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Dropbox May Not Be LeBron James, but Is Still in the Game

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Re: Dropbox May Not Be LeBron James, but Is Still in the Game

#161

Post by rajacombinator »

pyrrhotech wrote: post #16

I'd be shocked if Dropbox is still in business in 5 years. It's kind of sad because it was the first mover and I loved the service when it was the only one, but now there are a million options that are probably just as good. Not to mention they've never made a dime on me personally or anyone I know (and as I understand it that's true for 95% of their user-base). Our company actually banned Dropbox.com because we deci…

I agree but it's from mismanagement/sprawl/lack of focus rather than poor macros. If storage costs and storage needs are really going down then I would be much more likely to use a cloud storage service. I would much rather have some "it just works" cloud magic but as it is right now they are just not economical for individual users. Are storage costs really decreasing? There haven't been any price drops on consumer HDs in years and I don't recall any S3 price drops recently...

Re: Dropbox May Not Be LeBron James, but Is Still in the Game

#162

Post by acdha »

overcast wrote: post #5
zyxley wrote: post #2

People stick with Dropbox for a simple reason: they do the syncing thing faster and more painlessly than anyone else out there. If Apple ever gets their act together and makes iCloud actually fast and reliable a syncing service, Dropbox might be in trouble.

What's the actual issue with iCloud? It takes three seconds to turn it on, and select what I want to sync. Done. Backing up, syncing calendars, contacts, and notes to all my devices with zero problem.

When (not if) it breaks, you're screwed: no way to get access to the data, the client is completely opaque and there's no logging or a way to reset it. When it stops syncing, or they “handle” a network or server error by silently logging you out, you won't know until you miss a meeting or use stale data.

The main reason I pay for Dropbox is that simple model. I have a full copy on every machine, and if my internet connection fails, they go down, or something breaks I can just copy files like normal. If I see something odd, there's a full log & the ability to revert any changes.

There are times where boring is good and your core personal data is one of them.

Re: Dropbox May Not Be LeBron James, but Is Still in the Game

#163

Post by gizi »

I stopped using Dropbox after the Snowden revelations broke loose. Dropbox does not use end-to-end encryption. You have to encrypt by yourself.

That is not particularly hard, but it still means that you are storing your files in a honeypot from which the NSA regularly draws a juicy feed.

Especially users outside the USA should never use a cloud service that lacks automatic end-to-end encryption.

As a non-American, you would also reveal your identity (along with your data) to a host of American surveillance agencies by paying by credit card. So, that is another non-starter. Along with unencrypted data, that is just an accident waiting to happen. They would store your dropbox data alongside Angela Merkel's digitized private phone calls to her husband. "I love you honey!". Seriously, I pay for cloud services only with bitcoin.

Re: Dropbox May Not Be LeBron James, but Is Still in the Game

#164

Post by rokhayakebe »

CPLX wrote: post #139
rokhayakebe wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not every investor is looking for a 10X. DB raised 1.17B, with 1.1 of those in the last three rounds (according to Crunchbase). The last three rounds were 250M,350M, and 500M. A round was 6M. Say A round wanted 100x. B round 10X. C round 7x. D round 5x. That will bring the total expected return to around 8B. However I am sure C and D would not mind a 3X or 2X, while B would probably settled happily for a 5X.

Now add the implications of liquidation preferences (presumably) to the math and you'll see things get a lot more challenging.

Yeah, however even a liquidation preference will be 1x,2x.

Re: Dropbox May Not Be LeBron James, but Is Still in the Game

#165

Post by inthewoods »

I think they missed their opportunity - namely what they're doing with Paper now. I like Dropbox a lot, but most people I know work with Google Drive/Docs. The whole idea of "files", to me, is becoming more and more abstract and remote. I'd probably find more use for Dropbox if I was using Office 365, but then there is OneDrive for that.

Bottomline, I have less need for Dropbox outside of backing up photos. And there are any number of services for backing up photos that are frankly better from a usage PoV (though not from a syncing PoV where they are clearly better). I have an iPhone - I used iCloud to download the pictures to my MBP and then have Google Sync running to push them to Google Photos. iCloud's photo service is still pretty terrible - but using this method I get all the goodness of Google Photos (e.g. let me find all the pictures of my dog or my kid).

