U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio reaches 123% • Hacker News Board

Re: U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio reaches 123%

#151

Post by [deleted] » Fri, Jul 31, 2026, 6:37 PM UTC

halJordan wrote: post #145

toomuchtodo wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Direct costs are ~$113B as of June 16th, 2026 (per the Pentagon's briefing to Congress, counter stopped on that date): https://iran-cost-ticker.com/ Iran War Cost Tracker - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47237080 - March 2026 (446 comments) Pentagon Tells Congress First Week of Iran War Cost More Than $11.3 Billion - https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/11/world/middleeast/iran-war... | https://archive.today/Q4oDX -…

A common conceit in these arguments is that you have sole ownership to "what a government is for." Which implicitly denies the opposite argument without addressing it, and attempts to legitimize your own. But social service outlays are absolutely, incontrovertibly a huge & increasing reason for the deficit. All the doge/ Trump/project 2025 cuts have paled in the face of the absolute juggernaut that is domestic spendi…

[deleted]

Re: U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio reaches 123%

#152

Post by rayiner » Fri, Jul 31, 2026, 6:40 PM UTC

Jcowell wrote: post #147

halJordan wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A common conceit in these arguments is that you have sole ownership to "what a government is for." Which implicitly denies the opposite argument without addressing it, and attempts to legitimize your own. But social service outlays are absolutely, incontrovertibly a huge & increasing reason for the deficit. All the doge/ Trump/project 2025 cuts have paled in the face of the absolute juggernaut that is domestic spendi…

What does it buy

Much less for the money than in western europe--even when limiting the analysis to systems like schools and transit that are publicly operated in both places.

Re: U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio reaches 123%

#153

Post by [deleted] » Fri, Jul 31, 2026, 6:44 PM UTC

halJordan wrote: post #145

toomuchtodo wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Direct costs are ~$113B as of June 16th, 2026 (per the Pentagon's briefing to Congress, counter stopped on that date): https://iran-cost-ticker.com/ Iran War Cost Tracker - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47237080 - March 2026 (446 comments) Pentagon Tells Congress First Week of Iran War Cost More Than $11.3 Billion - https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/11/world/middleeast/iran-war... | https://archive.today/Q4oDX -…

A common conceit in these arguments is that you have sole ownership to "what a government is for." Which implicitly denies the opposite argument without addressing it, and attempts to legitimize your own. But social service outlays are absolutely, incontrovertibly a huge & increasing reason for the deficit. All the doge/ Trump/project 2025 cuts have paled in the face of the absolute juggernaut that is domestic spendi…

[deleted]

Re: U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio reaches 123%

#154

Post by bhelkey » Fri, Jul 31, 2026, 6:54 PM UTC

rayiner wrote: post #150

bhelkey wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US spends $2 Trillion dollars on Medicare + Medicaid a year [1][2]. Given that the US has a population of 342.7 million people [3], those two trillion dollars divides out to $5800 per resident per year. The UK's universal healthcare system costs ~$4700 per person per year (~£3,500)[4]. If we could spend healthcare dollars as efficiently as the UK, the current government spending in the US is enough to support a s…

> Given that the US has a population of 342.7 million people [3], we could have single payer healthcare for every resident without raising taxes if it cost less than $5800 per person per year. The UK's universal healthcare system costs ~$4700 per person per year (~£3,500)[4]. Except we couldn't. For the same reason our public schools can't get Finland's test scores while spending $3,000 less per student pear year tha…

If your implication is that this is a private vs public spending problem, that's not it. Healthcare in the US (both private and public) costs dramatically more than in other developed countries.

Why that is is a bit complicated and doesn't have a single root cause. It's also a bit tricky because every major component blames the other components for the total cost.

Part of the problem (roughly 10% by one estimation I read) is drug prices. Drug prices in the US are >2x the price as compared to other developed countries [1].

[1] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK611301/

Re: U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio reaches 123%

#155

Post by malvim » Fri, Jul 31, 2026, 6:54 PM UTC

rayiner wrote: post #127

juujian wrote: post #3

Upsetting how we are reaching these lows while the administration is accusing everyone else of wasting taxpayer money except for themselves. At least under previous administrations you would get something for your money, like science funding and healthcare for the needy, not just bombing runs and posturing.

I don't want to waste money bombing Iran either, but the total cost of the operation has been $37.5 billion. Meanwhile, Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security each grew around $100 billion in the last year.

Except these programs keep your people alive and healthy and able to work and consume and live. The other money just kills people. And it’s also not just about this “operation” (aggression war). It’s about the whole military budget. Come on, now.

