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Waymo in Portland

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Re: Waymo in Portland

#151

Post by mmooss »

jillesvangurp wrote: post #146
singron wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If a waymo costs $200k (car+sensors+install labor) and drives 200k miles, then amortizing up-front costs alone are about $1/mile. We don't really know what the TCO of a waymo is, and it's possible it could go down with economies of scale. Rideshare drivers can get paid $1-2/mile although it varies a lot.

That's just the current cost. The long term cost structure should be based on cars that come out of the factory with all the right stuff pre-installed. There's a BOM for some extra components; many of which you might already find in some cars. Otherwise it's just another EV. So, long term the extra cost per mile relative to a driver driving the same car should be cents rather than dollars per mile. And of course if t…

> A robo taxi only has down time when there are no rides, or for charging and maintenance/cleaning.

It's wierd to see this fantasy of machines on HN, of all places - that they have no downtime, no additional costs - it's only a savings from employing people), and (not said here) they don't make mistakes.

Lots of machines have far more downtime and cost than people. Many have more maintenance hours than operating hours.

Re: Waymo in Portland

#152

Post by briffle »

Silamoth wrote: post #62
boc wrote: post #4

I've determined that my ultimate dream car would be something like a Rivian but with Waymo tech, so I can drive it manually when I want/need (snowstorms, off-road), but I can also let it drive me across the country at night while I camp in the back. Would absolutely change the way we move across the US, especially if you have hobbies that involve a lot of gear and equipment.

At least 80% of what you’re describing would be satisfied by trains and buses. It’s wild that Americans are so obsessed with self-driving cars while ignoring public transit that solves most of the problems. It’s reliable, more efficient, better for the environment, and less stressful for you. I’m not saying cars shouldn’t ever exist. The ‘last mile problem’ is a thing, and proper self-driving cars could be good for p…

I looked at taking the train from my town to Glacier National Park along with my bike. The route goes from Portland and Seattle to Chicago, and has a stop at south glacier.

Step 1, get to the local train station in my town. There are 6 trains daily between me and Portland. Also, amtrak on the cross country trains requires the bikes to be in a box, in storage cars.

So I gotta get a large bike box, and get myself, my bike, the box, and some tools to break it down to our local amtrak station. Then partially dissasemble the bike, and box it. (of course, our train station has room in it for 5-10 people, and most sit outside, uncovered, which is fun in spring.)

Then, get to the main Portland Train station, with my bike box, and backpack with my stuff and tools. Wait up to 9 hours for the hawaitha train. (its often many hours late, and only leaves once per day).

Load Bike in cargo car, and then board train late at night.

Wake up around 5am, (or later, if train is behind schedule) and disembark at Glacier, re-assemble my bike. Figure out how to get it, and the box (i'll need it for the return trip) to a hotel or AirBnB.

For the return trip, its about the same, 1 daily westbound train, that is usually hours late, then hope you get to portland before the last train for the day leaves for my town, or else find a place to stay with a bike, backpack, and bike box in the sketchy area around the trainstation...

Or, hop in a car with a bike rack, and drive 10 hours. Which is easier, and MUCH cheaper if I split the cost of gas with someone else. So 2 extra travel days back for vacation, and much less stress.

Re: Waymo in Portland

#153

Post by xnx »

bojan wrote: post #70
xnx wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Multiple factors: market viability, climate compatibility, capacity, and definitely regulatory factors. Currently DC, NYC, Boston and Chicago are all being slowed down by anti-Waymo groups like Uber drivers and public-transit lobbyists.

Waymo is a sort of public transit. It's just an vastly more inefficient than any other form of public transit, but an order of magnitude more efficient than private passenger cars.

> Waymo is a sort of public transit.

Definitely, and at no cost to taxpayers.

> It's just an vastly more inefficient than any other form of public transit

Waymo is less efficient in the narrow case of transporting hundreds of people between two specific points at a specific time, but more efficient for almost every other case.

If Waymo had dedicated right-of-way in the same way trains do, it would be more efficient.

Re: Waymo in Portland

#154

Post by ggreer »

tristanj wrote: post #55
pkulak wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are Waymos cheaper than hiring a person?

Waymo inflates their prices to be above that of Uber/Lyft because they don't have enough vehicles to meet demand. But their operating costs / mile are lower than that of Uber/Lyft. I'd estimate their internal cost per mile is approx. half that of Uber/Lyft. They pocket the rest because they need to recoup decades of expensive R&D. There is also no reason to compete with Uber/Lyft on price because they are just leavin…

It's not clear to me if their costs are lower yet. Waymo's vehicles are rather expensive (estimates for their newer Zeekrs are around $75k each), and they need to pay some number of remote monitors for exceptional situations (as noticed during the recent blackout in San Francisco). They also have to collect tons of data to build & maintain high resolution 3D maps of the areas they operate in. And they have to pay engineers to improve the self-driving software.

