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The AI Backlash Could Get Ugly

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Re: The AI Backlash Could Get Ugly

#151

Post by rchaud »

thomascgalvin wrote: post #5

People like Altman and Musk are saying that Universal Basic Income will be necessary once AI has fully automated away most jobs, but at the same time they aggressively fight against any kind of tax policy that would allow UBI to function. I am convinced that their talk of UBI is just handwaving; they're trying to convince us that there will be a solution to the destruction of the economy as we know it, so that we'll…

> but at the same time they aggressively fight against any kind of tax policy that would allow UBI to function.

Because that isn't the UBI they're thinking of.

Altman runs an eyeball-scanning crypto startup and Musk wants to replicate WeChat to create a panopticon paradise for surveillance capitalism. In their world, UBI looks like something that even Black Mirror writers would reject as too unrealistic:

a) Free housing, but it's right next to a datacenter with its 24-hour noise. If you develop health problems from drinking the water or living near power lines, you get mandatory arbitration before an AI judge, with your legal representation provided by Grok.

b) Free money, but it's all in Worldcoin, and can only be spent at company-owned stores built around the datacenter. X.com charges a 30% fee if you try to convert it to USD.

Re: The AI Backlash Could Get Ugly

#152

Post by JKCalhoun »

I find the backlash kind of saddening.

As an engineer, as most of you are, I am as blown away by the achievement that is the LLM in a way not too dissimilar to how I feel about the Apollo Moon program. And furthermore, I have found it wildly useful for me (if used within contexts that play to its strengths).

But I think that kind of gets to the point perhaps of the schism. I like the tech and like using it. I enjoy "testing" its capabilities—finding its boundaries…

In absolutely no way am I scheming on how I might leverage it to shut down whole industries. I use it, for personal use, not unlike I used the first personal computer as a tool—dare I say, "A bicycle for my mind…"

The people hating AI (and I'm looking at my entire family, ha ha), I think hate AI as it is wielded as a tool by corporations. They hate Musk, Bezos, the whole lot of them—and, perhaps rightly so, they lump AI in with all that lot.

Perhaps my diplomatic stance then is that AI may turn out to be empowering for the individual, might be used in a way crippling to society.

Re: The AI Backlash Could Get Ugly

#153

Post by JKCalhoun »

rchaud wrote: post #151
thomascgalvin wrote: post #5

People like Altman and Musk are saying that Universal Basic Income will be necessary once AI has fully automated away most jobs, but at the same time they aggressively fight against any kind of tax policy that would allow UBI to function. I am convinced that their talk of UBI is just handwaving; they're trying to convince us that there will be a solution to the destruction of the economy as we know it, so that we'll…

> but at the same time they aggressively fight against any kind of tax policy that would allow UBI to function. Because that isn't the UBI they're thinking of. Altman runs an eyeball-scanning crypto startup and Musk wants to replicate WeChat to create a panopticon paradise for surveillance capitalism. In their world, UBI looks like something that even Black Mirror writers would reject as too unrealistic: a) Free hous…

Scrip.

Re: The AI Backlash Could Get Ugly

#154

Post by JKCalhoun »

cjbgkagh wrote: post #23
thomascgalvin wrote: post #5

People like Altman and Musk are saying that Universal Basic Income will be necessary once AI has fully automated away most jobs, but at the same time they aggressively fight against any kind of tax policy that would allow UBI to function. I am convinced that their talk of UBI is just handwaving; they're trying to convince us that there will be a solution to the destruction of the economy as we know it, so that we'll…

I keep warning people that promising UBI and not delivering UBI both serve the same end, undermining opposition. By the time you find out that their promises of UBI are empty it’s too late to do anything about it.

I don't know. A nationwide (global?) promise of UBI that just evaporates is likely to bring on a French Revolution kind of moment.

