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AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

blog.florianherrengt.com

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Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

#151
Technology has been doing this for decades. I think a lot of our "K shaped economy" discourse is about the bifurcation of the upper middle class creating downwardly mobile educated young people. Nobody in my wife's immediate family finished college. She and all of her cousins are quite indisputably better off than their parents. My father in law drove a forklift at a soup factory. My sister in law is studying to be a nurse. It's a big step up. But the "white collar" middle class has become very winner-take-all. To use an example from my field, if your dad was a partner at a regional law firm, that path probably isn't open to you. Technology enabled consolidation and scaling, so you don't need lawyers in every city in the U.S. to be able to handle legal work there. Lawyers at national firms serving Wall Street clients are making more money than ever, but the drop below that has become pretty precipitous. The same has happened to small businesses all over the country competing with Amazon, etc. It's had a huge impact on the petit bourgeoisie.

Of course, this is economically efficient. Nobody is going to give up Amazon same-day-delivery so that some local small business owner's kids can live better than the median person.

Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

#152
post #9

> Fixing it would require such a colossal amount of work that it would be impossible to even start justifying it to anyone in management. Bad news: by delegating the thinking to somebody else (Claude) you have become the management.

A manager isn’t normally the person deciding how the software should be architected or implemented. Their job is largely priorities, people, coordination and resource allocation.

You are still an engineer but you’ve delegated your technical judgement to an LLM. You just stopped doing the most important part of your engineering job.

Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

#153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can't help but laugh that even Amazon has someone who defends its honour.

hahaha i was laughing too, of all companies for someone to defend

Every $1B+ company out there has at least one person on HN eager to passionately praise and defend it online. I've never understood it. People get devoted to a company like it's their religion.

Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

#154

I think of it more as "the automation of the stackoverflow engineer". In enterprise software, there has always just been a non-negotiable large volume of code that was required to be written. This has traditionally been offloaded by having seniors do the hard thinking then distill it into a jira ticket which could be handed off to an engineer that'd actually write the code and punch every hiccup into google along the…

> This has traditionally been offloaded by having seniors do the hard thinking then distill it into a jira ticket which could be handed off to an engineer that'd actually write the code

I wish this were the extent of it nowadays. But for whatever reason, I've seen multiple really promising engineers get a hold of AI tools, and just outsource all of their thinking to it.

The self-infantalization is so bad that I was pair programming with a guy one day (partly to see how he was using AI) and watched him ask Claude if it makes sense to do X for every single decision.

I get using it as a form of linting... But you'll never learn how to be an independent developer if you constantly outsource your decision making. And it's disappointing too, because he was developing so rapidly as an engineer before Copilot came out.

Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

#155
post #35

> bad engineers were always a liability This part of the article hits home for me. With AI, "bad" engineers can now amplify their "bad" engineering x10 across the organization. The most egregious of these cases for me is often long tenured engineers who have lost interest in the craft, creating a dangerous combination of having enough merit to ship but not enough interest to make what they ship _good_. I am still a f…

I have found this to some degree (even though I work with amazing people day to day).

It's much easier for people to pump out absolute garbage, you know the kind of "just get it done fast" slop that management types cry out for. And then they wonder why everything end ups broken, not being maintained etc.

And I think the contrast between good and bad code output is much more impactful. Someone can pump out 10x the bad code they used to before, never test it never read through it just push push push baby. And then for good code, sure it's increased my output for slop tasks like repetitive unit tests, but a lot of TLC and review is required for good code and I'd say I've had maybe a 2-3x speed up on a lot of things. But not 10x; you only get that when you don't give a fuck.

Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

#156

I think of it more as "the automation of the stackoverflow engineer". In enterprise software, there has always just been a non-negotiable large volume of code that was required to be written. This has traditionally been offloaded by having seniors do the hard thinking then distill it into a jira ticket which could be handed off to an engineer that'd actually write the code and punch every hiccup into google along the…

>This has traditionally been offloaded by having seniors do the hard thinking then distill it into a jira ticket which could be handed off to an engineer that'd actually write the code and punch every hiccup into google along the way. This is the theory, but I’ve never worked anywhere (and I’ve worked at a lot of places over 20 years) that actually did it like that in practice. What tends to happen is that the EMs an…

>This is the theory, but I’ve never worked anywhere (and I’ve worked at a lot of places over 20 years) that actually did it like that in practice.

