How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get? • Hacker News Board

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#161

Post by dragontamer » Thu, Apr 28, 2016, 9:21 PM UTC

mikeyouse wrote: post #120

mark-r wrote: post #49

Such an interesting premise, such a flawed assumption... An electric car shares most of its parts with a gas one, so you can't expect any savings from economies of scale there. Going back to the Model T for the cost curve is just laughable.

> An electric car shares most of its parts with a gas one Definitely depends on how you qualify 'most'. An electric car has nearly none of the mechanical complexity of an ICE car. Look at the engine bay and undercarriage of a typical internal combustion car: http://i.imgur.com/uDxSsR2.jpg Gas tank, fuel lines, transmission, engine, drive shaft, spark plugs / distributor cap, muffler, exhaust system, fuel pump, engine…

> Gas tank, fuel lines, transmission, engine, drive shaft, spark plugs / distributor cap, muffler, exhaust system, fuel pump, engine, air intake, turbo/super chargers if necessary, oil pumps / reservoirs, etc. -- many hundreds of parts can be shaved off of full electric cars.

Battery software, Battery management, Battery coolant. Electric Drivetrain.

The Drivetrain in particular seems to be rather complicated. Consider that Edmunds was forced to replace their Drivetrain FOUR times in two years: http://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-s/2013/long-term-road-tes...

Note that modern engines have a lot of parts because we KNOW which parts wear out over time. Spark Plugs for example wear out, and its very simple to replace spark plugs to recondition an ICE engine.

What wears out in an electric vehicle? Do the permanent magnets in the induction motor require replacement in 10 years? Nobody knows! Probably not, but there's probably something in there that needs replacement (due to rust or whatnot).

Eventually, electric motors will grow to have more parts. Not because they NEED more parts, but because we will learn what parts SHOULD have replacing.

Replacing a $4000 drivetrain whenever "something" is wrong? That's a problem. Replacing the $1000 permanent magnet in the induction motor? Well, that will be a better problem, but will require long-term testing before Tesla is able to discover (let alone solve) those problems.

Consider this: Hard Drives have more moving parts than Solid State Drives, as do Tape Drives. Yet we place more trust in them than SSDs because we really don't know the failure modes of SSDs.

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#162

Post by [deleted] » Thu, Apr 28, 2016, 9:26 PM UTC

pmontra wrote: post #13

A car sharing service in Milan, Italy, is using small two seater electric cars from China. Prompted by this article I finally investigated and found them at http://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/China-eec-l7e-80-elect... They're quoted with a maximum price of $8000. They're definitely made for driving inside a city. Not very good suspensions (don't drive too fast on cobble stones) but good torque (easily beats a gas…

[deleted]

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#163

Post by donretag » Thu, Apr 28, 2016, 9:30 PM UTC

Subsidies must have some effect on the price. As the government subsidies for electric vehicles diminishes, the overall price diminishes as well.

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#164

Post by elihu » Thu, Apr 28, 2016, 9:34 PM UTC

pkorzeniewski wrote: post #15

dsfyu404ed wrote: post #12

A cheap used economy car will still have the lowest cost per mile for a very long time.... When you factor purchase price into the equation gas vehicles win by a long ways since you need X years of EV economy cars on the market before you can get an X year old used EV. EV's will need to fill the same market segment as today's Chevy Aveos and Toyota Yarii (plural of Yaris?) for a decade or more before they're competit…

The main goal of the car industry (actually almost every industry, but car is one of the most expensive things people buy in their life, with the biggest impact on environment) is to make people buy new car every few years, even if the old one is perfectly fine - they want you to feel like you're missing something in life by driving the "old model". I'm probably biased, because I drive a 1998 Mercedes, but I could ea…

I drive a 1996 Civic and feel about the same way. I'll get a new car eventually (and getting an electric does sound awfully appealing, once they start selling models with good range for a reasonable price), but a lot of modern "features" like over-the-air updates seem awfully big-brotherish to me.

