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AI eats the world (Spring 26) [pdf]

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Re: AI eats the world (Spring 26) [pdf]

#151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel like the talk about "world models" is trying to reach at that, but cast it in different terminology. World model is just domain model, and once you're at domain model, there are multitudes of domains. Unsupervised learning over domain rulesystems has the potential to let us define really well-defined, scoped models that behave a lot more deterministically and don't colour outside the lines, and reserve their w…

> Mixture-of-Experts seems like an attempt to do this - the domain structure being extracted into specific sub-models that are presumably trained on particular domain-associated content This is a common miss-conception. MoE LLMs are NOT trained with each expert receiving domain-associated data. It's just an unfortunate naming decision that stuck, and is commonly miss-understood by non practitioners.

Interesting. So what's the strategy there? Just assume that each expert will learn some underlying clustering of semantic associations, but not direct it?

Re: AI eats the world (Spring 26) [pdf]

#152
post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks for the summary. I do love Benedict‘s work; I find he’s one of the few commentators who consistently strikes a balance between taking the transformative potential of AI seriously while not falling over into hype. Some things that stand out: * He’s really good with his historical analogies, especially looking at previous transformations like the early Internet and mobile; no surprise given that he has a history…

Agreed, I appreciate his historical perspective, but I think one critical mistake his posts make is implying, largely because the parallels to history have been similar so far, that history will repeat. Like, yes, the telecom bubble was a clear case of overbuilding and the AI data center "bubble" looks a lot like that... but this overlooks that the fiber capacity being laid back then far outstripped the demand, where…

> new technology has always created new jobs... but all those new jobs required a higher skill level

The industrial revolution didn't seem to require any particular special skill at all. Just anyone who was willing to tend to a machine all day. (Maybe that's a parallel...)

Re: AI eats the world (Spring 26) [pdf]

#153
post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks for the summary. I do love Benedict‘s work; I find he’s one of the few commentators who consistently strikes a balance between taking the transformative potential of AI seriously while not falling over into hype. Some things that stand out: * He’s really good with his historical analogies, especially looking at previous transformations like the early Internet and mobile; no surprise given that he has a history…

I just got a bit triggered by the "hype" word. What if the hype was real? It is easy to say that nobody knows how all of this is going to work, and I would say it is a prudent thing to say, but there is value in making a bold prediction from the start instead of just updating your view to respond to change. In one case you are predicting stuff, in the other, just reacting. But I absolutely agree that in hindsight we…

The hype is in what AI delivers (at least so far). I would never create a PR without an AI review. I will ask an AI to write code for me from time to time.

But it still has huge gaps in quality. And from time to time, it shows me that it doesn’t really understand things. You might point out that how is that any different from your mediocre engineer. But for most people skilled enough, you can easily know the difference when someone doesn’t really know something.

With AI, you discover this after reading several pages being dumped on you by people being “more productive” with AI.

Re: AI eats the world (Spring 26) [pdf]

#154
post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just got a bit triggered by the "hype" word. What if the hype was real? It is easy to say that nobody knows how all of this is going to work, and I would say it is a prudent thing to say, but there is value in making a bold prediction from the start instead of just updating your view to respond to change. In one case you are predicting stuff, in the other, just reacting. But I absolutely agree that in hindsight we…

The hype is in what AI delivers (at least so far). I would never create a PR without an AI review. I will ask an AI to write code for me from time to time. But it still has huge gaps in quality. And from time to time, it shows me that it doesn’t really understand things. You might point out that how is that any different from your mediocre engineer. But for most people skilled enough, you can easily know the differen…

Ok so the hype would be people saying AI can currently do something well and autonomously when it cannot (or not consistently enough), and it is easy to prove them wrong.

But I feel like people are more hyped about what the AI will be able to do soon rather than what it can do now.

I think AI does understand things (depending on your definition), how else could we communicate and ask it a question if it didn't? I mean we're quite far from Eliza here.

