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OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

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Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#151
post #125

[flagged]

Honestly, even if anthropic models are better than OpenAIs, I don't understand how they want to make money. In October last year, the frontier models from US companies were so much better than the cheapest models, I thought it was over, but nowadays, even smaller models perform adequately enough. I now use free models (or rather, very cheap ones) in all of my personal projects, and even though anthropic's harness is hard to replace on complex cases (it helps understand where the LLM failed better, which allows to correct the mistakes more easily), I'm pretty sure pure LLM gains are less and less with each new models.

Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#152
post #108
post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Since the source code leak of Claud Code, is there an actual believable moat whatsoever any longer? I’m not nearly an expert at any level, but it seems to me the models themselves are converging on “good enough” for coding, with the real differentiator being the harness and tooling. From a bystander and casual user perspective it all seems running as fast as it can to commoditization to me. I’m certainly the dumb mon…

The Claude Code client source was never their moat. There are plenty of other companies with equivalent tools (gemini cli, cursor cli, augment, codex, etc.) The models that it talks to are far more important. Not to say you're wrong about commoditization. I don't think these companies will be able to raise their prices and keep them there to make enough money to keep building models like they've been doing.

I disagree, Claude harness is the majority of its added value imho. I still use old Claude models over free models for the chain of thought and execution capacity, when free models have largely reached Sonnet 4.5 level and even surpassed it.

Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#153
post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All that is a side show. What would you have done with the cash if you were right? Thats always the real story. My Aunt runs an accounting firm and is constantly moaning about the number of people who have over accumulated cash from IPOs and have no clue what to do with it all.

I would retire. If you have two million euros lying around, that would be life-changing money for me. I'd put everything into VWCE and then live off interest. I think I'd spend a year in Japan just to see what it's like, then travel around a few other countries, and finally settle somewhere back in Europe - buy a small house in the middle of nowhere, renovate it, and then smoke weed and play video games until the end…

That's such a cynical take. If everyone does what you're describing, we will never make progress as a society.

Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#155

How does a company even consider this while the CFO is privately saying the books / revenue accounting are not ready for public scrutiny? Edit: Or has so much somehow changed in two weeks that it’s no longer necessary to wait until next year?

I believe, but could be wrong, is that the big change is the time frame for index and managed funds buy in. It used to be a year, but it's much shorter now, like 2 weeks. Which means as long as they can maintain a high market cap relative to their exchange for that time period they will be stabilized by institutional funds and basically crowd sourcing any losses to the public and massively cashing out the internal pr…

Yeah it’s a scam

Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#157
post #114

What is the advice from the internet? Did you invest in Tesla and now invest in Open AI because who cares about ethics if you can make money? Anthropic has the obviously the better product and were seemingly ethically better until they burnt their developer goodwill and started accepting Musk infrastructure. But does having a better product actually translate to making more money? Should I just lay down and die becau…

Tesla used to be a kind of “ethical” play. They made electric cars cool.

Tesla is still doing that. The CEO is a shithead but that's a different matter.

Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#158
post #89

Any early guesses on end of first day market cap? I'm going to guess $2.5 trillion which is about 2.5x their current valuation. I think the hype is going to be immense.

I’d take the Kalshi bet for far less than 2.5tn

What do you think it will end up as?

Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#159
post #104

Now everyone is on the hook for this overpriced unprofitable monstrosity vis a vis pension and index funds. How much longer for the coming economic collapse…

It should still take a year until it's added to the indices, no? At least that's how I understood the SpaceX case: Elon wanted to rush it and get it done in 6 months. So there's still hope that the bubble pops before the funds are poisoned.

If they list on the Nasdaq, recent changes mean they can now be added after 15 days, instead of 12 months.

https://www.etfstream.com/articles/spacex-to-ipo-on-nasdaq-a...

Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#160
post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Current administration might rig the rules to take the credit of AI boom. Even third world doesn't have this much shameless and corrupt regime as much as this one is.

What is the third world in 2026?

"Developing nations" if you will. Like these days banks are referring to labour class as "low quality human capital".

Whatever terms fancy you, the underlying reality remains the same.

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