I'm a little miffed that people don't express more skepticism about self-driving cars on tech sites. Given what I know about AI research and the technical limitations of LIDAR etc., I find it unlikely that fully self-driving cars will be available at any scale in our lifetimes — if at all. I wish people wouldn't talk about them like they're already de facto the future of transport. I think if Apple is working on a ca…
Apple Gears Up to Challenge Tesla in Electric Cars
151–160 of 174 posts
Re: Apple Gears Up to Challenge Tesla in Electric Cars
#152Earlier quoted context omitted.
Karma actually has a real value on HN because it prevents some people from downvoting. If an Google fan keeps an Apple fan below the karma threshold then the Apple fan won't be able to shape future discussions. The system encourages people to downvote even reasonable comments that are from the "other team". You ran into somebody like that.
To do that, "the other team" person would have to make a calculation based on keeping a certain account they don't like below 500 points. I don't think it's even possible to achieve that if anyone tried, and the probability of an account being just at that limit is pretty low to begin with.
Re: Apple Gears Up to Challenge Tesla in Electric Cars
#153In the 1910's Ford revolutionized operations management and it dominated the automotive industry. In the 1960's Toyota revolutionized operations management and it dominated the automotive industry. In the 2010's Apple revolutionized operations management and ...
Re: Apple Gears Up to Challenge Tesla in Electric Cars
#154Earlier quoted context omitted.
Could you elaborate on this? What do you know about AI research and technical limitations of various components that leads you to be skeptical of the realization of autonomous vehicles? I'm with you on predicting that if Apple is getting into it, it will be non-autonomous, but I'm curious as to how you have reached your other incredulous conclusion.
My skepticism has to do with the following: * People talk about how automatic cars have been extensively tested. That's not really true. There's only a handful of them on the roads and they've been tested in limited conditions, with particular limits placed on suburban driving (slow speeds, etc.). I suspect there will be entirely new classes of bugs when there are hundreds of different AIs competing on the road, espe…
I feel like AI would outperform the heck out of us in that situation, because solving it correctly involves a) high situational awareness, which we suck at because we get distracted, and b) making split-second calculations, which we suck at because we panic and our reflexes aren't that fast. I mean, this is a simple situation, when it comes down to it:
Something runs out into the road.
- Can you swerve and avoid hitting it without hitting anything else or driving off the road? If yes, do. If no:
- Can you hit the brakes without endangering anyone behind you? (Humans tend to have trouble with this decision, because half the time we forget to watch the rear view mirror and now there's no time to check. An AI would ALWAYS know what was behind it.) If yes, do. If not:
Are you more worried about endangering the thing before you or the thing behind you? If it's an animal, hit the animal. If the thing in front of you is a squishy human and the thing behind you is a car protected by all the engineering that protects cars in crashes these days, hit the brakes.
That's all there is to it, 99 % of the time. Sure, this is a situation where AI might make the wrong decision in 1 % of cases, but it's also a situation where humans are wrong much more than that.
How do you deal with a lack of markers on the road?
This one is actually probably most easily solved by just putting markers on all roads. Sure, that would require driving down all roads in a specially-engineered expensive vehicle with a dedicated crew, so you think it sounds like unaffordable insanity until you realize google has already done it once, for the googlemaps mapping project. Just do it again, this time in a car made for spray-painting markers instead of mapping stuff.
Apart from that, the overwhelming majority of problems on the road can be solved by yielding even when you're technically in the right and just slowing the heck down, if necessary to walking speed and below. There will still be problems that only a human being can solve, but there's going to be a human being in the car, so worst case, pull over and ask them. If your human is drunk or underage, pull over, wait for the next passing car, watch how their human solves it, and do what they did. In the rare case where there's no other car likely to pass any time soon and the human in the car is incapacitated - possibly some sort of remote solution would work, where a human in some kind of remote driving center can take control of your car for a minute if necessary?
There'll still be high-speed situations where the AI will fuck and kill someone, but I do think people would come to accept self-driving AI even if it occasionally fucks up and kills people, because it'll be world-changingly convenient. And so far we've accepted a LOT of occasionally-deadly shit if it's sufficiently convenient. (Trains. planes. Nuclear reactors. Every single one of those things had waves of protests and people going "It will never work, and when it fails, people will die! Not worth it!"