And yes, often their answer would be so wrong that we think it is impossible that AI understands anything, but this jagged intelligence doesn't prove, at least to me, that there isn't some understanding. At what point do we say that AI understands things? What if we can reduce 99% of those dumb failures, would we then say than AI understands?

Re: AI eats the world (Spring 26) [pdf]

#156

tl;dr; > "What happened the last time that everything changed?" Honestly, I'm glad we hear more of the commoditization of AI, and I hope that the comparison of AI with water or electricity will become mainstream and that the states (as in nation states) will understand that sooner rather than later and act accordingly.

How the fuck can you put ai on par with water or even electricity?

May be cuz it needs water and electricity for its existence?

Re: AI eats the world (Spring 26) [pdf]

#157
post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks for the summary. I do love Benedict‘s work; I find he’s one of the few commentators who consistently strikes a balance between taking the transformative potential of AI seriously while not falling over into hype. Some things that stand out: * He’s really good with his historical analogies, especially looking at previous transformations like the early Internet and mobile; no surprise given that he has a history…

I just got a bit triggered by the "hype" word. What if the hype was real? It is easy to say that nobody knows how all of this is going to work, and I would say it is a prudent thing to say, but there is value in making a bold prediction from the start instead of just updating your view to respond to change. In one case you are predicting stuff, in the other, just reacting. But I absolutely agree that in hindsight we…

>where has AI underdelivered?

Other than the stock market (which seems decoupled from reality at the moment), where has AI delivered?

The only use case where I see anything resembling AI delivering on it's promises is software, and my personal experience with that is that everything that comes out of the teams using AI is destructively broken. (Where they used to be able to deliver software that worked, even if it wasn't ideal, now they reliably make things worse and their stuff doesn't work when used.)

Re: AI eats the world (Spring 26) [pdf]

#158
post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did you read the original comment? > AI data centers crowd us out. > the entire surface of the earth will be covered with solar panels and data centers.

Yes, so our buildings' windows will be solar panels, what's wrong with that? And all our floors can be data centers, what's wrong with that?

You may want to lay off the LLM and practice your reading comprehension.

Re: AI eats the world (Spring 26) [pdf]

#159
post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The hype is in what AI delivers (at least so far). I would never create a PR without an AI review. I will ask an AI to write code for me from time to time. But it still has huge gaps in quality. And from time to time, it shows me that it doesn’t really understand things. You might point out that how is that any different from your mediocre engineer. But for most people skilled enough, you can easily know the differen…

Ok so the hype would be people saying AI can currently do something well and autonomously when it cannot (or not consistently enough), and it is easy to prove them wrong. But I feel like people are more hyped about what the AI will be able to do soon rather than what it can do now. I think AI does understand things (depending on your definition), how else could we communicate and ask it a question if it didn't? I mea…

>I think AI does understand things (depending on your definition), how else could we communicate and ask it a question if it didn't?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_room

Re: AI eats the world (Spring 26) [pdf]

#160

In slide 22, it compares LLM labs (OpenAI/Anthropic) to mobile data telecoms (AT&T, Verizon, TMobile) in 2010s. The difference is that mobile telecoms follow a standard (3G, 4G LTE, 5G) and there is little to no differentiation. It's virtually the same no matter which company you choose or which country you travel to. A better comparison is actually AWS/Azure/Google Cloud/NeoClouds to AT&T and Verizon. The data cente…

Most of your analysis I can easily relate to except “There is evidence that the Chinese models are falling further behind, not gaining.” Where is that evidence? Deepseekv4 claims to be trailing front runners by six months. I read people agreeing with this. I watched Eric Schmidt to recently make similar comments. Is he just scaremongering? Why do you claim they are falling behind?

A few evidence I pieced together:

1. Ex-ByteDance Engineer said so recently: https://www.businessinsider.com/ex-bytedance-engineer-says-c...

2. A benchmark concludes so: https://www.nist.gov/news-events/news/2026/05/caisi-evaluati...

3. Generally, people say Chinese models bench better than they perform

I think it seems to make sense given that China does not have access to Blackwell while in the past, they at least had access to gimped H200s.

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