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Where does next-token prediction leave us?

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Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#151

Post by throawayonthe »

gspr wrote: post #121
shinycode wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s exactly part of the feelings I have. I always loved to learn, dig subjects, debug, create. Now I feel something has been taken away and has no value. I feel indolence and apathy. In my company the CEO explicitly says that code quality does not matter. He doesn’t care as long as we ship fast and iterate. I am genuinely sad and feel I’m losing something and if I do everything like I used to do, I am pressured th…

I feel the same as you. But at the same time: do you not think your CEO will be proven wrong? Maybe I'm delusional, maybe I'm just rationalizing, but surely code quality, and code understanding, does matter? And if your CEO is right, then surely their business is doomed? If they don't understand, or can't maintain their own product, what's to stop their customers from just "making it" themselves? How is anyone happy…

i guess it really depends... look at claude code itself, terrible code but rakes in the money dunnit

Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#152

Post by irthomasthomas »

energy123 wrote: post #138
Melamune wrote: post #75

LLMs reveal an important truth that we were already deeply aware of. With this cognitive offloading, the interests that drive us lose their meaning. If friction disappears, there is no longer any desire, pleasure, longing, obstacle, or demand. It is indolence, and it goes by the name of apathy. All these promises without even reaching an ideal! Could it simply be that this ideal is becoming impoverished? The prevaili…

These things are biologically/neurologically caused. They're adaptations that worked well in our ancestral environment (effort -> reward = satisfaction, stress = effort) which are now possibly becoming maladaptations. We won't be the first organism to experience this (likely unfortunate) transition. What's concerning is that it usually precipitates something bad like large genetic alterations through natural selectio…

Like the lion in the zoo that gets food thrown to him.

Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#153

Post by exfalso »

gspr wrote: post #125
exfalso wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agree on the knock-on effects. My prediction is deflation. Money will be worth more and more. As a consequence governments will have to step in to ensure inflation(with e.g. universal income), otherwise the economy stops. But honestly I'm not sure this will be enough for people to spend on e.g. restaurants or activities or oh I don't know, children. I think this will imply a freezing or even stepping back on the Masl…

> What I'm mostly concerned about is not even economic, it's psychological. With nothing to do, people will not have purpose, and bored people are a gunpowder keg. I'm not so sure about this one. The powerful in a society like the one you describe would surely know about that potential powderkeg and supply ample cheap entertainment to dull the edge. Then we'll have a society of mostly dull, idle, useless people with…

Yeah that also sounds realistic, and actually there's evidence of this dulling effect from even before llms. The attention economy has been literally streamlining.. well, the road to death. And nobody is angry.

I can spin this in a weirdly positive light though. With fertility rates going down, life becoming less and less meaningful and simultaneously a small and decreasing group of people becoming extremely productive.. maybe humanity will finally stop exploiting the planet and start a sort of transition.

AI enhanced increased lifespan forest elves watching over nature. Mm I'd prefer that over soma. We are the heralds of The Great Ones

Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#154

Post by fingerlocks »

gspr wrote: post #124
rzmmm wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or average joe becomes DIY plumber with help of chatGPT and there is a lot less demand for plumbers then.

I don't think the reason that most people don't DIY plumbing is a lack of accessible information. Any physical craft like that requires practice, so I think there's a real moat there.

There is a lot less information online about the physical trades compared to software development. Plumbers don’t post on ToiletOverflow.com all day helping each other with their little tricks and sharing tribal knowledge. Pick a random brass fitting at the hardware store and try to google its purpose; you’d be surprised by the scant detail even when yielding plenty of shopping links

Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#155

Post by killingtime74 »

red75prime wrote: post #132
overgard wrote: post #40

I have a more depressing theory. I think class is part of it, but I'm starting to suspect that a shockingly large number of people lack the critical thinking skills needed to think out the implications of this stuff. I say that because I've met so many people of the managerial class that seem to think it's going to replace the annoying people they have to pay, but somehow they don't think it's going to come for them…

Correct me if I wrong, up to 40% of Roman citizens were on "welfare". This, at least, shows that it's not impossible to have a functioning society with a large percentage of people who only contribute political activity.

