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How can Apple deal with the memory shortage?

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Re: How can Apple deal with the memory shortage?

#151

Post by pixl97 »

kristianp wrote: post #59
astrange wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

DRAM fabs are their own well-known specialized process which is covered by the DRAM companies. It doesn't make sense to start a competitor for it.

There's a bunch of chinese DRAM companies currently playing catchup to get closer to modern densities. Could Apple buy one of those? I'm guessing there would be regulatory hurdles to that on both sides of the pond.

China is playing a totally different game here.

Can a US company by a Chinese company... no. Number one, China won't let them. Number 2, China is building up these companies as a strategic reserve against the US/Korea for when they eventually go to war. So, yea, eventually the US will ban any imports of memory from those companies which would turn it into a toxic asset for Apple.

Re: How can Apple deal with the memory shortage?

#152

Post by kube-system »

kennywinker wrote: post #148
kube-system wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This makes everyone’s computer slower, more expensive, and less power efficient, and 95-99% of people will never open their computer anyway.

95-99% of first owners, maybe. But when you make devices that can be affordably repaired / expanded, they will be - and then they gain another 5-10 years of useful lifespan for a second owner. If we ever want computers to be sustainably made - instead of scorching the earth with each new device - we need to stop thinking the way people treat their devices is some natural law of how things will always be.

> If we ever want computers to be sustainably made - instead of scorching the earth with each new device - we need to stop thinking the way people treat their devices is some natural law of how things will always be.

If this was solved by upgradable components, we would have "solved" e-waste in the 90s.

Component upgradability is not a sustainability solution, because it is architecturally bounded.

Re: How can Apple deal with the memory shortage?

#153

Post by ksec »

I am just sadden to see this question constantly being floated. Someday Apple will make their own memory, own chip, own Fab. It makes zero sense for them to do so. People don't seems to realise how commodity works. When price is high everyone is saying it is a cartel. When they are losing money they say it is tough luck.

Re: How can Apple deal with the memory shortage?

#154

Post by raincole »

ksec wrote: post #153

I am just sadden to see this question constantly being floated. Someday Apple will make their own memory, own chip, own Fab. It makes zero sense for them to do so. People don't seems to realise how commodity works. When price is high everyone is saying it is a cartel. When they are losing money they say it is tough luck.

Yeah. Everyone seems to forget that making memory was considered a bad business just a decade ago.

Re: How can Apple deal with the memory shortage?

#155

Post by zarzavat »

riffraff wrote: post #92
zarzavat wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No RAM, no profits. Apple has vertically integrated in the past for less reason than this. Moreover it's a massive economy of scale, while their consumer electronics competitors are busy fighting a losing battle against the server market for chips, Apple can undercut them, grow their market share and get even more service revenue.

RAM prices surging in the AI hype era does not mean they'll stay there for decades (see xAI already letting one data center go), and it would take a long time for Apple to become competitive. Should they also start CPU fabs? Batteries? Lithium mines?

The risks are not symmetric. If the RAM crisis becomes the new normal it threatens Apple's business model which requires large quantities of RAM.

On the other hand, if Apple invests in RAM production and prices fall, it's not like the investment is wasted, RAM is a commodity. They lose at worst the opportunity cost of deploying the capital inefficiently, but they have so much that it hardly matters.

Apple should take this crisis as a warning that they aren't vertically integrated enough to protect their business model.

As for batteries, Apple is not even close to the largest consumer of batteries. If they were an electric car company then yes they should be making their own batteries.

Re: How can Apple deal with the memory shortage?

#156

Post by Danox »

Apple can deal with the memory shortage in the same way they dealt with Intel saying no to building a processor for the iPhone the Apple Silicon design group can certainly do what’s necessary in house to design memory and SSD’s in house, and since Apple saved money on not participating in the AI data-center fiasco money won’t be a problem.

Apple can team up with TSMC to build some type of memory fab in the United States may take three years? Prineville, Oregon looks good close enough to water and Micron who won’t need many people once the Chinese use this memory crisis to take over the worldwide memory market…

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TSMC_Arizona TSMC announced the Arizona Fab in 2020 they won’t have the final build out until 2029 for the 2nm (Build in house go around)

Re: How can Apple deal with the memory shortage?

#157

Post by Danox »

ksec wrote: post #153

I am just sadden to see this question constantly being floated. Someday Apple will make their own memory, own chip, own Fab. It makes zero sense for them to do so. People don't seems to realise how commodity works. When price is high everyone is saying it is a cartel. When they are losing money they say it is tough luck.

The current memory crisis it’s just another/final nail in the coffin for Apple moving the design and engineering of memory in house they have the capability and they have the money to do so.

Re: How can Apple deal with the memory shortage?

#158

Post by praseodym »

Danox wrote: post #156

Apple can deal with the memory shortage in the same way they dealt with Intel saying no to building a processor for the iPhone the Apple Silicon design group can certainly do what’s necessary in house to design memory and SSD’s in house, and since Apple saved money on not participating in the AI data-center fiasco money won’t be a problem. Apple can team up with TSMC to build some type of memory fab in the United Sta…

> since Apple saved money on not participating in the AI data-center fiasco

They have unused custom built AI servers sitting in warehouses: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47221264

Re: How can Apple deal with the memory shortage?

#159

Post by Danox »

HDBaseT wrote: post #53
ruguo wrote: post #31

I wonder if companies like Apple will eventually start making memory themselves.

I would suspect at Apple scale it makes sense. Apple has started making a lot of different things in house, its only a matter of time imo.

It memory almost certainly is coming in house all you need to do is look at Apple’s history Intel out, Broadcom out, Qualcomm on the way out, Nvidia has been out for a long time, AMD is also out. Apple has the capability and the money, the current market conditions have changed I believe Apple will make plans and move on.

Re: How can Apple deal with the memory shortage?

#160

Post by Kon5ole »

rswail wrote: post #125
mlindner wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

SpaceX/xAI is investing in creating their own fab. If they can, Apple certainly can.

You've got to wonder why. It makes no sense for xAI to make their own chips. The "integration" of SpaceX/xAI is just standard Musk-move-losses-to-the-company-making-money-at-the-moment bullshit. Apple actually have the runs on the board, xAI has Musk-BS.

>It makes no sense for xAI to make their own chips.

The initial investment in chip fabs is so big it can't be justified when the established players already make enough to satisfy demand, but right now they don't so there's an opportunity.

It's still risky for sure but it makes some sense that it happens now. Hyperscalers spend 100s of billions yearly, at some point the amount given to TSMC gets larger than starting your own fab.

If success was guaranteed (it's not, as AMD and several others have learned) I think many more co's would start their own fabs in the current market.

As for why xAI, well why not - many of the others who can afford a fabbing attempt can't risk getting on TSMC's bad side even for a year or two.

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