Re: U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio reaches 123%

#156

Post by TimorousBestie » Fri, Jul 31, 2026, 7:01 PM UTC

rayiner wrote: post #127

juujian wrote: post #3

Upsetting how we are reaching these lows while the administration is accusing everyone else of wasting taxpayer money except for themselves. At least under previous administrations you would get something for your money, like science funding and healthcare for the needy, not just bombing runs and posturing.

I don't want to waste money bombing Iran either, but the total cost of the operation has been $37.5 billion. Meanwhile, Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security each grew around $100 billion in the last year.

[RETRACTED]

Re: U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio reaches 123%

#157

Post by tstrimple » Fri, Jul 31, 2026, 7:04 PM UTC

jmpman wrote: post #146

juujian wrote: post #3

Upsetting how we are reaching these lows while the administration is accusing everyone else of wasting taxpayer money except for themselves. At least under previous administrations you would get something for your money, like science funding and healthcare for the needy, not just bombing runs and posturing.

As much as people may dislike Regan, his goal for reducing taxes on the wealthy was based upon the laffer curve. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laffer_curve The hypothesis is that lowering taxes rates will actually increase government revenues. The Trump cuts don't feel like they're laffer optimal. Instead they feel like political capture by the wealthy class. A cumulative of left of laffer optimal tax strategies over…

> As much as people may dislike Regan, his goal for reducing taxes on the wealthy was based upon the laffer curve.

If this were the case, revenue would have gone up after the tax cuts. They didn't. Receipts as share of GDP fell and the deficit tripled. The debt went from 25% of GDP to 40% of GDP during Reagan. We've never meaningfully been on the wrong side of the Laffer curve. It's basically just conservative propaganda at this point.

As the other post mentioned, the strategy is and was Starve the Beast. We know this because that's what Reagan actually campaigned on.

> "John Anderson tells us that first we've got to reduce spending before we can reduce taxes. Well, if you've got a kid that's extravagant, you can lecture him all you want to about his extravagance. Or you can cut his allowance and achieve the same end much quicker."

Re: U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio reaches 123%

#158

Post by rayiner » Fri, Jul 31, 2026, 7:07 PM UTC

bhelkey wrote: post #154

rayiner wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Given that the US has a population of 342.7 million people [3], we could have single payer healthcare for every resident without raising taxes if it cost less than $5800 per person per year. The UK's universal healthcare system costs ~$4700 per person per year (~£3,500)[4]. Except we couldn't. For the same reason our public schools can't get Finland's test scores while spending $3,000 less per student pear year tha…

If your implication is that this is a private vs public spending problem, that's not it. Healthcare in the US (both private and public) costs dramatically more than in other developed countries. Why that is is a bit complicated and doesn't have a single root cause. It's also a bit tricky because every major component blames the other components for the total cost. Part of the problem (roughly 10% by one estimation I…

> If your implication is that this is a private vs public spending problem, that's not it.

No, my point is that we couldn't achieve UK costs by doing "single payer." Our publicly funded systems, like schools and transit, are also cost-inefficient (public schools somewhat less so, public transmit somewhat more so).

Re: U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio reaches 123%

#159

Post by rayiner » Fri, Jul 31, 2026, 7:10 PM UTC

TimorousBestie wrote: post #156

rayiner wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't want to waste money bombing Iran either, but the total cost of the operation has been $37.5 billion. Meanwhile, Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security each grew around $100 billion in the last year.

[RETRACTED]

You have me confused with someone else. This was me 3 months ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47986799

> If American foreign policy was rational, we wouldn’t have been involved in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, and now Iran. Not to mention Somalia, Kosovo, and Libya, and countless minor skirmishes. We’ve been throwing kids into the meat grinder for 75 years, and lighting dollars on fire, for no good reason. There’s no reason for us to light money on fire having bases all over the world, when we have two huge oceans to protect us.

Re: U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio reaches 123%

#160

Post by rayiner » Fri, Jul 31, 2026, 7:16 PM UTC

malvim wrote: post #155

rayiner wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't want to waste money bombing Iran either, but the total cost of the operation has been $37.5 billion. Meanwhile, Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security each grew around $100 billion in the last year.

Except these programs keep your people alive and healthy and able to work and consume and live. The other money just kills people. And it’s also not just about this “operation” (aggression war). It’s about the whole military budget. Come on, now.

> It’s about the whole military budget.

I also thought that the military budget was too big... in 1998. But in 2026, Europe is raising defense spending targets to 3.5% of GDP, which is more than what the U.S. spends: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clyz4nq91wpo

It turns out that, if the U.S. isn't willing to guarantee your security, you have to spend 3-5% of GDP on defense (just like Europe used to do before 1990). As the U.S. loses hegemony and we move to a multi-polar world, everyone's military budgets will go up.