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The Tariff Cost: analysis of the costs to Americans from new tariffs on Canada

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Re: The Tariff Cost: analysis of the costs to Americans from new tariffs on Canada

#151

Post by badc0ffee »

yostrovs wrote: post #127
Throaway826 wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The main reason the Dairy Supply quota is in place is to stop US dairy producers from dumping dairy into Canada. That's why the USA has never reached the tarriff limit. The big producers there would just dump 20 million litres at once if they could. They aren't interested in 1 or two. And if they were able to do that, the Canadian producers would go under. So its kinda simple, the Dairy Supply system is there to prot…

It follows then that the USA also wants to protect its industries, such as timber, oil and gas, and maple syrup, from Canadian producers that are happy to dump their stuff south of the border for cheaper than US competition.

The US sets the price it pays for Canadian oil, a discount from the market price.

I don't know about timber, but the US maple syrup industry is healthy, just unable to keep up with demand. I think that's a consequence of geography and the time investment required to get mature trees, not Canada undercutting.

Re: The Tariff Cost: analysis of the costs to Americans from new tariffs on Canada

#152

Post by ericmay »

realo wrote: post #136
ericmay wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Someone else shared this article [1] and I was reading a quote I thought was interesting: “[Canada] has a large dairy producing constituency that it wants to protect, so they put a cap on imports that can be accessed at a competitive rate. That's what we call a ‘TRQ’ (tariff rate quota),” says Becky Rasdall Vargas, senior vice president of trade and workforce policy at the International Dairy Foods Association. Under…

I am Canadian. Never, ever would i knowingly buy any dairy products from the USA , at any price. We have cows too, and farmers.

I strongly support buying local where possible, especially for agricultural and farming products. My general algorithm goes: buy in my local area -> city -> region -> state -> country -> western-aligned. I try to buy a lot of American made products in general because of that but even for things like dairy you can find high quality producers that, while more expensive, at least aren’t Big Dairy (for milk), whether that’s Canadian or American or otherwise.

It’s one thing for the government to create protectionist policies, it’s another to have folks like me or perhaps you who practice it in person with our daily economic choices.

Re: The Tariff Cost: analysis of the costs to Americans from new tariffs on Canada

#153

Post by ericmay »

tensor wrote: post #120
ericmay wrote: post #6

> And Canada is taxing you back This seems illogical. You can't simultaneously claim that the US is paying higher prices for Canadian goods because of US-imposed tariffs and then turn around and say only that Americans are paying a tax on buying Canadian goods on Canadian-imposed tariffs. Both countries are either paying higher prices or paying higher taxes. Canada's tariffs must also be viewed as America is taxing C…

Agreed that "Canada is taxing you back" doesn't make sense. But "America is taxing Canada" makes even less sense. Sorry, just no. America is taxing Americans, Canada is taxing Canadians, these taxes harm exports and imports. Also, we've never had fully free trade. You can whine about dairy, we can whine about unfair lumber tariffs. These are all part of CUMSA, an agreement that has been illegally violated every damn…

> But "America is taxing Canada" makes even less sense

I don’t disagree. I just wanted to point out the framing needs to be consistent, which I think you agree with.

I also agree with you with respect to free trade. Every exporter is a free trade proponent. Curious how when it comes to imports or protecting domestic industries all of a sudden every country in the planet puts up some sort of protectionist barrier.

Re: The Tariff Cost: analysis of the costs to Americans from new tariffs on Canada

#154

Post by llm_nerd »

ericmay wrote: post #149
tensor wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe you haven't noticed the world turning against you. Canada is forming trade agreements rapidly with other countries. We can get cars from anywhere in the world. You, on the other hand, would only be able to get cars from yourself. If you ban imports other countries will ban your exports. Isolationism is a losing philosophy. The best and wealthiest nations are the ones that do the most trade, not the least.

No the world isn’t turning against the US, just people in the internet who like to think it is. Canada is forming trade agreements, the US is forming its own as well as we routinely do, including I’m sure a future one with Canada, and we can get cars for ourselves (we don’t need to import) or import them at will. For autos the US manufacturers are primarily domestic anyway so we have way more leverage than anyone els…

At this point I assume this is all an act. Like some sort of parody. Because there is simply no way.

>No the world isn’t turning against the US, just people in the internet who like to think it is.

https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2026/07/15/people-in-many...

Yes, most of the world thinks you're a busted idiocracy. I mean, people view China more positively. In the Iran debacle, where the US got its ass handed to it by some two-bit theocracy, absolutely no one was rooting for the US but Israel. If 9/11 happened today, I'm going to be honest with you: Most of the world would go "Eh, sucks, but not surprising".

You are a hated nation. You haven't felt the consequences yet because inertia is a hell of a thing, and decades of trade and military relationships take time to unwind. But if you, like so many Americans, live under the profound denial that your future has become much, much darker, you need to wake up.

>but Europe will be doing that too.

LOL, what? Europe sure as shit isn't banning Chinese autos. Everyone is transitioning from the US to China. Except your little war-criming buddy Israel, or your hysterically pathetic "Board of Peace". I mean, good god, what a shameful debacle. What an absolutely giant shit this farcical idiocracy movement is taking on the great Americans in the past that put it in the position where it is now flushing down the toilet.

As an aside, it's hilarious seeing you talking about cars. Notice not a word is being dropped about vastly more cars made in Mexico, which are going absolutely nowhere. This never had anything to do with bringing manufacturing "back" to the US, however many cosmically stupid idiots fell for that line.

