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US Consumer Price Index up 4.2%

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Re: US Consumer Price Index up 4.2%

#151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quite the opposite. Value is essentially a function of scarcity relative to desire. Food desire may be, for all intents and purposes, stable, but availability is most certainly not. Something like a major weather event wiping out a crop can quickly change the scarcity profile. Food is especially prone to value variances over time.

What specific definition of value are you using here? Sometimes terms with value get into the same realm as price, but the default definition of value is the benefit you're getting, and going to similar restaurants ten years apart is damn near the same benefit. Scarcity doesn't come into play.

Given that we're specifically talking about value in the context of currency and how that pertains to CPI, I am not sure where "benefit you're getting" would apply. CPI is definitely not interested in "the benefit you got".

However, if we are to change gears, the benefit you get out of a restaurant isn't constant either. Aside from maybe those trying to serve the elderly population, where there seems to be a viable niche of providing "remembrance of how things were in the good old days", restaurants that try to offer constant value quickly go out of business. They are forever needing to up their game to appeal to the typical clientele. Customers want increasingly more benefit as time marches forward to justify the visit.

An individual's perception of benefit is personal, so it is true that any given individual may not find increased benefit in restaurants trying to outdo each other by offering more and more benefits, but within populations it seems quite apparent that restaurants that "win" generally are offering more benefits (higher quality/more exotic/creative food, increasingly sophisticated ambiance, etc.) than they did in the past.

Re: US Consumer Price Index up 4.2%

#152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The FED says that 2% is good. 2% is not good. Their target of 2% per year means we have 2% compounding annually devaluation of our currency.

Why is that not good? When inflation is close to 0 real interest rates increase which causes the economy to slow down. It seems clear to me that the optimal rate of inflation is always above 0.

The real problem imo is that below 0% is really bad, and has the potential to spiral. So the fed does not target anything close to 0%, but instead targets some buffer above it.

So it's not that "2% is good", but more that "2% is the best buffer we've decided above the <0% super scary threshold"

Re: US Consumer Price Index up 4.2%

#153

Paradoxically, inflation has contributed to me taking a sabbatical. While I live in a LCOL area and made ~140k/year it just no longer felt worth it to work as I saw my retirement accounts start to match and exceed my salary in yearly gains. I do plan on going back to work in a part time manner, but inflation has killed any reason for me to work hard at a job for that level of salary. Furthermore, the feeling of "what…

You're still cutting your annual income in half though. That's pretty big no?

Re: US Consumer Price Index up 4.2%

#154
post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It serves the US Energy Dominance Agenda against China, Japan, India and the EU …how? What is this agenda? Juicing short-term energy exports? That’s not a “dominance agenda.”

The National Energy Dominance Council primarily cites national security interests: https://www.eenews.net/articles/white-house-launches-energy-... It works towards increasing US energy production at all costs even though the US is already a net exporter. What is not mentioned of course is that increased US dependencies of countries like Japan are a feature: https://energytracker.asia/japan-to-buy-record-amounts-of-ln…

> with the Iran conflict, Qatar is shut off and Japan can be pressured even more

I see your argument. It’s still short term. A fifth of Japanese electricity comes from renewables [1]. Meanwhile, Japan is diversifying its LNG suppliers [2].

[1] https://www.iea.org/countries/japan/renewables

[2] https://www.asahi.com/sp/ajw/articles/16464707

Re: US Consumer Price Index up 4.2%

#155
post #7

Remember this next time you get your yearly review/raise. 4.2% is what you need to stay even, anything less is a pay cut.

Most employers in the US don’t realize this and act like cost of living adjustments are major rewards if they do them at all.

Re: US Consumer Price Index up 4.2%

#156
post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you assuming yearly wages not increasing to match/exceed inflation every year? The logical point here doesn't make much sense to me otherwise.

Cumulative inflation since 2019 has been 30%. More with these new numbers, I think. What jobs have the wages gone up 30% in that same time period? I’m sure a few, but not many.

Hourly wage for all private sector workers is up +32% since Dec 2019 ($37.54 vs $28.38)[1]. For non-management workers +35% ($32.31 in May 2026 vs $23.85 in Dec 2019)[2].

[1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES0500000003

[2] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AHETPI

Re: US Consumer Price Index up 4.2%

#157
considering Iran War is likely to still be happening January 2029, imagine what costs will be like by then

every single day $5/gas is taking a BILLION dollars out of the economy that could have gone elsewhere

but it could be worse, we could be innocent civilian Iranians having the US bomb their water and power plants this week

Re: US Consumer Price Index up 4.2%

#158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Food is one of the things that's going to have the least change in value.

Quite the opposite. Value is essentially a function of scarcity relative to desire. Food desire may be, for all intents and purposes, stable, but availability is most certainly not. Something like a major weather event wiping out a crop can quickly change the scarcity profile. Food is especially prone to value variances over time.

Also, desire for restaurant service is driven by people with disposable income looking to treat themselves much more than baseline food prices. Restaurants serving this demand can optimise prices for their limited capacity, and have staff and real estate costs to consider

Re: US Consumer Price Index up 4.2%

#159
I find it interesting how many people act like inflation doesn’t exist especially with salaries.

If you made 100k in say 2000 the equivalent would be 200k today. If you go by median house price your salary should have doubled since 2015!

Re: US Consumer Price Index up 4.2%

#160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What specific definition of value are you using here? Sometimes terms with value get into the same realm as price, but the default definition of value is the benefit you're getting, and going to similar restaurants ten years apart is damn near the same benefit. Scarcity doesn't come into play.

Given that we're specifically talking about value in the context of currency and how that pertains to CPI, I am not sure where "benefit you're getting" would apply. CPI is definitely not interested in "the benefit you got". However, if we are to change gears, the benefit you get out of a restaurant isn't constant either. Aside from maybe those trying to serve the elderly population, where there seems to be a viable n…

> Given that we're specifically talking about value in the context of currency and how that pertains to CPI, I am not sure where "benefit you're getting" would apply. CPI is definitely not interested in "the benefit you got".

...yes it is? It's seeing how many dollars you need for some specific goods.

> the benefit you get out of a restaurant isn't constant either

It's not exactly constant but it's pretty close. Especially over a single decade. And we can assume here that people are going to similar restaurants.

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