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US special forces soldier arrested after allegedly winning $400k on Maduro raid

cnn.com

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Re: US special forces soldier arrested after allegedly winning $400k on Maduro raid

#151

Post by analog31 »

doom2 wrote: post #127

I thought prodiction markets benefit from insider knowledge. Isn't the whole point that insiders make bets, thereby surfacing knowledge and allowing for more accurate forecasts? So wouldn't we want more military service members making bets? In this case, any potential military target of the US would really want this insider info.

I think the problem is similar to insider sports betting, which is that once someone has made a bet, they will try to influence policy decisions in order to profit from that bet.

It's not so much insider knowledge that's a problem, but insider influence. You're paying people to make bad decisions.

Re: US special forces soldier arrested after allegedly winning $400k on Maduro raid

#152

Post by mcmcmc »

doom2 wrote: post #127

I thought prodiction markets benefit from insider knowledge. Isn't the whole point that insiders make bets, thereby surfacing knowledge and allowing for more accurate forecasts? So wouldn't we want more military service members making bets? In this case, any potential military target of the US would really want this insider info.

Maybe we just don’t want prediction markets.

Re: US special forces soldier arrested after allegedly winning $400k on Maduro raid

#153

Post by altmanaltman »

singingtoday wrote: post #98
XorNot wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ah enlightened centrism rears its head again. Remember folks: at all points both sides are exactly the same /s.

If you guilt me into voting, I'll probably vote for somebody you don't like. Isn't it better that I don't vote?

"better" for whom?

Re: US special forces soldier arrested after allegedly winning $400k on Maduro raid

#154

Post by analog31 »

doom2 wrote: post #127

I thought prodiction markets benefit from insider knowledge. Isn't the whole point that insiders make bets, thereby surfacing knowledge and allowing for more accurate forecasts? So wouldn't we want more military service members making bets? In this case, any potential military target of the US would really want this insider info.

I think the problem is similar to insider sports betting, which is that once someone has made a bet, they will try to influence policy decisions in order to profit from that bet.

It's not so much insider knowledge that's a problem, but insider influence. You're paying people to make bad decisions.

Although, it would be amusing to create a sports league where the athletes are expressly permitted to wager on the outcome of their games.

Re: US special forces soldier arrested after allegedly winning $400k on Maduro raid

#155

Post by mcmcmc »

kobalsky wrote: post #123
paulpauper wrote: post #5

Feds waited no time to drop the indictment and make arrest. 3 months is lightning fast for a white collar crime. Wall St. ppl who commit insider trading pay a fine and admit no wrongdoing, discouraging the profits, and only after many years and trades have passed. Goes to show how elites play by a different set of rules. His mistake was not knowing he was not in that club. Have no idea why this was downvoted. I see s…

This doesn't seem like a simple white collar crime. If the military are betting on the operations they will carry it's virtually espionage.

Wouldn’t that make insider trading virtually corporate espionage?

Re: US special forces soldier arrested after allegedly winning $400k on Maduro raid

#158

Post by xhevahir »

herewulf wrote: post #62
jandrewrogers wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> nabbing the little guy Politics aside, he isn't a "little guy". He apparently holds the rank of master sergeant. That's a senior battalion-level role and somewhat political. This isn't some random E-4 getting dragged.

This might burst some bubbles but this is absolutely a little guy because anything below a field grade officer (or the CSM sidekick below brigade) is a little guy and a battalion is actually quite low on the food chain. Yes, there are some hard working NCOs and junior Os out there that make shit happen, but they are not the decision makers and make for great fall guys when shit hits the fan.

He may be a little guy but that doesn't mean that he's a fall guy. The Special Forces at Fort Bragg are a law unto themselves. I've just finished reading The Fort Bragg Cartel and the things some of those guys have been up to, and the leniency of both their commanding officers and the local civilian police toward them, are shocking. Drug smuggling, murder, theft of arms, coming back from deployment with tens of thousands of dollars taped to their persons...not to mention the war crimes.

Re: US special forces soldier arrested after allegedly winning $400k on Maduro raid

#159

Post by usefulcat »

9x39 wrote: post #57
jandrewrogers wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> nabbing the little guy Politics aside, he isn't a "little guy". He apparently holds the rank of master sergeant. That's a senior battalion-level role and somewhat political. This isn't some random E-4 getting dragged.

Compared to a member of US Congress, or the senior executive branch, or the CEO class, they’re still nobody and the “little guy”. Not that it’s defensible behavior.

Is he important enough to get a presidential pardon? That's how you know whether he's a "little guy".

To be fair, that bar is quite a bit lower these days, but still..

Re: US special forces soldier arrested after allegedly winning $400k on Maduro raid

#160

Post by denom »

usefulcat wrote: post #159
9x39 wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Compared to a member of US Congress, or the senior executive branch, or the CEO class, they’re still nobody and the “little guy”. Not that it’s defensible behavior.

Is he important enough to get a presidential pardon? That's how you know whether he's a "little guy". To be fair, that bar is quite a bit lower these days, but still..

What's the going rate for pardons these days?
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