Re: The Tariff Cost: analysis of the costs to Americans from new tariffs on Canada

#155

Post by b112 »

thisisit wrote: post #112
maxglute wrote: post #83

LBH, Canada has always been real economy loser with respect US trade with ~80b goods / services deficit AFTER discounted energy - cheap crude sales to US to fuel US refinery mismatch. US doesn't have strategic domestic energy self sufficiency without Canadian crude, CAN sludge should be selling at premium (same with VZ but we see how that went). In an ideal world Canada could be making more refining and selling high…

They know the stick is huge but with how everything is going with US and the TACO mentality they feel US will be back on the table once the reality starts hitting. The whole story about why the talks failed: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/25/world/canada/trump-carney... US having veto over Canada trade negotiations, dictating language policy which could cause Quebec to cede from Canada, and stop the "buy Canadian" p…

Not to mention? Any deal signed isn't worth a thing these days. The US is absolutely, positively not trustworthy.

Most Canadians believe that even if we signed an updated deal, Trump would just break it. He's done it already with a lot of these tariffs. So why even bother? What's the point, of negotiating and dealing with liars and cheats? EG, the US.

Just look at the bridge deal. We negotiate a deal, build a bridge for billions, then at the last minute? Rip up a signed agreement and reneg. After the money is spent. It's pathetic. I expect better from used car salesmen. It doesn't matter why, for what reason, it reflects 100% on the US, it's not just one man.

We don't trust the US any more. It lies. It cheats. It scams. We used to buy US weapons, but now we don't trust that, either. I can imagine spending 200B on weapons, and then the software just stops working.

The US used to be the most trusted, beloved nation by Canadians. I think many Canadians would trust Iran, China, Russia more than the US now, to keep a deal.

And that?

That's a pathetic outcome, from a pathetic administration.

Re: The Tariff Cost: analysis of the costs to Americans from new tariffs on Canada

#156

Post by tensor »

ericmay wrote: post #134
tensor wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"I'll just get it from somewhere else" means you do need it. This isn't complicated logic. You don't have enough yourself. The fact that you hope you could get it from a brutal dictatorship instead of a democratic country doesn't change the fact that you do need things Canada has. And yes, Europe found a way off Russian gas. But they had to ration energy, hallways went cold, lighting was restricted. It was not fun. Y…

> "I'll just get it from somewhere else" means you do need it. This isn't complicated logic. Right, it’s not complicated logic, so follow along. I didn’t say that America didn’t need these things. I said we aren’t desperate to get them from Canada. Big difference. > The fact that you hope you could get it from a brutal dictatorship instead of a democratic country doesn't change the fact that you do need things Canada…

> Ok, and then Canada needs things that the US has, as does the EU. Both Canada and the EU also have to get products and commodities from brutal dictatorships. This is a poor argument - what exactly are you trying to prove here?

No, actually, we don't. If you are including "hypothetical future sources" which it seems you are, then Canada and EU can get everything they need from places other than the US. The only one thing that the US has that the world needs is GPUs, but even then maybe we could make a deal and get lesser but workable ones from China.

Also no, Canada and the EU do not generally do a lot of trade with brutal dictatorships, unless you're trying to include the US in that category. At this point I have to assume you're a troll account.

Re: The Tariff Cost: analysis of the costs to Americans from new tariffs on Canada

#157

Post by [deleted] »

whatsThisBtn4 wrote: post #46

I'm afraid to comment because HN shadow bans when discussing international relations. The wild part is that I'm quite academic, Waltz, Mearsheimer, Morgenthau are on my wall. Okay let's get flagged for saying the uncomfortable silent part(chatGPT joke)... Canada suffers more than the United States.

[deleted]

Re: The Tariff Cost: analysis of the costs to Americans from new tariffs on Canada

#158

Post by b112 »

voidfunc wrote: post #33
lenerdenator wrote: post #4

I'm trying to think of the number of people I (an American) know who considered trade with Canada to be a real issue. The answer I keep coming back to is I know zero people who considered that. Does the US have a trade imbalance that causes problems, particularly in our manufacturing sector? Yes. Can tariffs kind of help with that? Also yes. Really, you need to instill some sort of sense of duty to country in busines…

Its all a precursor to setting up a reason to invade Canada. If Canada moves on with a threat to do something with energy then buckle up.

That'd be the dumbest thing the US has ever done. The next 50 years would be as Vietnam, with people indistinguishable from Americans, sneaking across the border 8000km long, to explode, and kill, and destroy. A Vietnam that never ends, and is local.

Not to mention, Canada can make nukes if it wants to. It just doesn't. It gave them up, but still has the plans.

Re: The Tariff Cost: analysis of the costs to Americans from new tariffs on Canada

#159

Post by happyopossum »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #69
declan_roberts wrote: post #52

Canada is very unfortunately caught in the trade war between the USA and China. It's pretty easy right now for certain goods to bypass the US tariffs by being transshipped through Canada and enter the USA without tariff because of minimal processing. Chinese steel is a notable example of this. And a lot of Canada's trade MOUs with other countries basically requires they have this special privilege. So there's gonna b…

> Canada is very unfortunately caught in the trade war between the USA and China Ottawa is fighting Anchluss . The MAGA wing is entirely serious about annexing Canada. Carney, for a change, is right. Canada is being attacked.

>The MAGA wing is entirely serious about annexing Canada.

Wow, that's some amazing propaganda you've bought in to there...

Re: The Tariff Cost: analysis of the costs to Americans from new tariffs on Canada

#160

Post by withinboredom »

ericmay wrote: post #150
kps wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It sounds like you misread my comment.

Sorry, I did. I thought you were accusing American companies (which they can be) of being oligarchies. You’ll have to forgive me, I’ve been doing the lord’s work defending the United States a bit here and trying to clear up confusion that others have with respect to trade.

I didn't know the US had royalty... You should consider moving to the EU if you want to do work for lords and ladies.
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