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The RAM shortage could last years

theverge.com

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Re: The RAM shortage could last years

#151

Post by dminik »

righthand wrote: post #124
rekabis wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think this will smack the hands of developers who don’t manage RAM well And hopefully kill Electron. I have never seen the point of spinning up a 300+Mb app just to display something that ought to need only 500Kb to paint onto the screen.

The point is you can be lazy and write the app in html and js. Then you dont need to write c, even though c syntax is similar to js syntax and most gui apps wont require needing advanced c features if the gui framework is generous enough. Now that everyone who cant be bothered, vibe codes, and electron apps are the overevangelized norm… People will probably not even worry about writing js and electron will be here to…

What "advanced features" are there to speak of in C? What does the syntax of C being similar to JS matter?

This comment makes no sense.

Re: The RAM shortage could last years

#152

Post by tgma »

whatever1 wrote: post #147
bombcar wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don’t the memory makers always get left holding the bag? I feel this has happened at least three times before.

All of the capital intensive businesses face this issue. Chemicals, Shipping, Semiconductors etc. You get market signals that the demand is there, you acquire the necessary capital, you spend 5 years to build capacity, but guess what, 5 other market players did the same thing. So now you are doomed, because the market is flooded and you have low cash flow since you need to drop prices to compete for pennies. Now you…

> Capitalists claim that this is optimal.

Because that does not happen exactly as you say for all players. The demand signals will be processed and long-term risk is balanced against short-term gain in a distributed fashion, so not everyone will do the same.

Re: The RAM shortage could last years

#153

Post by hypercube33 »

daemonologist wrote: post #106
nostrademons wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What kind of consumer electronics can you build with HBM? That's the startup you should be founding...

AMD has built some consumer GPUs in the recent past with HBM - RX Vega and Radeon VII (although I assume not all "HBM" is created equal).

Isn't their APU also capable of doing HBM? There was an Intel AMD hybrid chip that used unified a while back too.

Re: The RAM shortage could last years

#154

Post by jeroenhd »

chintech2 wrote: post #23

I'm a bit surprised the article makes no mention of China's new memory companies. [0] https://techwireasia.com/2026/04/chinese-memory-chips-ymtc-c...

As the article states:

>CXMT still trails Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron by approximately three years in advanced DRAM node development, and yield rates on new production lines remain the variable that determines whether capacity targets translate into reliable supply. Liu notes that lines launched in the second half of 2026 are unlikely to change the global supply-demand balance until 2027.

The Verge article talks about demand exceeding supply in 2028. Your article suggests it'll take until 2029 before Chinese production catches up to current technology.

It'll help drive prices down in five yearss, but the Chinese memory production won't be ready and efficient enough to prevent the shortages from continuing to grow.

Re: The RAM shortage could last years

#155

Post by righthand »

dminik wrote: post #151
righthand wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The point is you can be lazy and write the app in html and js. Then you dont need to write c, even though c syntax is similar to js syntax and most gui apps wont require needing advanced c features if the gui framework is generous enough. Now that everyone who cant be bothered, vibe codes, and electron apps are the overevangelized norm… People will probably not even worry about writing js and electron will be here to…

What "advanced features" are there to speak of in C? What does the syntax of C being similar to JS matter? This comment makes no sense.

Well theres the whole c89 vs c99. I’ll let you figure the rest out since it’s a puzzle in your perspective.

Re: The RAM shortage could last years

#156

Post by wordpad »

whatever1 wrote: post #147
bombcar wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don’t the memory makers always get left holding the bag? I feel this has happened at least three times before.

All of the capital intensive businesses face this issue. Chemicals, Shipping, Semiconductors etc. You get market signals that the demand is there, you acquire the necessary capital, you spend 5 years to build capacity, but guess what, 5 other market players did the same thing. So now you are doomed, because the market is flooded and you have low cash flow since you need to drop prices to compete for pennies. Now you…

>Capitalists claim that this is optimal.

It's more optimal than planned economies until we have AI planned economies with realtime feedback, I guess.

Consumers get cheap goods during oversupply and most inefficient companies get elliminated during bust while consolidation leads to economies of scale.

Re: The RAM shortage could last years

#157

Post by kev009 »

whatever1 wrote: post #147
bombcar wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don’t the memory makers always get left holding the bag? I feel this has happened at least three times before.

All of the capital intensive businesses face this issue. Chemicals, Shipping, Semiconductors etc. You get market signals that the demand is there, you acquire the necessary capital, you spend 5 years to build capacity, but guess what, 5 other market players did the same thing. So now you are doomed, because the market is flooded and you have low cash flow since you need to drop prices to compete for pennies. Now you…

Is the DRAM industry really capitalist? Focusing on just the Korean parties, it functions like a command economy. I would say the same about most high end semi-conductor manufacturing, TSMC, Intel, ASML are being commanded and driven by nation-state level decision making. Right now the command is to focus on high wattage centralized AI systems at the expense of everything else.

Re: The RAM shortage could last years

#159

Post by DoctorOetker »

AnthonyMouse wrote: post #94
DoctorOetker wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

its not like all the RAM is passing the same machine, they can gradually increase machines and observe the change in demand, and smoothly match it.

If they gradually increase production capacity then prices stay high for 10+ years (or for as long as it takes for demand to crash) because a gradual increase in production takes that long for them to add enough capacity for current demand. If they add enough capacity to meet current demand quickly then if demand crashes they still have billions of dollars in loans used to build capacity for demand that no longer exi…

do we have evidence of RAM manufacturers going bankrupt? do we have evidence that the increased capacities after the mentioned past shortages went unused or were operated at a loss?

Re: The RAM shortage could last years

#160

Post by lsiq »

whatever1 wrote: post #147
bombcar wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don’t the memory makers always get left holding the bag? I feel this has happened at least three times before.

All of the capital intensive businesses face this issue. Chemicals, Shipping, Semiconductors etc. You get market signals that the demand is there, you acquire the necessary capital, you spend 5 years to build capacity, but guess what, 5 other market players did the same thing. So now you are doomed, because the market is flooded and you have low cash flow since you need to drop prices to compete for pennies. Now you…

The book Capital Returns: Investing Through the Capital Cycle details this phenomenon, including historical cases.

If anything, it shows it's possible for you to arbitrage this and in doing so help "smooth out the cycle."

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