatever the set rate is), regardless of whether they actually bother to rent it out or not. That increases the cost of sitting on empty housing. (…

Yeah, something like that might work too, although it can be kind of invasive in the sense that now you need to check if people are living in a place. In Italy, that meant that the police send someone around for a look inside the house where you say you recently moved to. In theory, at least - they don't always.

I guess it's easier in countries with some kind of address register. Denmark doesn't police it with physical police, just through the address register: you have an official principle residence, and can only list one. So by definition any other property you own is not owner-occupied. (At least in the cities, I think second homes outside the cities are handled differently.)

You can get away with some cheating there, e.g. a couple who live together can claim to be living separately and rent the second one out under the table, or someone who lives with their parents can be dabbling in under-the-table real estate with an investment property they don't really live in. But it at least keeps it to that kind of small-scale thing; the couple can pretend to owner-occupy two properties when they really live in one, but they can't do it with five.

Re: One-third of SF Bay Area residents hope to leave soon, poll finds

#163

Post by bkjelden »

I'm one of those in the 1/3rd, currently in the process of moving to the Denver/Boulder area.

I knew on paper the housing would be cheaper, but what's stood out to me is how much less crowded it is:

You can go to stores and find parking, and not wait 15 minutes at the cashier.

You can go to restaurants and actually get a table.

You can make unprotected left turns.

Things are busy during rush hour, but outside of that it's really not bad, and overall it doesn't perpetually feel like the infrastructure is about to collapse under the weight of being so far over-capacity.

There are some things I will miss, but I keep reminding myself that I can fly back to SF cheaply (or anywhere in the US from DEN, really) and hit all of my favorite spots. I am a little afraid I won't be able to find the same quality fruits and vegetables.

When I moved out to the bay area, I thought it would be great to have so many job opportunities and career flexibility. But now as I'm leaving I feel like that wasn't all it's built up to be. Having some options if your employment situation goes south is important, but I don't really need to change jobs every 18 months, or have 5 cold calls from recruiters in my inbox every week. I'd truly rather find a company where I am a good fit and just stay put for a few years.

I also think that is in some ways healthier too: having a bit higher switching cost forces you to learn how to work out some disagreements with your employer and boss, instead of just leaving at the drop of a hat.

Re: One-third of SF Bay Area residents hope to leave soon, poll finds

#164

Post by davidw »

_delirium wrote: post #133
davidw wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What would make it a less interesting investment is if there were a credible threat to add enough supply to devalue it. That's generally how markets keep prices regulated: if they go up enough, more people jump in to producing the good. That mechanism is severely broken in the Bay Area, among other popular places in the US.

That depends on a lot of factors. Manhattan is an example of a building boom not necessarily increasing supply or lowering prices: a lot of the building boom involved demolition of older, cheaper apartment buildings that were subdivided into small units, to be replaced with newer, higher-end apartment units subdivided into larger units. Net square footage increased, but square footage isn't identical to number of hou…

Article about Manhattan rental prices dropping: http://ny.curbed.com/2016/4/7/11381852/manhattan-market-repo...

Re: One-third of SF Bay Area residents hope to leave soon, poll finds

#165

Post by hkmurakami »

rayiner wrote: post #93
avn2109 wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> "...but not both." What about Chicago. Way cheaper than New York, and has the second best train system in the country.

You can have affordable housing, good mass transit, and jobs. Pick two.

Finance seems to be a strong employer there, no?

Re: One-third of SF Bay Area residents hope to leave soon, poll finds

#166

Post by hkmurakami »

bronson wrote: post #51
oxryly1 wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can have good mass transit or affordable housing, but not both. This sucks.

Or, as the Bay Area demonstrates, neither.

Well there's definitely an inverse correlation between housing costs and convenience of travel. Apartments near Caltrain stations or in SF being more expensive than those that are farther away, etc.

Re: One-third of SF Bay Area residents hope to leave soon, poll finds

#167

Post by kurttheviking »

muzz wrote: post #105
ethbro wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just tax unused properties at a higher rate. Speculative investment wouldn't be as bad if they were rented.

A Texas-sized property tax rate would do the trick

Or, a proper Land Value Tax[1]

[1]http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2014/11/ec...

Re: One-third of SF Bay Area residents hope to leave soon, poll finds

#168

Post by mdorazio »

bkjelden wrote: post #163

I'm one of those in the 1/3rd, currently in the process of moving to the Denver/Boulder area. I knew on paper the housing would be cheaper, but what's stood out to me is how much less crowded it is: You can go to stores and find parking, and not wait 15 minutes at the cashier. You can go to restaurants and actually get a table. You can make unprotected left turns. Things are busy during rush hour, but outside of that…

Are you sure about these things? I feel like this sentiment reflects the Denver/Boulder area 2-3 years ago, but the recent influx of so many people with the exact same thought process as you has significantly dampened the lower population density appeal. For example, I was in Denver in November and there were lines out the door for pretty much every trendy restaurant and dessert place downtown, and traffic was decidedly not pleasant.

Re: One-third of SF Bay Area residents hope to leave soon, poll finds

#169

Post by bubbleRefuge »

rubicon33 wrote: post #59
windlep wrote: post #5

I'm sure the fact that there's an increasing trend of empty Chinese investment properties isn't helping. I grew up in Cupertino, and when I visit my parents there, I'm rather shocked at how downhill the neighborhood has gone in parts. It's crazy that these old 70's tract homes go for 1.5 million. Even more insane is that they're bought and then left empty to go downhill. Literally broken windows and paint falling off…

> "I'm sure the fact that there's an increasing trend of empty Chinese investment properties isn't helping." This. This. This. A couple of years ago, I found myself utterly shocked by the price of homes in San Francisco. In a fit of frustration, I fired off a few emails a few random real estate firms in SF, asking one simple question: "Who the BLEEP can afford these homes?" You see, I was frustrated. I have a great j…

Same thing happening in South Florida only buyers are South American oligarchs/crooks. A good fix would be to charge much higher property tax rates for non-owner occupied single family residences.

Re: One-third of SF Bay Area residents hope to leave soon, poll finds

#170

Post by trhway »

yolesaber wrote: post #122
trhway wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Haven't tried myself, yet huge crowds of incoming people can't be that wrong :) In particular i think only CA has non-recognition of non-competes (and moonlighting protection too if i remember right) while the rest of US - doesn't.

Yeah because the herd mentality has shown to be correct so often. C'mon you know what you are saying is wrong. I worked in SV/SF and now live in NYC and I much prefer the tech scene here. In fact there's a massive shortage of programmers so you could actually make more money in NYC. But you don't even need to live there. You can work remote. Programming is one of the only jobs you can do literally from anywhere.

>Programming is one of the only jobs you can do literally from anywhere

you're putting theory ahead of practice. We're talking right now inside of one more thread where programmers discuss how hard it is to live in BA - don't you feel any contradiction between that fact and your statement?

You with your theory reminded me about that joke yesterday in Prairie Home Companion : "People of Galveston can look in the eye of reality and dismiss it" :)

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