151–160 of 256 posts
I wonder if it can really be enforced. It's clear that prediction markets are a scourge -- there seems to be no upside whatsoever.
How is it different from the stock market?
Predictions markets are just bets: one person wins, one loses.
For the record, Minnesota currently has a complete ban on sports betting. We've seen a couple other states that allow sports betting go after prediction markets. Personally, I feel that any state that allows sports betting is going to struggle to argue a case to ban prediction markets because you're essentially arguing over implementation details. Even arguments that certain prediction markets are ripe for insider tr…
> This Minnesota law turns lawful operators and participants in prediction markets into felons overnight,” said CFTC Chairman Michael S. Selig. “Minnesota farmers have relied on critical hedging products on weather and crop-related events for decades to mitigate their risks. Governor Walz chose to put special interests first and American farmers and innovators last.
Its an interesting angle; how do you draw the line between "a prediction market about what the temperature will be" and a futures contract that's used as a legitimate hedge? Minnesota's law is EXTREMELY broad in its definition: [2]
(e) "Prediction market" means a system that allows consumers to place a wager on the future outcome of a specified event that is not determined or affected by the performance of the parties to the contract, including but not limited to: (1) an athletic event or game of skill, or portions thereof or individual performance statistics therein; (2) any game played with cards, dice, equipment, or any mechanical or electronic device or machine; (3) war, state or national emergencies, natural or human-made disasters, mass shootings, acts of terrorism, or public health crises, or the ancillary effects thereof; (4) any event or events happening to a natural person or group of people;(5) a federal, state, or local election, or the actions or conduct of the federal, state, or local government and the government's agencies, employees, and officers; (6) legal actions, including but not limited to a civil or criminal suit, grand jury action, jury trial, settlement, plea, or conviction; (7) the death, assassination, or attempted killing of a person or group of persons, or mass casualty events; (8) short-term weather events or conditions; (9) events in popular culture, including but not limited to awards and the date a piece of entertainment will be released; and (10) whether a person will make a particular statement.
There's a bunch of exceptions that reference prior laws, which I haven't gone through, though they'd likely have to exempt, you know, Chase Bank, because if not that definition would clearly disallow Stocks.
[1] https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/9233-26
[2] https://www.revisor.mn.gov/bills/94/2026/0/SF/4760/versions/...
While it's obviously sports betting, the fact is that federal law gives the CFTC the power to determine what is and isn't a future and expressly preempts state intervention in futures markets. And, the case as to why futures markets generally should be subject only to federal oversight is quite strong IMO. So, the case can quickly become whether or not the CFTC should consider sports betting to be a future, and judge…
90% agree, the CFTC doesn't consider these futures contracts, it regulates them under its "contract market" authority, that Congress designated and updated periodically over time This is the authority on the CFTC's own website on prediction markets "For more information" section https://www.cftc.gov/LearnandProtect/PredictionMarkets https://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?hl=false&edition=prelim&... And yes, both the Sup…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
But I thought the Supreme Court said online sports betting was interstate commerce and out of the domain of state legislation. Or did I get that completely wrong?
The core holding was this > "congress can regulate sports gambling directly, but if it elects not to do so, each state is free to act on its own."
Earlier quoted context omitted.
But I thought the Supreme Court said online sports betting was interstate commerce and out of the domain of state legislation. Or did I get that completely wrong?
No, the SC said the federal government can't outright ban sports betting. The logic was that a ban interferes with states right to legalize sports betting. (To be clear, it is still an nonsensical decision though. Congress does still have the power to regular gambling under the interstate commerce clause, just not outright ban it)
Earlier quoted context omitted.
But I thought the Supreme Court said online sports betting was interstate commerce and out of the domain of state legislation. Or did I get that completely wrong?
You have it backwards. Murphy v NCAA ruled that the federal legislation banning sports betting was unconstitutional, and that it was up to the states to regulate gambling.
For the record, Minnesota currently has a complete ban on sports betting. We've seen a couple other states that allow sports betting go after prediction markets. Personally, I feel that any state that allows sports betting is going to struggle to argue a case to ban prediction markets because you're essentially arguing over implementation details. Even arguments that certain prediction markets are ripe for insider tr…
I think sports betting is a lot less harmful than prediction markets. With sports betting if someone throws a game to get a pay day, for instance, the only real consequence is on the reputation of the sport. In prediction markets, people can do all sorts of awful things to make money as insiders..
I am still very, very anti prediction market, to be clear. But that is one reason why I would agree with a soft statement like "prediction markets are less harmful than sports betting" (in much the same way that a handgun is less harmful than a fully automatic rifle).
Doesn’t this violate commerce between states, effectively?
No. They're not banning prediction markets from out-of-state, they're banning it entirely. A state cannot ban out-of-state alcohol, but it can ban alcohol outright if it wanted to.
Does anyone think that Minnesotans who are out of MN at the time of their bet will be allowed to bet? I don't think they'll be allowed, but they should be.