You mean they were slaves right

Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#156

Post by wwalexander »

irthomasthomas wrote: post #152
energy123 wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These things are biologically/neurologically caused. They're adaptations that worked well in our ancestral environment (effort -> reward = satisfaction, stress = effort) which are now possibly becoming maladaptations. We won't be the first organism to experience this (likely unfortunate) transition. What's concerning is that it usually precipitates something bad like large genetic alterations through natural selectio…

Like the lion in the zoo that gets food thrown to him.

Who do you think is going to throw food at you?

Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#157

Post by customguy »

Melamune wrote: post #75

LLMs reveal an important truth that we were already deeply aware of. With this cognitive offloading, the interests that drive us lose their meaning. If friction disappears, there is no longer any desire, pleasure, longing, obstacle, or demand. It is indolence, and it goes by the name of apathy. All these promises without even reaching an ideal! Could it simply be that this ideal is becoming impoverished? The prevaili…

> All these promises without even reaching an ideal! Could it simply be that this ideal is becoming impoverished?

What ideal?

> The prevailing view is that « AI makes us stupid », so it’s actually a good thing if only the wealthy were still capable of using it.

You mean it would be a good thing?

> I doubt that [..] we will ever fail to overcome entropy

What does this mean?

> What is given without effort does not transform.

Children who have loving parents absolutely are affected by that, even if the love is given unconditionally and was there even before they had a sense of self. We are also very much transformed by living on a planet with sunlight and all that entails, and we never had to turn the sun on for that.

It's true that muscles you don't use atrophy, and that includes the brain and "the heart", but it's also true that the best things in life are free.

Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#158

Post by customguy »

ares623 wrote: post #99
birdsongs wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would argue we're already in a pseudo class war. Most of us in tech are isolated so far, but the middle class is disappearing worldwide, and the wealth gulf is growing. Most propaganda seems to be centered on increasing division along gender / race / sexuality boundaries, so that infighting keeps people from looking up for too long. But I might just be overly radicalised.

The western world is about to find out first hand why millions of people decide to leave their homes every year to try and start over elsewhere. As one of those millions of people, I can only shake my head. Was working in an office and being in countless standups that bad?

> The western world is about to find out first hand why millions of people decide to leave their homes every year to try and start over elsewhere. As one of those millions of people, I can only shake my head.

You could also say what it is you think you already know that others are about to find out, and what it has to do with class war.

Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#159

Post by aembleton »

shinycode wrote: post #114
Melamune wrote: post #75

LLMs reveal an important truth that we were already deeply aware of. With this cognitive offloading, the interests that drive us lose their meaning. If friction disappears, there is no longer any desire, pleasure, longing, obstacle, or demand. It is indolence, and it goes by the name of apathy. All these promises without even reaching an ideal! Could it simply be that this ideal is becoming impoverished? The prevaili…

That’s exactly part of the feelings I have. I always loved to learn, dig subjects, debug, create. Now I feel something has been taken away and has no value. I feel indolence and apathy. In my company the CEO explicitly says that code quality does not matter. He doesn’t care as long as we ship fast and iterate. I am genuinely sad and feel I’m losing something and if I do everything like I used to do, I am pressured th…

> Now I feel something has been taken away and has no value.

Did you feel similar when Wikipedia was created or Google or when you first got access to the internet?

All of these tools have made digging into subjects and learning easier. I find the same with AI. I love it when a random thought pops into my head and I can explore it with an AI such as Gemini. Then ask it for the sources it used so that I can read further.

AI is just a tool, much like StackOverflow. It doesn't prevent creativity, it just makes it easier and more accessible.

Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#160

Post by customguy »

weatherlite wrote: post #108
dyauspitr wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You think every person only thinks of their own job and no one dreams of anything bigger from humanity’s perspective? I’m never going to be in some kind of space colony but do I want to see them happen? You betcha.

> You think every person only thinks of their own job and no one dreams of anything bigger from humanity’s perspective? Yes, the vast majority of people care about their jobs first rather than a theoretical future where mostly rich people colonize space. It's much easier to imagine yourself becoming poor than living in Mars.

What I was 9, I lay awake thinking about how humanity will one day explore space and discover all sorts of new species, make new friends.. I imagined music concerts with humans and animals and all sorts of creatures.. and then it hit me, I won't be alive by then. I basically realized I'm mortal, and cried for hours.

I want that type of sadness back, please. Right now I'm relieved if anything to know I won't see 2126 and beyond, but that's not because I'm inherently pessimistic, I came to this world optimistic as can be.

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