And occasionally they failed, and people died, but we still keep using them.
Re: Apple Gears Up to Challenge Tesla in Electric Cars
#155Earlier quoted context omitted.
Could you elaborate on this? What do you know about AI research and technical limitations of various components that leads you to be skeptical of the realization of autonomous vehicles? I'm with you on predicting that if Apple is getting into it, it will be non-autonomous, but I'm curious as to how you have reached your other incredulous conclusion.
My skepticism has to do with the following: * People talk about how automatic cars have been extensively tested. That's not really true. There's only a handful of them on the roads and they've been tested in limited conditions, with particular limits placed on suburban driving (slow speeds, etc.). I suspect there will be entirely new classes of bugs when there are hundreds of different AIs competing on the road, espe…
Thousands of human drivers crash horribly every day and over a million people die every year by car accidents in the World. If humans "crashed terribly" 0.0001% and a self driving car did so 0.00005%, it would already be a great improvement.
I don't have solid data about this, but I think LOTS of the current accidents are due to drivers being reckless, distracted. high or emotional. Self-driving cars would introduce some new risks, but they would take away lots of the current ones.
And for many of the situations that you list, there is a simple solution: the car should have two modes, self-driving and human-driving. Self-driving will only work when conditions are normal. Incompatible weather conditions? Broken sensor? The car parks itself, and you need to drive yourself or wait for assistance.
Re: Apple Gears Up to Challenge Tesla in Electric Cars
#156Earlier quoted context omitted.
To do that, "the other team" person would have to make a calculation based on keeping a certain account they don't like below 500 points. I don't think it's even possible to achieve that if anyone tried, and the probability of an account being just at that limit is pretty low to begin with.
Then why does HN have a 500 karma limit on voting? Why was it raised? If karma doesn't work to exclude people with unpopular opinions then there's no point to the limit. If it does work and helps shape the discussion in a certain way then it can be used by others to tilt the discussion toward their viewpoint. Surely you must have noticed how cliquey HN is.
Occasionally getting downvoted not withstanding, a user's karma tends to only go up over time, as long as the account isn't flagged in any way. It's generally not a battle between negative and positive karma - getting downvoted is more of a short-term signal that others found the quality of your post wanting. So in an environment where there are many more upvotes than downvotes, a 500 karma limit is merely a means to stop novice users from dishing out punishment until they become more experienced users.
Downvoting a comment sends a harsh signal to the commenter that you believe their comment is so bad it shouldn't be there, but it's an unsuitable tool to influence the discussion at large.
> Why was it raised?
I've been here a few years and to my knowledge the limit wasn't raised during that time.
> If karma doesn't work to exclude people with unpopular opinions then there's no point to the limit.
As someone who mostly only posts if he has something contrarian to say, I don't think it's about unpopular opinions. Yes, I receive some downvotes, but mostly people just ignore me, so my average comment karma is very low. That's what you can expect for having unpopular or boring opinions. Reaching the karma threshold necessary for downvoting on the other hand isn't really that big of a deal, nor is it really a challenge.
HN's primary exclusion mechanism is flagging, not downvoting. In a way it's more insidious because you may not even notice it's happening. People get shadowbanned, even. Or, as apparently happened to me yesterday for the first time as far as I can tell, a moderator steps in and forcefully pushes your comment below the much older "green newbie" comments where the thoroughly grey content goes to die.
Downvoting is at least an overt signal, like I said. And personally I think the capability to issue a downvote is probably overrated.
> tilt the discussion toward their viewpoint
Discussions on HN are generally not happening on the razor's edge of opinions. Instead, they tend to be carried out by people who are very certain of their own viewpoint. There is so much momentum, tilting these things is not an issue. But if you can voice a coherent minority opinion, that comment might still get to the top of the thread.
> Surely you must have noticed how cliquey HN is.
It depends, I think there are several big blocks of people here who think alike, but I noticed the biggest influence on how a post is received often seems timezone-related.
Re: Apple Gears Up to Challenge Tesla in Electric Cars
#157Earlier quoted context omitted.
I would have loved to see Elon Musk vs. Steve Jobs. Personalities are quite contrasting.
Steve Jobs up ended multiple industries. Musk is no small player but Jobs basically reinvented the way the game was played when he entered an industry. Musk wouldn't have had a chance.
