Earlier quoted context omitted.
Base load is a feature, not a bug. Companies planning new industrial facilities need long-term guarantees of reliable 24×7 power with predictable rates. Otherwise they'll build elsewhere. Dispatchable power doesn't help them.
Base load power cannot provide predictable rates because it provides a fixed amount of power that the market then bids on. If there's too much demand rates go up arbitrarily high. If there's too little rates go to zero. Dispatchable power is the only sort of power that provides 24x7 power with predictable rates. If there's more demand, you produce more power (at the same cost). If there's less, you produce less so yo…
For the first time in the U.S., renewables generate more power than natural gas
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Re: For the first time in the U.S., renewables generate more power than natural gas
#152Earlier quoted context omitted.
Base load power cannot provide predictable rates because it provides a fixed amount of power that the market then bids on. If there's too much demand rates go up arbitrarily high. If there's too little rates go to zero. Dispatchable power is the only sort of power that provides 24x7 power with predictable rates. If there's more demand, you produce more power (at the same cost). If there's less, you produce less so yo…
Is a more predictable rate obviously better than a lower average rate?
Re: For the first time in the U.S., renewables generate more power than natural gas
#153Re: For the first time in the U.S., renewables generate more power than natural gas
#154Earlier quoted context omitted.
All current grid storage will fully discharge in less than 4 hours at max watts. It is designed to level daily demand variability. To make a 4 hour battery last for a week at the same wattage would make it cost 42 times as much.
Yes, this is how the basic arithmetic works. What's your point? I see now that your original post had a fantastical claim that we need weeks of battery storage, which is a fantastical claim. In reality we will need variable amounts of battery but a "week long" battery is not supported by a single detailed grid study I have ever seen. When I have asked Pell to justify claims of "weeks long battery" the only justificat…
To make sure we are on the same page are you envisioning a grid powered 100% by wind + solar + batteries?
Re: For the first time in the U.S., renewables generate more power than natural gas
#155Earlier quoted context omitted.
Base load is marketing term for electricity supply which cannot economically follow the demand curve and is only affordable if you can use a constant supply of it. It's not a feature, it's a bug. What you want is dispatchable power. The term vaguely makes sense if there are sources of electricity that output a constant supply that are cheaper than the dispatchable sources of power. Like nuclear was supposed to be (bu…
> What you want is dispatchable power. That's the most expensive one, especially if you both need it to be reliable (can't be a battery that can run out) and need it to not emit CO2 (can't be natural gas peaker plants). So what you want is to minimize the amount of dispatchable power that you need . Which is what baseload does up to the point that it's generating the "base" (i.e. typical daily minimum) amount of load…
This is the assumption that justifies the term "base load". In most cases it is simply false.
> especially if you both need it to be reliable (can't be a battery that can run out)
No source of power is 100% reliable, in practice power plants have unplanned outages a single-digits-percent amount of the time. Batteries charged by non-dispatchable power easily match this.
Of course in reality you want a grid with many power plants so that when one is down the rest probably aren't. "Probably" does some work though, for example: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-29/half-of-f...
Excess dispatchable power helps make up for when that probably doesn't turn out in your favor.
> and need it to not emit CO2
If we're banning CO2 emissions then up until the last couple of years in most places your only option would be to overbuild nuclear until the point that it was dispatchable and not base load power. Naturally no one did this because it would be obscenely expensive. Now of course you'd have the options of any of the clean energy sources (nuclear, solar, wind, tidal, etc) powering batteries.
Re: For the first time in the U.S., renewables generate more power than natural gas
#156Earlier quoted context omitted.
> What you want is dispatchable power. That's the most expensive one, especially if you both need it to be reliable (can't be a battery that can run out) and need it to not emit CO2 (can't be natural gas peaker plants). So what you want is to minimize the amount of dispatchable power that you need . Which is what baseload does up to the point that it's generating the "base" (i.e. typical daily minimum) amount of load…
> That's the most expensive one This is the assumption that justifies the term "base load". In most cases it is simply false. > especially if you both need it to be reliable (can't be a battery that can run out) No source of power is 100% reliable, in practice power plants have unplanned outages a single-digits-percent amount of the time. Batteries charged by non-dispatchable power easily match this. Of course in rea…
Which is the reason batteries can't make for a reliable grid by themselves. There is a strong correlation for every battery being unable to provide power at the same time because they all start discharging instead of charging when demand exceeds supply and the longer that continues the fewer batteries you have that still have any charge, and therefore the higher the withdrawal rate on the remaining ones to extract the same number of total watts, until you have none.