One of the things I like about my current car is that it can't be remotely bricked by the manufacturer, it doesn't have any built-in location tracking hardware, there's no way to wirelessly access any of the critical electronic components, and no need to apply security patches.

It's hard to think of modern cars as anything other than a rolling malware vector. Some of these cars will be on the road for thirty or forty years. What happens when the manufacturer stops patching their bugs after three or ten or twenty years?

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#165

Post by marincounty » Thu, Apr 28, 2016, 9:37 PM UTC

tamana wrote: post #57

ZeroGravitas wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or you'll be wishing that the drunk driver was in a smaller vehicle. Or you'll be the one running over a child (possibly your own) and you'll be wishing that your car was smaller or had better visibility as you reversed. Making up unpleasant stories is fine, but at some point actual numbers and statistics are required, and everyone getting larger and larger cars in some kind of arms race seems to have obvious downsid…

I suspect rearview camera/sensors are far better protection against bulldozing than small cars. No car is small enough to show a toddler under your tires.

Off subject, but I'm surprised better rear view cameras/sensors are not being manufactured right now. I'm not talking about just a camera though.

Could anyone imagine a a smart camera, with a display. The camera/computer would assist the driver in seeing better at night. Would calculate the odds of a police cruiser behind you. Would warn of potential danger, like an animal on the side of the road. Would warn you if you are being followed. Would be so well designed, you still used your rear view, but kicked in at the needed times? Would map out likely spots police hide? Could even be tied into physiological body sensors? "Today is not a good day to drive? Watch out for ice. Watch you temper?"

The camera/sensors would have to be easily installed, like a stereo?

I would buy one if programmed right, and the cost was justifiable.

Then again there's someting beautiful about a simple chrome rear view mirror. A driver knowing they need to drive with all senses fully engaged, with no assistance other than experience, and good coordination.

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#166

Post by Shebanator » Thu, Apr 28, 2016, 9:39 PM UTC

Someone1234 wrote: post #79

S_A_P wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel like the size = safety is fallacious. Size can equal safety, but its not a guarantee. Sure I would not want to get hit by a 3 ton lifted SUV with ranch style bumpers on it. I would feel that way even if what I were driving was a 3 ton suv with the same bumpers. There was an NHTSA video a few years back of a modern chevy impala hitting a 1959 impala and the much larger 59 getting demolished, while the new one h…

This issue was covered in great depth when the Smart Car (e.g. Fortwo) got popular in Europe. Smart Cars have a lot of safety features, seat belts, airbags (4x), ABS, stability control, but the question was really about impact distribution. They put in a tridion protection cell[0] and moved the engine to the back to offer SOME crumple at the front. The Euro NCAP rated it 4/5, IIHS rated it "good" but it later failed…

The IIHS published a study[0] a little more than a year ago which found that the Smart Car wasn't actually that bad in terms of driver deaths per million registered vehicle years (2011 and equivalent earlier models, 2009-12).

In its class (which only had 3 cars), the Mini was safer than the Smart but the Hyundai Accent was much much worse.

But there were lots of bigger cars that were at the same rating or worse:

* Buick Lacrosse 2WD

* Cadillac DTS

* Cadillac Escalade 4WD

* Chevrolet Camaro

* Chevrolet Silverado 1500 Ext 4WD

* Chevrolet Silverado 1500 Crew 4WD

* Chevrolet Suburban 1500 2WD

* Ford Expedition 2WD

* Ford F-150 Super 4WD 39

* Mercury Grand Marquis

* Toyota Avalon

* Toyota Tundra Crew Max 2WD

[0] http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/Driver_DeathRates_sr5001_e...

