The madness of the bailout in Cyprus

The biggest holder of US debt is...the US. But ok, what choice did China have? If they kept the money at home, it would have collapsed the economy, investing in US treasuries at an effective -3% was the best they could achieve and have some degree of safety. Whatever you think of the US economy, foreigners still have a lot of faith in it. Only libertarians and republicans running for office think this faith is misplaced.

Now, who gets wiped out in a US default? We do the most, actually, but maybe the Chinese and Japanese hurt a bit also. No one is expecting that to happen, and US debt levels are not particularly high compared to the rest of the world.

> Physical, unambiguously owned metal is the insurance, the vehicle that will transition you through to the otherside.

You can't take gold with you to heaven. Ah, you meant the otherside of a collapse. If the economy completely collapses, no one is producing anything of value that they can spare for trade; your metals are still worthless. The law of supply and demand remains, and you just get screwed on supply.

If you really believe in metals, however, I strongly recommend that you move to Australia if you aren't there already. They have the largest reserves, take whatever we have out of the ground now and multiply it by 10. You can just become a miner and become rich, because of course, we can eat gold can't we?

Stockpile the BEST fiat currency at the moment. Over 6000 years of recorded history, which has the better record, paper money or gold?

There have been limited areas and limited times where even gold has been temporarily worthless. The Venn diagram of those times/places has always been within a much larger time/place where paper money has also been useless.

This smacks of digital archiving arguments. No consumer level digital media format has ever been popular for more than a couple decades, therefore some will tell you that any digital storage is literally useless. Folks who know what they're doing just replicate/transfer into the new format every couple years. You need to do that with your fiat currency. Right now a bank account in Cyprus is looking like a pretty stupid idea. I am sure we'll be able to bracket that with times in the past / future where gold was a dumb idea... it just won't be today. Minimization of transaction/conversion cost is crucial.

Gold has some pretty serious storage costs that shouldn't be overlooked. Apparently a lot of people want this supposedly "worthless" metal. Its fairly common to see anti-gold people trying to fight both sides of the argument simultaneously, which never turns out well.

This has nothing to do with the digital archiving argument. This has to do with whether one arbitrary store of value is more sound than another arbitrary store of value. Money has only been around for 2500 years. Before that, gold was useful because of its rarity, but we might just as well have used large rocks to store/exchange wealth (and...there was an island that did that). The mezoamericans used beads. Heck, we can even start using bitcoin, which is based on the same rarity principle of gold.

And in this case, since Cyprus was on the Euro anyways, they couldn't deprecate their currency and were stuck giving everyone a haircut. They might as well have been storing gold in those banks.

I don't think it's hyperbole to suggest that this sort of action could lead to pan-european war in the next decade.

It radically undermines trust in the banking system, in the social contract, and in democratic government. If you undermine the social contract and rule by fiat, as the EU has in Greece and Cyprus, it leads to extremism, break down of social order, an ever more polarised political situation, and ultimately revolution and/or dictatorship (see France late 1780s, Russia 1900-1917, Germany 1920-30s). That's not a Europe I want to see and this can happen quite quickly even in an apparently stable society when the foundations are weakened progressively.

The EU was founded to avoid precisely this sort of escalation of conflict and blaming of others by sharing the wealth of nations and promoting ever closer union. They could easily afford to support Cyprus through these hard times against the banks, in fact they're a big enough trading block to simply default wholesale against their creditors and start again, but they have chosen instead the road of muddy compromise, where they end up defaulting piecemeal (as in Greece, which effectively defaulted), but by stealth and in secret and with draconian conditions attached, and which hurts the poorer people of the EU disproportionately by forcing through massive cuts which don't actually solve the problem. Is Greece doing better than Iceland at the moment, is the austerity working? How will paying this bill help Cyprus?

They're undermining trust in the entire EU and EUR project, and there may come a time when governments are overthrown and countries leave the union because of it, and even (and I sincerely hope not) where countries go to war over it. It's fascinating and a little sad to see the same mistakes being made all over again.