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I love LLMs, I hate hype

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Re: I love LLMs, I hate hype

#151

Post by LugosFergus »

Since no one is talking about it: T2 isn’t about machines taking over the world. That has happened (or will happen). But humans eventually defeat the machines. Skynet is trying to prevent that by killing John Connor. That’s what the movie is about. I suppose it’s also about John searching for a parental figure through the T800. He doesn’t get that through is foster parents and his estranged mother.

Anyway, I don’t think this dude actually watched this movie. It’s too bad because it’s a classic.

Re: I love LLMs, I hate hype

#152

Post by browski »

atomicnumber3 wrote: post #21
hamandcheese wrote: post #10

> where’s all this new magical software that the productivity improvements should imply? It's running, privately, in my homelab. I think we are entering what I call the "have it your way" era. If an open source project doesn't do exactly what you want it to do, fork it, or create a new version. It's too easy. This makes me a bit concerned about the future of open source. Upstreaming used to be worth it, since maintai…

Remember: code is free as in "free puppy". FOSS communities were never valuable because of the code. It was the shared written and oral traditions that make the software useful, usable, and updated.

What makes computers useful is solving problems

I don't care if they adhere to written and oral traditions of the past or some other means

I need to add and divide and test values in memory. I don't care what it looks like to do that.

I don't need a passenger telling me how to drive. Why would I want a patronizing coder telling me how to use a machine?

Re: I love LLMs, I hate hype

#153

Post by Jtarii »

nylonstrung wrote: post #45
HellDunkel wrote: post #9

How to you love this stuff so hard? I could newer love any ai generated music, book or artwork. Anything ai gemerated i have ever seem or heard was either disgustingly slop or indistinguishable from something else which was real. It‘s a like finding a cool track only to discover it‘s a lazy bootleg.

Yeah but it was only like 2 years ago that artists were arguing this on the basis that AI-gen images would consistently mangle hands Now we're at a point where that never happens, and where lipsync is almost a completely solved problem If the issue here is simply that the quality is bad, one has to contend with the fact that it is undoubtedly exponentially improving and there's no reason we should expect that improve…

An LLM cannot make art because it isn't human. It can make "art like artifacts". Art involves one human communicating some emotional experience to another human, LLMs cannot experience human emotion, so they cannot make art.

The process of making art is not a subset of hill climbing optimisation algorithms.

Re: I love LLMs, I hate hype

#154

Post by seattle_spring »

stavros wrote: post #150
edot wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are they / you using it for in such quantities?

I know that some companies are spending around that much per day per engineer . They just want to go as fast as possible.

They're spending $10 million USD per engineer on LLMs?

Re: I love LLMs, I hate hype

#155

Post by llm_nerd »

This feels a bit like a reframing of the rather absurd "Eternal Sloptember" nonsense, desperately trying to pivot from Luddism to visionary (and yes, I know this is the "hacked the iPhone" guy. I'm not a cult of personality person and I positively do not care). Also incredibly weird how it repeatedly talks about people moving to San Francisco, which ... what in the world is that nonsense about? People talking about the concerns of AI and automation are in no universe considering moving to SF as the protection...

"Where’s all this new magical software that the productivity improvements should imply?"

This is a recurring gotcha in the anti-AI marketplace of denialism. It's a bit like saying "I saw a fat guy, so why do people keep telling me that GLP-1s change everything?"

It takes time. Like already I would say just about every programmer has replaced a number of tools with random shit they spit out from LLMs. It percolates out from there as some things become products, etc.

And to anyone actually paying attention, and not just feeding their delusions, the impact is utterly enormous. Incontestable. The "Where's the software? / Where's the change?" people are absolutely going to find themselves in the dustbin of history.

It's also fascinating how often people do the stochastic parrot horseshit.