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#167

Post by Gibbon1 » Thu, Apr 28, 2016, 10:21 PM UTC

Retric wrote: post #88

Someone1234 wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This issue was covered in great depth when the Smart Car (e.g. Fortwo) got popular in Europe. Smart Cars have a lot of safety features, seat belts, airbags (4x), ABS, stability control, but the question was really about impact distribution. They put in a tridion protection cell[0] and moved the engine to the back to offer SOME crumple at the front. The Euro NCAP rated it 4/5, IIHS rated it "good" but it later failed…

If your driving in a city and never break 45mph then overall risks change significantly. I drive a relatively small car for the US, and it's about the minimum I would consider safe at 70MPH. But, if you are spending 98% of your time in the city then simply renting a larger car becomes very viable. You can rent a mid size SUV at ~600$ per week and for a longer vacation you can upsize for minimal cost. Further, if your…

What I remember from driving class was that the risk factors change depending on urban, suburban, rural. In urban areas car vs pedestrian accidents are common. Accidents involving cars as you said are typically low speed accidents.

In Rural areas the opposite is true. High speed car vs car and car vs tree accidents are most common.

Though bigger doesn't equal safer. I remember someone else pointing out that large vehicles don't increase safety overall, they decrease it. If you consider two large trucks hitting each other is typically worse than two smaller passenger vehicles doing the same. It's only large truck vs small car that is slightly safer. Less than one might think because large vehicles tend to roll over more often.

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#168

Post by schwabacher » Thu, Apr 28, 2016, 10:23 PM UTC

vvanders wrote: post #107

JshWright wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The thing 'size' gets you is crumple zones. A bigger vehicle has a lot more material that can be engineered to deform and absorb the energy of the impact, spreading the deceleration over a longer period of time. A small car can be designed to prevent intrusion into the passenger compartment, but it can't do anything about the g-forces of the collision (which can seriously ruin your day...).

Yup, it's important to note that with Electric Vehicles you get more crumple zone too, which is partly why Tesla has such a high safety rating.

And more mass (the battery)

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#169

Post by Vendan » Thu, Apr 28, 2016, 10:29 PM UTC

dragontamer wrote: post #161

mikeyouse wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> An electric car shares most of its parts with a gas one Definitely depends on how you qualify 'most'. An electric car has nearly none of the mechanical complexity of an ICE car. Look at the engine bay and undercarriage of a typical internal combustion car: http://i.imgur.com/uDxSsR2.jpg Gas tank, fuel lines, transmission, engine, drive shaft, spark plugs / distributor cap, muffler, exhaust system, fuel pump, engine…

> Gas tank, fuel lines, transmission, engine, drive shaft, spark plugs / distributor cap, muffler, exhaust system, fuel pump, engine, air intake, turbo/super chargers if necessary, oil pumps / reservoirs, etc. -- many hundreds of parts can be shaved off of full electric cars. Battery software, Battery management, Battery coolant. Electric Drivetrain. The Drivetrain in particular seems to be rather complicated. Consid…

You may place more faith in HDD, but I place my faith in SSD, cause it lacks the failure cases that HDD's have. For instance, I can drop my laptop and not worry about the HDD, I don't have to worry about strong magnetic fields, and so on. And there has been extensive testing done on SSDs.

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#170

Post by Gibbon1 » Thu, Apr 28, 2016, 10:46 PM UTC

madaxe_again wrote: post #72

TheCowboy wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where are you getting the information that stop/start is inefficient and costly for fracking? It's less than conventional oil wells. I've found a significant cost of fracking is establishing the wells. If the price goes up that much, fracking is viable and will happen. The only way fracking is out of the equation if when low prices keep it from being profitable. Fracking presently functions as a cap on the price. If…

Info mostly comes from banter with energy market traders who are getting ready for a mixture of feast and bloodbath. I used to work a futures desk, mostly on intermediates. I got a decent sense of the market in those few years, and watching it is an ongoing pastime. Re: the specifics around fracking start/stop - it's staff. You either retain salaried workers who are unproductive for stretches, or you work contractors…

I like how you got down voted for reporting your first hand knowledge.

I used to deal with a guy in the oil business. Reselling valves pumps and misc plumbing. Nothing in that business is cheap. Just remembered, Shell? did a drilling project few years ago in northern Canada. Spent $2 billion to drill deep wells into what looked like a large reservoir of oil and it was dry. And that wasn't $2 billion in paper funny money, that was $2 billion spent on stuff.