Live data from Hacker News

The Future of Web Startups

paulgraham.com

151–160 of 173 posts

Re: The Future of Web Startups

#151
post #4

"Then the effects of being measured by performance would propagate all the way back to high school, flushing out all the arbitrary stuff people are measured by now. That is the future of web startups." What an impressive conclusion - I hope it happens.

This would only work if everyone in HS either expects to work on web applications or the trend spreads to all industries. That might take a little longer.

Re: The Future of Web Startups

#152
Hi Paul,

I'm not quite with you on universities.

I haven't been to US education system, but I don't think you get to know stuff like Fourier series or why inverting a matrix is unstable, etc., until you get through a university. And such stuff is important in high tech. Unless you're into web sites that host user generated videos. Being in video hosting pays off, for some, but it's not what I'd call high tech. I mean, it isn't a new UNIX, or a new Internet, or a new CPU design.

Those bigger, more interesting things were done by people who'd been to universities, and I think there's a reason to it.

Those startups started by undergrads, they may very well make money and produce cool apps and products, but I doubt they will drive technology.

I recently found I wasn't keeping up with new languages any more. Not because I've become too lazy, but because there aren't any new concepts in all those Pythons. Those are products of smart hackers, and new concepts are done by scientific kind, who seem to be out of fashion today.

Thanks for your writing anyway.

Alexander

Re: The Future of Web Startups

#153
Hey, Paul: I've got an even better idea. What say I just cut all you investors out altogether? Whatever happened to growing a company slowly, based on the profits coming in? Oh, that's right - we don't do this in the tech industry because everyone says it won't work.

That's just a bunch of bunk. Nothing was funnier during Web 1.0 than guys saying we were "rewriting" the rules of business - like, profits didn't matter. Truth is, from a business point of view, starting a web service is no different than starting a dry cleaners: give people what they want, at a reasonable price (in our business, that usually means ad-supported)... and they'll come back (and click on ads in the process).

Yes, it may take some technical innovation... but it doesn't take any business innovation. Everything you say in your essay is true; so seriously, why do I need you? You expect me to go through this whole dance to come to Cambridge for, what, the possibility of five-thousand bucks? And then move to SilCon for three months so you can keep tabs on us once a week? Like, are you serious?!

Your essay is particularly prescient because you might have inadvertently predicted the ultimate demise of your current business - i.e., venture funding. No, I won't fill out your form; no, I won't travel to Cambridge for the possibility for you to give me five-thousand bucks. No, I won't move to the Valley so you can keep tabs on what I'm doing. I'm a big boy, and I can take care of this end myself, thanks. Good luck with giving away your cash.

James Touchi-Peters, Founder/CEO CONK!/Arrow Media Minneapolis USA conkhead@conk.com http://conk.com

Re: The Future of Web Startups

#154
This essay definitely gives me a sense of fear and dread. What Paul makes out to be a good thing, really gives me a nasty reaction. Startups becoming ubiquitous? If startups really become so prevalent, I feel like it's not necessarily worth doing. Aren't there only so many things that web startups can do? I'm afraid of startups becoming "the cool thing to do," for students in technical fields. College starting to game students specifically for working on startups. 1000 applications, 10000 applications, it stops becoming novel, it feels like a sellout.

Re: The Future of Web Startups

#155
post #135

Hmm. I find the argument for unlimited concentration of startups in startup hubs somewhat unconvincing. If the number of startups founded goes up by an order of magnitude or two, then the need to move to Silicon Valley in order to be in a startup-rich environment goes down. Now, I do think that startups will still move, but I think that the number of hubs they can choose among to move to will be increasing as well. I…

It depends on how the new startups are distributed. If it's a lot more places with just one startup, no new hubs will be created. Doubling from one to two increases the odds that another startup will come along, but the odds don't get especially favorable until you hit a critial mass, and that mass probably depends on local conditions. Lots of folks have tried to create startup hubs. What will be different this time?

I think the difference is that the new hubs will grow on their own, without anyone trying to 'create' them.

Re: The Future of Web Startups

#156
Paul:

Look out, oldsters with all your real world money and stuff, Reality 2.0 is on its way, and it doesn't look good for slow-moving dinosaurs. I, for one, welcome our new 20-something overlords. I cross-posted on your piece to http://blog.innovators-network.org The Innovators Network is a non-profit dedicated to bringing technology to startups, small businesses, non-profits, venture capitalists and intellectual property experts. Please visit us and help grown our community!

Best wishes for continued success,

Anthony Kuhn Innovators Network

Re: The Future of Web Startups

#157
post #4

"Then the effects of being measured by performance would propagate all the way back to high school, flushing out all the arbitrary stuff people are measured by now. That is the future of web startups." What an impressive conclusion - I hope it happens.

When this happens "Hiring will be obsolete" http://www.paulgraham.com/hiring.html

...because we've inspired everyone to do startups. There will be nobody else to hire :)

We're back to the pre-industrial revolution era. Where everyone didn't hire anyone and had their own backyard industry.

Woohoo!

Re: The Future of Web Startups

#158
"standardized procedures" are a very, very important thing. I founded five small companies in the last 15 years and helped a few other founders to start their businesses. One of the big problems i never found a solution for within the process of "standardization starting a startup" is having a tool for the organisation of all the companies' information - i needed a "mini-SAP" for that and i found nothing. So i startet vitool.com. What kind of software do you suggest for your founders, that is simple & cheap and can grow with them?

Re: The Future of Web Startups

#159
Great essay. Maybe a new startup should be something like one of the microfinance sites like Kiva (http://www.kiva.org/about/microfinance) but instead of people making loans, they purchase equity in a startup. All the startups put their "pitch" on the web site and let people read the pitch and decide if they want to purchase equity in the company. If not enough $ comes in, the pitch was not compelling or they are not giving enough equity for the $$. One challenge will be to have a system where getting funding is not just about who can make a slick pitch, but about "real value" (how ever you measure that). Pat

Re: The Future of Web Startups

#160
Nice article Paul. I always get many forwards from my longtime friend Frank Gerhardt about your articles. I like the way you compared the commodities and webstartups. I am in silycon valley and i know exactly what you are tallking about.
Post reply on HN