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The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

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Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#151

Post by ToucanLoucan »

Our_Benefactors wrote: post #118
ToucanLoucan wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AI boosters cling to this notion because it's the only way the massive data center buildouts make any sense at all. I guess you could say the US is winning the frontier AI race. Okay. I'm never going to grant a cloud service access to all the contents of my hard drive, that's just never going to happen, so if you expect me and a lot of people like me who feel similarly to get on this train, you better have a local, l…

The thing is, frontier model providers don’t take your feelings into account even a little bit. It’s totally irrelevant to the discussion about the service they can provide, because that service is predicated on access to high power GPU slices that local models can’t touch. Those providers won’t be in an existential crisis because some people choose the privacy route, it’s a cost of doing business.

Right but that service being sold is predicated on products being sold to users, yes? Or are we still pretending that the hyperscalers can just pass the same $20 billion between themselves and that's going to be a growth industry forever?

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#152

Post by m3kw9 »

thepasch wrote: post #7

Article title: “The US is winning the AI Race” Article content: “The US are capitalizing on AI the best” A lot of assumptions there that no one can actually verify as true right now. If commercialization into rent-seeking SaaS landscapes is the endgame, then yeah, the US is winning the AI race. If individualization, local LLMs, and consumer hardware are the endgame, China is winning the AI race. If it’s something ent…

even without any of that anyone you ask who's used AI to any professional degree will agree US is winning AI race right now. Future, who knows

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#153

Post by seanmcdirmid »

SubiculumCode wrote: post #38
thepasch wrote: post #7

Article title: “The US is winning the AI Race” Article content: “The US are capitalizing on AI the best” A lot of assumptions there that no one can actually verify as true right now. If commercialization into rent-seeking SaaS landscapes is the endgame, then yeah, the US is winning the AI race. If individualization, local LLMs, and consumer hardware are the endgame, China is winning the AI race. If it’s something ent…

That seems like a lot of rationalization to me. China is pursuing these because they cannot compete on the frontier. Yes, there is a possibility that all that compute is not needed, but it is a rather remote possibility, and there is no doubt that, given the choice, China would be pursuing frontier model building with closed, propietary-only offerings.

China is competing in value AI because they cannot work at the frontier, but how is this bad at all? It’s like how the USA has the best drones but they are a few million dollars apiece while China has DJI.

If China could work at the frontier, I don’t know, I kind of think they would still be dumping a lot of resources into exploring the value side since they have that culture already in place.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#154

Post by mghackerlady »

SubiculumCode wrote: post #140
mghackerlady wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually, Chinas free speech, while abysmal, is better than you're making it out to be. They only really care if they see you as a threat, which realistically isn't too far off from the US both currently and historically

I understand that there is some freedom of speech in China, but I don't think the implication is that US and China are functionally equivalent. In the U.S. you can criticize the president all day every day and have millions of followers. Could you do that in China? The more people listen to you, the more dissident opinions become a threat.

I'm not suggesting they are the same, rather, that if the US saw you as a real threat you'd be shut up pretty quickly. The threshold for what is considered a big enough threat is different, but they both have the ability to shut you up and have in the past. Any government would act the same, at least a competent one. The governments 0th priority is ensuring its continued existence, since all of the other functions rely on its existence

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#157

Post by brabel »

nba456_ wrote: post #95
nodja wrote: post #48

No, the US is _leading_ the AI race, but the race isn't over. What's the point of leading the race for 90% of it, if they're gonna slip on their own sweat and fall down by the end? In non metaphorical terms, what's the point of spending billions of dollars rushing to get the best AI tech at all costs, when the competition can distil your progress and catch up in 6-12 months while only spending 1% of what you spent. E…

> No, the US is _leading_ the AI race, but the race isn't over. When someone says their football team is winning in the first half, do you say, "Umm, no, they're leading, not winning!"

Yes?!

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#158

Post by abalashov »

Galanwe wrote: post #69
DeathArrow wrote: post #34

GLM, Kimi, MiMo, Minimax, Deepseek, Qwen would like to have a word. :)

This. I dont know what the benchmarks are supposed to represent, but to me Kimi K2.6 is indistinguishable from e.g Opus 4.6.

How much would one have to invest in hardware to feasibly run a usefully large Kimi K2.6?

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#159

Post by Ekaros »

nodja wrote: post #48

No, the US is _leading_ the AI race, but the race isn't over. What's the point of leading the race for 90% of it, if they're gonna slip on their own sweat and fall down by the end? In non metaphorical terms, what's the point of spending billions of dollars rushing to get the best AI tech at all costs, when the competition can distil your progress and catch up in 6-12 months while only spending 1% of what you spent. E…

What if it is not winner take all? What if there is no race. What if what USA has been doing is just burning money with possibly unsustainable debt load and way over build valuations...

AI being commodity server capacity might be a thing. And the customers might even manage without hyperscalers... In that sort of end scenario whole current market might look rather foolish.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#160

Post by [deleted] »

Avicebron wrote: post #100
adjejmxbdjdn wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Whatever you think about elite politicians and the super-rich, they’re not the “deep state”. The whole idea of the deep state is that it’s part of the state, ie government, so not private citizens, and they’re “deep” ie hidden below the layers of government. Thats the exact opposite of politicians and the ultra rich.

Lol I'm pretty sure the "deep state" just means, "manipulating the levers of power from a place without accountablity/oversight" which covers both these shadowy hidden layers of govt you describe and the shadowy wealthy elites funding and lobbying for whatever. It can be both.

[deleted]
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