> "Probably" does some work though, for example: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-29/half-of-f...
This is why you want a diverse set of generation sources so that you don't get correlated outages. It's better to have nuclear and renewables than just one or the other. France is unique in the world for having more than the optimal amount of nuclear. And it's really more like nuclear is concentrated in France and connected to a European grid containing several other things, but then you can't say that 50% of generation was offline because of this.
Also notice that even the "unplanned" reduction in output was still pretty planned. They find an issue that requires mitigating at multiple plants, so more than the usual number have to be taken offline at some point in the same year, but they get to choose when and can do most of them outside the period of peak seasonal demand, instead of letting the weather choose when.
> Excess dispatchable power helps make up for when that probably doesn't turn out in your favor.
Suppose you had enough battery storage to run the whole grid for 24 hours instead of for 4 hours. Then you unexpectedly discover that half of your power plants (regardless of what type they are) have to be taken offline for two months for repairs/maintenance. How much good are you getting out of 20 hours when you essentially need 30 days?
> If we're banning CO2 emissions then up until the last couple of years in most places your only option would be to overbuild nuclear until the point that it was dispatchable and not base load power.
Hydro is even older than nuclear and there are places where it's close to 100% of generation. If you don't have enough dam sites for that but still have some then using nuclear for base load and hydro for load following has been a solid option with zero fossil fuels since nuclear became available.
But nobody is even proposing to use nuclear as dispatchable power. Its purpose is base load regardless of what form of dispatchable power you use, and the purpose of base load is to reduce the amount of dispatchable power that you need.
Re: For the first time in the U.S., renewables generate more power than natural gas
#157Extending the life of existing power infra is low-hanging fruit for more power short term, but the economics of renewables are just unstoppable. Article states 93% of new generation capacity was renewable which is good, but I can sense that nimbyism is growing towards wind and solar. Not to mention the animus towards China who has wisely cornered manufacturing of these. The US has shot itself in the foot because of i…
I still don't understand the economics when it comes to power all the time, not some of the time, and I rarely see that being mentioned in this sort of gung-ho post. I want to feel how you feel - can you help with the specifics there?
Re: For the first time in the U.S., renewables generate more power than natural gas
#158Earlier quoted context omitted.
industry needs perdictable cheap power. They only care about base load because it is traditionally cheap enough to schedule your energy intensive work around. Wind and solar are much cheaper and we are often good enough at predicting it for industry.
Not for industry that needs to run when the sun isn't shining and the wind isn't blowing. Sure, in theory maybe someday battery storage will present another option but that won't be realistic or economically feasible for many years.
Re: For the first time in the U.S., renewables generate more power than natural gas
#159Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yes, this is how the basic arithmetic works. What's your point? I see now that your original post had a fantastical claim that we need weeks of battery storage, which is a fantastical claim. In reality we will need variable amounts of battery but a "week long" battery is not supported by a single detailed grid study I have ever seen. When I have asked Pell to justify claims of "weeks long battery" the only justificat…
My point is that no one is building 1 week batteries because they would be incredibly expensive. To make sure we are on the same page are you envisioning a grid powered 100% by wind + solar + batteries?
Don't forget existing hydro, new advanced geothermal, existing nuclear (until they all reach end of life), etc. etc. etc.
Re: For the first time in the U.S., renewables generate more power than natural gas
#160Earlier quoted context omitted.
> That's the most expensive one This is the assumption that justifies the term "base load". In most cases it is simply false. > especially if you both need it to be reliable (can't be a battery that can run out) No source of power is 100% reliable, in practice power plants have unplanned outages a single-digits-percent amount of the time. Batteries charged by non-dispatchable power easily match this. Of course in rea…
> Of course in reality you want a grid with many power plants so that when one is down the rest probably aren't. Which is the reason batteries can't make for a reliable grid by themselves. There is a strong correlation for every battery being unable to provide power at the same time because they all start discharging instead of charging when demand exceeds supply and the longer that continues the fewer batteries you…