Re: Dropbox May Not Be LeBron James, but Is Still in the Game

#166

Post by ericfrenkiel »

mattzito wrote: post #66
tyre wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Better than a loss-maker, but that's a low bar. For all of the employees that received options based on the inflated $10bn valuation, not a good problem to have. This is the danger of VCs wanting everyone to be a unicorn, and structuring their firms around that mindset. I agree that a $5bn or $2bn company is fantastic. Until those with capital agree, however, founders are almost required to pitch a fantasy.

I obviously don't know the specifics of the dropbox option pool, but it's not uncommon to have employee options issued at a 409(a) valuation instead of the fundraising valuation. So even if money was raised at a 10bn valuation based on the expectation of future value, a 409(a) valuation would probably place the company at somewhere closer to 10-40% of that, which puts employees in a much better situation.

Common hasn't been close to 10% in a loong while - common is likely presently valued at >75% of Preferred. Anything 1/9 to 1/11 is strictly seed-level discounts for common to preferred. Dropbox may even be at a point where it's no longer options but RSUs.

When common is equal to prefererd, you have a public stock price.

Re: Dropbox May Not Be LeBron James, but Is Still in the Game

#167

Post by libraryatnight »

jl6 wrote: post #48
azinman2 wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I pay for Dropbox, and their sync is the industry's best. They'll be here in 5. 10 is the bigger question mark when files go away.

Files will never go away.

Probably not for 'power' (does that work?) users, but for people like my mom they're pretty much already gone. They started disappearing for her when iTunes was dumping her music into a directory and she had no idea, to her it was indistinguishable from how Spotify works, so now that everything streams like magic she pays zero attention to files or the idea of files. She thinks in terms of galleries, not image files. If I open some sort of file explorer in front of her, I've just gotten 'techy' on her.

A few years ago when I was doing a help desk job, the sentiment was similar. I asked a user to navigate to a directory on Windows and he stopped me. He said, "Hold it now, I'm not a computer person."

So maybe not 'go away,' but perhaps become increasingly invisible and especially so to average users.

Re: Dropbox May Not Be LeBron James, but Is Still in the Game

#168

Post by tamana »

unabst wrote: post #120
zer0defex wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nail on the head right here. The only thing Dropbox has these days is consumer confidence in it's syncing process. Beyond that, they trail every competitor feature-wise and frankly, they are succeeding despite their management, not because of it. Recent product enhancements have been, let's be honest, mediocre at best across the board and show no signs of that changing anytime soon. They exist now solely due to brand…

I loved Dropbox for its simplicity, the fact that it has MIT in its genes, it not being Microsoft or Google, and for Carousel. But my dropbox was super slow in Japan, MS Office products keep spawning conflicting copies, Photoshop randomly pauses batch processing because of sync file locking, and they are shutting down Carousel. So I am moving to Google Drive. All the frustrations above are not unique to me. Dropbox e…

The grass is greener... Report back on whether your new service is faster than DB.

Re: Dropbox May Not Be LeBron James, but Is Still in the Game

#169

Post by tamana »

saumil13 wrote: post #125
Spooky23 wrote: post #68

> Dropbox is not laying off workers or shrinking; it hired nearly 500 people last year, 75 since the start of this year, and it plans to soon move into a sprawling, custom-designed office building for which it has signed a long-term lease. Honest question: WTF are they doing?

Why i like and dislike DBX (note: i'm completely on AAPL ecosystem in HW): + sync works better than any other out there + its quick in sync esp between other machines in same network + sharing folders and links is much easier than other including iCloud + developer adaptation is high on mobile apps which is turning out to be increasingly valuable last year or so - expensive and limitation of option plans - extremely…

You have two choices on privacy: encrypt at the client (that means no web sharing from random machines), or be vulnerable to spying.

Re: Dropbox May Not Be LeBron James, but Is Still in the Game

#170

Post by tamana »

TranquilMarmot wrote: post #136
mangeletti wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interesting; what made you think of this? Also, will I be able to sync my locker with my desk drawer? :)

I know you're joking about syncing but once my teleportation startup finished its series A....

You can't teleport. Scan it locally and provide VR at other locations.
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