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Danish Pension Blacklists SpaceX over 'Catastrophic Governance'

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Re: Danish Pension Blacklists SpaceX over 'Catastrophic Governance'

#151

It's really concerning given how the indexes are changing rules to fast-track SpaceX being forced into index funds. S&P is also working on updates to S&P 500 to force it down everyone's throats quickly and algorithmically.

I'm usually a Boglehead, with some exceptions, and one exception I'd love is some sort of trade that would eliminate my exposure to SpaceX for the next few years. I'm sure there's some combo of options that would do it. Probably finding an ESG-focused ETF would do it. ESG basically meant "good governance, we follow laws" which translated into better governed public companies that therefore had better returns, as one…

I've sold all my stocks. My reasoning is that if AI stocks go bust, they will take the global stock market with them.

Re: Danish Pension Blacklists SpaceX over 'Catastrophic Governance'

#152

It's really concerning given how the indexes are changing rules to fast-track SpaceX being forced into index funds. S&P is also working on updates to S&P 500 to force it down everyone's throats quickly and algorithmically.

They will only be added to those indexes if they are actually trading at a value that places them in the top 100 or 500 companies in the US. If they fall below that price then they will be kicked out of the index just like any other company.

What exactly is the risk to normal investors if that’s the case? If it’s all a big scam then they will trade lower and they’ll naturally be kicked out of the index.

This is a rule that will apply to all new companies. When Anthropic and OpenAI go public they will also benefit from the rule. Do you think the media/public will be just as outraged when they do it?

The goal of the S&P 500 is to keep the index representative of the US market. They have in fact changed rules in the past when market conditions have changed. These mega IPOs are an entirely new market condition, as private companies have never been this big before listing in history. So large that they immediately fall into the top 100 or 500 largest companies in the country.

There’s also the fact that Nasdaq is a private company and it now has competition from the new Texas exchange. SpaceX is actually dual-listing on TXSE and Nasdaq. Nasdaq needs to keep these giant IPO companies happy because if they don’t they will list on the competitor exchange which would be disastrous for Nasdaq (supercharging their competitor).

These things affect each other as well. Nasdaq wants to make sure they get the IPO on their exchange, so they include them in the Nasdaq 100. S&P 500 doesn’t want to be outdated by missing a trillion dollar company from their index, while other exchanges like the Nasdaq 100 include them.

There’s a real case to be made that this is just self interest on the part of the exchange and the other index providers.

Re: Danish Pension Blacklists SpaceX over 'Catastrophic Governance'

#153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> also don't control the ETF basket The ETF is this case follows the index, so there's really no surprise. > I would still probably go with the long put strategy Just, don't. There is a world of complexity between a simple short, and entering an option contract with non linear pnl.

The ETF that seemingly arbitrarily changes its rules? In such a short time frame too? This change is going proposal to implementation in.. what, two weeks total? I don't know about you but I don't keep up on this stuff unless it hits the news like this one. You are not entering a contract with a long put. You are buying a contract that, if you want, you can just let expire with no obligation to do anything. It's effe…

> You are not entering a contract with a long put

Yes you are, and options are complicated. Actually, the mere fact that you think they are "simple insurance" is enough proof to me that you probably don't understand it enough to safely buy one.

> You are buying a contract

Oh right, you've bought a PUT, now the fun part: you have to manage your position/exposure, could you enlighten me how you do that?

Could you explain me why buying a SpaceX PUT in a high IV regime (e.g. soon after IPO) will have it drop 40% when the IV decreases after 1 month, even though price moved in my favor? It should be simple, it's just a simple insurance product right?

Seriously. Someone, likely not super financially literate, ask a simple question about how to neutralize a stock exposure, and your answer is to advise buying options? Just stop.