The other night I had to do a large scale compression test with libjxl, which notably is software that has seen an enormous amount of optimization interest and you would assume has little extra to be eked out. I've traced through this software before and the compression path is insanely complex. It's the sort of software that is headache inducing. Anyways, curious what the state of the platform was I grabbed the latest source and asked Fable to look for low-hanging fruit in the lossy and lossless compression paths. It suggested a few, created a test harness to A:B bitwise compare with the original, and implemented its optimizations. It achieved a 14% performance increase in a single pass, using just the remaining quota I had on a subscription as my week drew to a close. And all it did was some high level logical optimizations, some more efficient memory allocations, and so on. All of its code was completely in the style of the project, was no more significant than necessary, and so on. Anyone that isn't utterly blown away by that -- who gets the hype -- is lying to themselves.

Re: I love LLMs, I hate hype

#156

Post by [deleted] »

LugosFergus wrote: post #151

Since no one is talking about it: T2 isn’t about machines taking over the world. That has happened (or will happen). But humans eventually defeat the machines. Skynet is trying to prevent that by killing John Connor. That’s what the movie is about. I suppose it’s also about John searching for a parental figure through the T800. He doesn’t get that through is foster parents and his estranged mother. Anyway, I don’t th…

[deleted]

Re: I love LLMs, I hate hype

#157

Post by anuramat »

maxgashkov wrote: post #144
QuantumGood wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just to clarify your implication: Fable subscription usage was just (re)extended to July 19

If they haven't relaxed the classifier this makes little to no difference as the model is essentially unusable no matter the token quotas.

what are you working on? I only hit the guardrails twice after burning through two weeks of 20x max plan, both times on ML stuff; still more than I'd want to, but not unusable

Re: I love LLMs, I hate hype

#158

Post by bluegatty »

SwellJoe wrote: post #143
bluegatty wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are raking in 10's of billions, growing revenues astronomically as we speak. That's not sign of commodity actor, just the opposite.

But, that's not what you said they'd do. I can switch to a different model with almost zero cost. That's the definition of a commodity.

No, you switched to another SOTA model.

You didn't switch to 'Random Corner Store Token Seller' down the street, did you?

There 2-3 top players, that is not commodity.

Commodity is when there are enough that none of them have market power or can set prices.

'Commodity' means you buy your tokens from the Grocery Store on their loan plan. Like consumer credit is a commodity.

FYI predict this is roughly the way it will stay.

We will develop a lot of use for Chinese Open-ish models etc. but the SOTA's will maintain their place for a lot of things.

Re: I love LLMs, I hate hype

#159

Post by anuramat »

gyomu wrote: post #137
SwellJoe wrote: post #81

This line: "this is my main argument against the valuation of frontier labs. It’s not that AI won’t create that much value, it’s that they won’t capture it." That is a very astute and concise way to explain everything about how the frontier labs are behaving and how they're trying to push more people to pay token rates for the best models. At the current subscription prices ($100 or $200 a month for a generous, thoug…

In 5-10 years an Apple Watch will run a Fable level model locally. I don’t think we (hackers) should worry too much about token cost inflation. The current wave of providers, that’s another story.

why would you need a local fable at that point? AGI will surely solve all the problems in the world at that point

Re: I love LLMs, I hate hype

#160

Post by vardalab »

roncesvalles wrote: post #149
SwellJoe wrote: post #81

This line: "this is my main argument against the valuation of frontier labs. It’s not that AI won’t create that much value, it’s that they won’t capture it." That is a very astute and concise way to explain everything about how the frontier labs are behaving and how they're trying to push more people to pay token rates for the best models. At the current subscription prices ($100 or $200 a month for a generous, thoug…

>5.6 Sol, competitive with Fable (or close enough), and it's available via subscription (even the $20 subscription!) It's not comparable because OpenAI caps thinking to High in the ChatGPT "Chat" interface (and the "Work" thing where it actually does let us use Extra or Max is fucking shit). GPT 5.6 Sol (High) is almost certainly worse than Opus 4.8 (Extra), and nowhere close to Fable (Extra). I literally got a refun…

I don't know what your evals are, but you need to reevaluate them.
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