Same but with 10 years, and I don't think I would do well in a place like that. That removes you from writing code and there is a similar complaint about relying too much on AI and not writing enough code on your own.

Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

#157

I think of it more as "the automation of the stackoverflow engineer". In enterprise software, there has always just been a non-negotiable large volume of code that was required to be written. This has traditionally been offloaded by having seniors do the hard thinking then distill it into a jira ticket which could be handed off to an engineer that'd actually write the code and punch every hiccup into google along the…

>This has traditionally been offloaded by having seniors do the hard thinking then distill it into a jira ticket which could be handed off to an engineer that'd actually write the code and punch every hiccup into google along the way. This is the theory, but I’ve never worked anywhere (and I’ve worked at a lot of places over 20 years) that actually did it like that in practice. What tends to happen is that the EMs an…

Nor have I seen this "punch every hiccup into google" approach. Most errors are things that (a) you've seen before if you have any significant experience and (b) have a pretty obvious cause if you simply read the error message and look at your code.

Sure you might lean more on Google or SO if it's something you haven't seen before, or it's something deep in a stack that isn't code you actually wrote. But as the noob eventually learns when he thinks he's found a bug in a runtime or compiler that thousands of other people are using every day: No. It's probably your code.

I suppose there are people who never advanced beyond the "type (or copy/paste); run; google the errors" loop, but I've never seen anyone with more than a year or two of experience doing that very often.

Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

#158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Again, this ignores the second order effect of entirely gutting the personnel pipeline that is required to create new senior devs... So without a training pipeline to provide experience to jr. Devs, in 15 years we will be hurting for senior devs to replace all the graybeards. Kind of like the fortran crisis of the last decade or so.... Just across an entire industry that supports every other industry....

The StackOverflow devs being replaced were never going to become real senior developers no matter how much time was given to them. There is an entire cohort of people who were told to go to college for programming because it was an easy way to make good money, who did what they were told while having zero interest in it and never touching a line of code outside of work/school hours. Those people were never going to u…

They'll become managers and PMs and TPMs instead.

Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

#159

I think of it more as "the automation of the stackoverflow engineer". In enterprise software, there has always just been a non-negotiable large volume of code that was required to be written. This has traditionally been offloaded by having seniors do the hard thinking then distill it into a jira ticket which could be handed off to an engineer that'd actually write the code and punch every hiccup into google along the…

Again, this ignores the second order effect of entirely gutting the personnel pipeline that is required to create new senior devs... So without a training pipeline to provide experience to jr. Devs, in 15 years we will be hurting for senior devs to replace all the graybeards. Kind of like the fortran crisis of the last decade or so.... Just across an entire industry that supports every other industry....

Yeah. Technology and social change has done this all over the economy. E.g. from my dad's field, there's not enough public health people with field experience to replace the folks who are retiring. We have plenty of entry level people who can't get a job, but then there's a gaping hole in the pipeline between them and the graybeards who are retiring.

Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

#160

I think of it more as "the automation of the stackoverflow engineer". In enterprise software, there has always just been a non-negotiable large volume of code that was required to be written. This has traditionally been offloaded by having seniors do the hard thinking then distill it into a jira ticket which could be handed off to an engineer that'd actually write the code and punch every hiccup into google along the…

Again, this ignores the second order effect of entirely gutting the personnel pipeline that is required to create new senior devs... So without a training pipeline to provide experience to jr. Devs, in 15 years we will be hurting for senior devs to replace all the graybeards. Kind of like the fortran crisis of the last decade or so.... Just across an entire industry that supports every other industry....

It also ignores the effects of having a critical tool in the software pipeline controlled by a large corporation. That is an absolute sea change from the years when you could (and some of us did) run most of our software development on open tools.

Think about all the open source the world got from some random person in Finland or Sicily or wherever hacking on a cool idea. Will that still happen with a high (for someone who is not employed... maybe a student) monthly cost?

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