Re: Danish Pension Blacklists SpaceX over 'Catastrophic Governance'

#155
post #92
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Merging the failling companies into the other ones is the usual Elon thing, Solar City didn't get acqui-merged into Tesla for its great result. It's not a "scam" in the traditionnal sense, it's riding the bubble while it's there, stock value is "supposed" to be about the company performance and potential but technically it doesn't have to be, it's about what some people are willing to pay for it (the stock, not the p…

It’s a scam and the party will be over when Tesla finally bites the dust, and it will. The worldwide trajectory is not in their favor.

What makes you say that? Chinese EVs?

Re: Danish Pension Blacklists SpaceX over 'Catastrophic Governance'

#156
post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You cannot however sell only SpaceX shares from your ETF to cover your short's losses. So due to liquidity issues I wouldn't recommend your strategy.

What are you talking about? You don't need to touch anything about your ETF. You just have to short a single name on the side. Also there is no liquidity issue, we're talking SP500 names here, you'll pay GC, which should be around 25bps as the other comment mentions.

They're saying if the stock goes up and you get margin-called on the short, you have to sell index shares, you can't just annihilate the Tesla shares with the anti-Tesla shares and walk away.

Re: Danish Pension Blacklists SpaceX over 'Catastrophic Governance'

#158
post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s a scam and the party will be over when Tesla finally bites the dust, and it will. The worldwide trajectory is not in their favor.

What makes you say that? Chinese EVs?

Not parent, but Tesla is currently worth more in the stock market than the ten biggest car seller combined

That's with falling sales, with no new product in sight and their latest release a big dud (despite SpaceX ordering massive amount of it to prop it up), and with a pricing and thus margin that is going to be massively lowered or beaten by Chinese ev. Protectionism by the US can only go so far, the US alone doesn't have a trillion dollar worthy car market.

They're also losing the race in self driving, and the biggest innovation in EV (semi instant charging) is coming from China not from them.

They had a lead and a massively advantageous legal situation and they squandered it, now you add the association of Elon to the brand making it toxic in many places and it's not looking rosy, the brand can be fine but it's valuation at one point or another will have a wake up day.

Re: Danish Pension Blacklists SpaceX over 'Catastrophic Governance'

#159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are you talking about? You don't need to touch anything about your ETF. You just have to short a single name on the side. Also there is no liquidity issue, we're talking SP500 names here, you'll pay GC, which should be around 25bps as the other comment mentions.

They're saying if the stock goes up and you get margin-called on the short, you have to sell index shares, you can't just annihilate the Tesla shares with the anti-Tesla shares and walk away.

That depends if you trade cash or synthetic.

I think most people trade synthetic, just because it's faster and you don't have to wait for settlements, but maybe that is different if you trade onshore (I am a foreign investor).

Anyway if you are synthetic your margin is most likely shared between shorts and long on the same instrument, so no, you wouldn't be called.

Re: Danish Pension Blacklists SpaceX over 'Catastrophic Governance'

#160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The ETF that seemingly arbitrarily changes its rules? In such a short time frame too? This change is going proposal to implementation in.. what, two weeks total? I don't know about you but I don't keep up on this stuff unless it hits the news like this one. You are not entering a contract with a long put. You are buying a contract that, if you want, you can just let expire with no obligation to do anything. It's effe…

> You are not entering a contract with a long put Yes you are, and options are complicated . Actually, the mere fact that you think they are "simple insurance" is enough proof to me that you probably don't understand it enough to safely buy one. > You are buying a contract Oh right, you've bought a PUT, now the fun part: you have to manage your position/exposure, could you enlighten me how you do that? Could you expl…

Spicy.

Look, I think you're missing my point a little bit. Let's simplify it to risk, since that's what kicked off this conversation.

Your pension or whatever holds an ETF that (soon) contains some SpaceX shares. You buy a put option on SpaceX direct. What's the absolute worst thing that could happen?

Your pension or whatever holds an ETF that (soon) contains some SpaceX shares. You short sell a SpaceX share. What's the absolute worst thing that could happen?

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