151–160 of 189 posts
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How do I get zero direct and indirect stock market exposure, no electricity price impact, no RAM or GPU price impact, etc? I'd love to live in a world where AI firms bidding these things up doesn't affect me but I'm really struggling to understand how they aren't impacting the market.
be poor (minus electricity, I guess)
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> I have no financial stake in AI-related companies so zero exposure to any popular index? Even “ex-US” is tsmc and sk-hynix in a trenchcoat. I think it was BHP exclaiming that theyre an AI play because they cover 85% of the raw materials in DC build outs. In the current mania “no financial stake in AI-related” is a very bold claim.
You can just not have investments, which is more common than you think. Being young, lots of people I know don't even have enough of a cushion to invest, and others want to avoid all risk (especially in the current market) and park their money in a high-interest savings account. Of course, this doesn't insulate you from second- or third-order effects, but it does remove the possibility of your money being immediately…
Raise your hand if you wouldn't pay $60/mo for SOTA LLM access/couldn't get $60 of value out of it monthly.
I find this to be a pretty good split for all my side projects. A real developer wouldn't find this sufficient I would imagine but with the recent discounts on ChatGPT 5.6 Luma and Deepseek Flash V4 0731, I tend to have plenty of left off.
I might be an odd case, tech stuff is my hobby so I enjoy playing with these tools. I do not have any media subscriptions (no Netflix, Amazon, etc) but 20-50$ a month isn't bank breaking.
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The entire left wing of the political spectrum saw this coming (except social democrats; whom I don’t consider left wing). And if you were shorting stocks to make money of off this, you probably were not left wing. Additionally, left wing economists get plenty of ridicule from main stream capitalists no matter what they say, so there really is no reputation to either earn nor to keep.
Do they see coming the predictable failure-modes of left-wing economies, though? History seems to suggest not. Also, did "the entire left-wing" see specifically a debt crisis through bad assumptions of creditworthy mortgage securities coming, or they just saw "capitalism" as a failure and here is a specific case, aren't we so prescient. That's not a prediction.
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You're not breaking anything to me. I deliberately phrased it as "directly immune" because I have no financial stake in AI-related companies. Obviously a debt-bomb of any type imploding reverberates across the economy.
> I have no financial stake in AI-related companies so zero exposure to any popular index? Even “ex-US” is tsmc and sk-hynix in a trenchcoat. I think it was BHP exclaiming that theyre an AI play because they cover 85% of the raw materials in DC build outs. In the current mania “no financial stake in AI-related” is a very bold claim.
It completely unclear where this 1.65T is going to come from to pay the bill. Revenue from people buying AI doesn’t even come close to covering it, even with crazy aggressive assumptions about the cashflow that could be generated from that. The Wall St vs Silicon Valley showdown that’s setting up here looks like it will be quite epic. If last week was any preview, get your popcorn ready.
It's not like their collateral is a bunch of NFTs.
As a bystander directly immune to the fortunes of AI going up or down, it does feel like there are a lot more people thinking this is inning 9 of the LLM story than there are people thinking it's inning 3. Which makes it tempting to believe it's probably closer to inning 3.
Right - black swans are by definition things that the majority didn't see coming. Ever since the 2008 housing crisis, people have been predicting the next bubble-burst/black-swan event. The one that really crushed the markets was the one almost body saw coming: Covid-19.
Genuine question: these companies had double-digit billions of free cash flow per quarter, about $0.3T a year aggregate, before the AI boom started and they began splurging on CapEx; is the $1.65T number that bad in that context? Let's assume the extreme worst case scenario where the bubble pops so comprehensively that the entire AI business is written off, without any change to the debt owed, and these companies ret…
The GFC “proper” was the dramatic crash in the liquidity of credit markets, not strictly a corollary of the losses on property and mortgage-backed securities.
It completely unclear where this 1.65T is going to come from to pay the bill. Revenue from people buying AI doesn’t even come close to covering it, even with crazy aggressive assumptions about the cashflow that could be generated from that. The Wall St vs Silicon Valley showdown that’s setting up here looks like it will be quite epic. If last week was any preview, get your popcorn ready.
From the lender's standpoint they can repossess the data center. It's not like their collateral is a bunch of NFTs.
And is it collateral if it has yet to be built?
(I'm asking because I want to correct my own ignorance.)