Re: Apple Gears Up to Challenge Tesla in Electric Cars
#158Earlier quoted context omitted.
Apple is not a software house? They produce two OS's with development tooling and applications, they run some of the largest online services on the Internet, and they just released their own new programming language. What would a software house look like?
Software for a self-driving car has to be built to a standard that's entirely different from anything they've had to build to before. Lives are at stake.
Re: Apple Gears Up to Challenge Tesla in Electric Cars
#159Earlier quoted context omitted.
My skepticism has to do with the following: * People talk about how automatic cars have been extensively tested. That's not really true. There's only a handful of them on the roads and they've been tested in limited conditions, with particular limits placed on suburban driving (slow speeds, etc.). I suspect there will be entirely new classes of bugs when there are hundreds of different AIs competing on the road, espe…
Animals and children running out last-second into the road? I feel like AI would outperform the heck out of us in that situation, because solving it correctly involves a) high situational awareness, which we suck at because we get distracted, and b) making split-second calculations, which we suck at because we panic and our reflexes aren't that fast. I mean, this is a simple situation, when it comes down to it: Somet…
My understanding is that current self-driving technology works great at short range, but is pretty incapable of dealing with obstacles at a distance. If there are things far away that are potentially dangerous — kids, a car behaving erratically, a landslide — I can slow down in case something happens. A self-driving car might have more trouble until the obstacle gets in range, by which point it might be too late.
> Are you more worried about endangering the thing before you or the thing behind you? If it's an animal, hit the animal.
What if it's somebody's pet? Sometimes putting a dent in someone's car is worth saving a beloved animal's life. What if you're about to hit someone and there's a bicyclist behind you? There will be times when the car will have to make decisions regarding which life to save, including the driver's.
> This one is actually probably most easily solved by just putting markers on all roads.
This isn't possible on all roads. Markers can be covered by snow, mud, etc. Yes, you can have RFID markers or whatever, but that would be incredibly expensive. Who's going to pay the bill? The taxpayers? Why?
Also, I was just reminded of parking: how the heck will self-driving cars deal with the current parking rules? It takes all my intelligence just to figure those out sometimes!
> There'll still be high-speed situations where the AI will fuck and kill someone, but I do think people would come to accept self-driving AI even if it occasionally fucks up and kills people, because it'll be world-changingly convenient.
But self-driving cars won't be world-changingly convenient. I don't drive. I don't have to: trains, buses, and occasionally planes take care of my transportation needs for me. I can already snooze on my way to work, get home when I'm drunk, etc. Who will these cars change the world for? Silicon Valley types who want to commute and go on vacation without bumping into anyone else? Because the poor certainly won't be able to afford them, country folks won't be able to use them, and Europeans will probably have no need for them. (Heck, they're still mostly on manual transmissions. And have you looked at the gas prices over there?!)
When we went from horses to trains (and eventually cars and planes), it made it possible for humans to travel across the entire world in a matter of hours. Self-driving cars won't be that kind of leap.
I think it would be much healthier for our cities to focus on developing public transit infrastructure. The best places I've ever lived have been threaded by a city-wide metro system, with commuter trains connecting to further regions. Pedestrians benefit. Suburbanites benefit. The city feels more compact and walkable. You can even get rid of some of the roads!
Re: Apple Gears Up to Challenge Tesla in Electric Cars
#160Earlier quoted context omitted.
My skepticism has to do with the following: * People talk about how automatic cars have been extensively tested. That's not really true. There's only a handful of them on the roads and they've been tested in limited conditions, with particular limits placed on suburban driving (slow speeds, etc.). I suspect there will be entirely new classes of bugs when there are hundreds of different AIs competing on the road, espe…
> If automated cars drove perfectly 99.9999% of the time but then crashed horribly that remaining 0.0001% — taking some poor pedestrians or bicyclists along with them — I wouldn't get into one Thousands of human drivers crash horribly every day and over a million people die every year by car accidents in the World. If humans "crashed terribly" 0.0001% and a self driving car did so 0.00005%, it would already be a grea…
That would be a good solution, but many people who talk about self-driving cars don't want that. They want to sleep in the car. They want to "drive" home drunk. In both cases, a manual override would be disastrous and probably illegal. (We can already get a DUI just for getting into a car while drunk!) They also want to be able to "fetch" their cars without a driver, which wouldn't work.