Waymo passed 200 million driverless miles in February. If we optimistically assume they're up to 300 million miles now, and every mile was paid for at $10 per mile, that's $3 billion in revenue since they launched. In that same time, Waymo has gotten $27 billion in funding. Of course they haven't spent anywhere close to that amount, and they are optimizing for faster rollout rather than profitability, but the finances aren't as gleaming as one might expect.

I'm sure Waymo will figure out ways to reduce their costs over time, but right now I think they're charging pretty close to what they need to break even.

Re: Waymo in Portland

#155

Post by jrflowers »

starkparker wrote: post #127

For context, this is coming in as TriMet is laying off staff, reducing service frequency, eliminating bus lines, and cutting parts of light rail routes due to a $300M budget shortfall. The cuts were exacerbated by state Republicans getting a proposed payroll tax repeal onto the ballot next month; TriMet relies heavily on payroll taxes that are deeply unpopular among the self-employed and small business owners, so the…

> Waymo shows up with a convenient solution to both problems.

No it didn’t. Bus rides cost $2.80 in Portland.

Re: Waymo in Portland

#156

Post by xnx »

pkulak wrote: post #39
xnx wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My personal enthusiasm can come off this way, but I'm excited for it as a cyclist, someone whose brother was killed by a driver, and general cutting edge technology hobbyist.

Same here, as someone who doesn't drive much, and is generally a "vulnerable road user". I've seen Waymos drive. When they screw up, it's by stopping dead under an abundance of caution. They never speed. They can spot a ped or cyclist from blocks away. Every time I take an Uber home, the driver is guaranteed to drive 40+ on the 20mph road in front of my house while blasting through crosswalks with people waiting to c…

> the driver is guaranteed to drive 40+ on the 20mph road in front of my house while blasting through crosswalks with people waiting to cross

...while high on marijuana and watching TikTok

> The rain will be a real test though!

Maybe, between the fog of San Francisco and the downpours of Miami, they Waymo Driver is very experienced.

Re: Waymo in Portland

#157

Post by fragmede »

nickvec wrote: post #59
ortuna wrote: post #25

So, these streets are so tiny and pedestrians are used to just walking out on crosswalks because most people stop at crosswalks

Waymo has no problem navigating the narrow streets of SF.

One of my friends talks about this skate park on Stevenson st, which is a cobblestone road in San Francisco. It's ostensibly a two way road, but with street parking, it isn't really. Or rather, in order for two full sized cars to fit, one of the cars has to go up on the curb. Waymo's don't seem capable of doing this (yet, on that street), and jam up that road whenever there's traffic on it. Waymo's has problems with that narrow SF street and any amount of traffic on it.

Re: Waymo in Portland

#158

Post by starkparker »

jrflowers wrote: post #155
starkparker wrote: post #127

For context, this is coming in as TriMet is laying off staff, reducing service frequency, eliminating bus lines, and cutting parts of light rail routes due to a $300M budget shortfall. The cuts were exacerbated by state Republicans getting a proposed payroll tax repeal onto the ballot next month; TriMet relies heavily on payroll taxes that are deeply unpopular among the self-employed and small business owners, so the…

> Waymo shows up with a convenient solution to both problems. No it didn’t. Bus rides cost $2.80 in Portland.

And in August, the bus line that serves my neighborhood completely goes away, and the next closest bus line with stops 2 miles away will end weekday service after 6:30 p.m. and weekend service altogether.

I don't give a fuck if it's free, if it's inaccessible. I'm not crossing SE Foster on a rainy evening to catch a bus that won't take me home afterward.

Re: Waymo in Portland

#159

Post by [deleted] »

tristor wrote: post #150
svnt wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that is the case if the majority has or exercises little to no effective social power to enforce the norm. The majority consensus is to desire a peaceful environment but do nothing when it is violated.

Correct. But the golden question is, do what? The authorities don't care. Rules and laws are rarely enforced, and when they are enforced they're done so unevenly. If you decide to take matters into your own hands, it's much more likely that you will be punished by the law than the person you were correcting. So, what do you expect people to do?

[deleted]

Re: Waymo in Portland

#160

Post by xnx »

starkparker wrote: post #127

For context, this is coming in as TriMet is laying off staff, reducing service frequency, eliminating bus lines, and cutting parts of light rail routes due to a $300M budget shortfall. The cuts were exacerbated by state Republicans getting a proposed payroll tax repeal onto the ballot next month; TriMet relies heavily on payroll taxes that are deeply unpopular among the self-employed and small business owners, so the…

If Portland is really forward-thinking, they would be smart to use this opportunity to jump to the next stage of public transport by focusing on flexible bus routes and Waymo/rideshare subsidies for the poor and disabled.
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