Re: The AI Backlash Could Get Ugly

#155

Post by JKCalhoun »

palmotea wrote: post #112
thomascgalvin wrote: post #5

People like Altman and Musk are saying that Universal Basic Income will be necessary once AI has fully automated away most jobs, but at the same time they aggressively fight against any kind of tax policy that would allow UBI to function. I am convinced that their talk of UBI is just handwaving; they're trying to convince us that there will be a solution to the destruction of the economy as we know it, so that we'll…

> I am convinced that their talk of UBI is just handwaving; they're trying to convince us that there will be a solution to the destruction of the economy as we know it, so that we'll just let them do whatever they want. This is exactly it. Also, even if UBI is implemented: 1) It's probably going to be just enough to let one scrape by as a member of a permanent underclass. You will not be comfortable on it. 2) I doubt…

So you're saying we'll all live on "Reservations".

Re: The AI Backlash Could Get Ugly

#156

Post by JKCalhoun »

dehrmann wrote: post #100
mrhottakes wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Elon's companies famously pay very little in taxes, he spent last year attempting to gut the federal government, he complains constantly about how much he pays in taxes, and he's been very vocal about California's recent efforts to tax very wealthy people.

The California Billionaire Tax is a bad idea. It's not that wealth taxes can't work (most of the US taxes property just fine), it's that taxes need to be fair and predictable. The phase-in is too narrow and its implementation is too arbitrary. Why $1B? Why $5%? Why won't CA voters hit up billionaires again?

"Why $1B? Why $5%?"

You have some numbers that are less arbitrary?

Re: The AI Backlash Could Get Ugly

#157

Post by tavavex »

thomascgalvin wrote: post #5

People like Altman and Musk are saying that Universal Basic Income will be necessary once AI has fully automated away most jobs, but at the same time they aggressively fight against any kind of tax policy that would allow UBI to function. I am convinced that their talk of UBI is just handwaving; they're trying to convince us that there will be a solution to the destruction of the economy as we know it, so that we'll…

It is just handwaving. They're billionaires. The only thing they're capable of saying is the thing that's going to lead to the best outcome for them.

They found out that 'UBI' is a collection of sounds that's apparently popular with the detractors. Crucially, the task of turning this acronym into real policy will never fall on them, and no one will blame them if it never comes. So, when faced with criticism about the bleak world they want to force on us, they can just recite the UBI warding spell, reassuring people that even if they make the worst version of reality happen, surely there will be someone else to help the commoners out - anyone but them.

Re: The AI Backlash Could Get Ugly

#158

Post by xracy »

dehrmann wrote: post #100
mrhottakes wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Elon's companies famously pay very little in taxes, he spent last year attempting to gut the federal government, he complains constantly about how much he pays in taxes, and he's been very vocal about California's recent efforts to tax very wealthy people.

The California Billionaire Tax is a bad idea. It's not that wealth taxes can't work (most of the US taxes property just fine), it's that taxes need to be fair and predictable. The phase-in is too narrow and its implementation is too arbitrary. Why $1B? Why $5%? Why won't CA voters hit up billionaires again?

I feel like every opposition I read to wealth taxes is someone saying that we shouldn't do it, because it won't be perfect. Without offering an alternative to the status quo, which is nothing.

We can iterate on taxes if they're ineffective, but it's unforgivable to not try and do something in the face of so much inequality.

Re: The AI Backlash Could Get Ugly

#159

Post by cjbgkagh »

JKCalhoun wrote: post #154
cjbgkagh wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I keep warning people that promising UBI and not delivering UBI both serve the same end, undermining opposition. By the time you find out that their promises of UBI are empty it’s too late to do anything about it.

I don't know. A nationwide (global?) promise of UBI that just evaporates is likely to bring on a French Revolution kind of moment.

Imagine a split between two factions, one that wants UBI and one that doesn't. The most talented people will go to the faction that doesn't offer/impose UBI. That's why UBI is impossible, the incentive to defect is immense.

Re: The AI Backlash Could Get Ugly

#160

Post by esseph »

spwa4 wrote: post #145

> Steve Bannon and Bernie Sanders don’t agree on much ... Actually they kinda do. Anyone else notice that both extremes have the same policies? (well, Bernie Sanders isn't half as extreme as the other guy of course, but I also don't know anyone better to represent the left. But he's not extreme left by any stretch of the imagination) But both extreme left and extreme right want very radical actions taken in support o…

> Anyone else notice that both extremes have the same policies?

They absolutely 100% do not. What are you even on about?

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