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US – Iran negotiations end with no deal reached

nytimes.com

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Re: US – Iran negotiations end with no deal reached

#151

Post by WarmWash »

Gud wrote: post #104
kumarvvr wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The money thing is true. But China and Russia will extend support. Iran is collecting about 2 million USD from each vessel through the strait. And they are about 50 passing through them each day. That's 100 million USD per day. Or about 30 odd Bullion USD per year. Plenty of money to spend on war and some more. Not to mention the money it earns from selling it's oil and blocking GCC oil.

> Iran is collecting about 2 million USD from each vessel through the strait. No they aren’t. They’re collecting ¥14M. Maybe nitpicking, but I believe this is the most important change to come out of Israel’s and USA’s war against Iran. The petrodollar is dead, and this will have severe long term consequences for the USA.

Oil is dead so we shouldn't sweat it.

Once boomers rotate out of power and people who still have plastic brains take over, the rotation away from oil will speed up dramatically. Right now it's looking like $5/gal is a surety, and we might even see $6.

All the people paying $80 to fill up their eco car are going to be wondering if not being able to drive 7 hours once a year without stopping for a 30 minute charge is really worth it for sticking with gas.

Re: US – Iran negotiations end with no deal reached

#152

Post by mtlmtlmtlmtl »

YZF wrote: post #59
kumarvvr wrote: post #23

What leverage does US actually have here? Even Israel for that matter? The only options left for US are large scale bombing, like in Vietnam or Cambodia OR putting soldiers on the ground. Going on for years. Or drop a nuke. Bombing will be of limited use and extremely costly, because is Iran is too large. Its a geographical fortress, mostly large mountain ranges, or deserts. Soldiers on the ground means a large scale…

To figure out the leverage just imagine 50 fighter jets over your head each with 6 heavy bombs where their goal is to blow you up. Now argue that those controlling those jets have no leverage. Bombing has limits but can also do a lot of damage. It's true not every single IRGC member or leader can be bombed out of existence. But many can. It's also true that some infrastucture is buried. But a lot isn't. Specifically…

Riyadh, a city of 7 million people gets basically all of its drinking water from desal plants in the Persian Gulf. If those plants get knocked out, they're just gonna "fly in drinking water"? So with some napkin math, assuming 1 litre of water per person per day(which is extremely conservative considering they're in the desert heading into the hottest part of the year), that's 7 million litres of water every day. Can they "fly in" 7000 tons of water every single day? And where is all this water coming from? I have serious doubts about Saudi Arabia having "no problem" doing this.

Re: US – Iran negotiations end with no deal reached

#153

Post by megamike »

What China Just Learned From the Iran War: Beijing watched America bomb Iran and drew its own conclusions about red lines, deterrence, and Taiwan. The lessons are not the ones Washington wants China to learn: A blockade of Taiwan would hurt the global economy more than Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. https://www.theatlantic.com/national-security/2026/04/china-...

Re: US – Iran negotiations end with no deal reached

#154

Post by swat535 »

YZF wrote: post #59
kumarvvr wrote: post #23

What leverage does US actually have here? Even Israel for that matter? The only options left for US are large scale bombing, like in Vietnam or Cambodia OR putting soldiers on the ground. Going on for years. Or drop a nuke. Bombing will be of limited use and extremely costly, because is Iran is too large. Its a geographical fortress, mostly large mountain ranges, or deserts. Soldiers on the ground means a large scale…

To figure out the leverage just imagine 50 fighter jets over your head each with 6 heavy bombs where their goal is to blow you up. Now argue that those controlling those jets have no leverage. Bombing has limits but can also do a lot of damage. It's true not every single IRGC member or leader can be bombed out of existence. But many can. It's also true that some infrastucture is buried. But a lot isn't. Specifically…

You clearly haven't learned your lesson from IRAQ, Afghanistan and Vietnam.

You can continue to nuke Iran to oblivion and it will not make a difference.

IRGC welcomes it, you think they care about Iranians? All you are doing is bombing hospitals, schools and civilian areas.

By the way, in all those countries, you had full air dominance, in Iran you barely have air superiority. The crowning jewels of America has been hit and many other aircraft shot down: F35, F15, multiple drones, etc. All your assets in GCC are heavily damaged, expensive aircraft carriers were hit and forced to retreat..

All the IRGC military assets are underground, air strikes alone will not penetrate it. Also IRAN has the proxies that will cause even more pain you for.

Now that you lost IRAQ, IRGC gained yet another militia.

You'll have to launch a multi year ground war, to even have a shot at attempting to take the nation.

I promise you that a nation of 90M people is not going to welcome you.

Re: US – Iran negotiations end with no deal reached

#155

Post by iugtmkbdfil834 »

SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #79
iugtmkbdfil834 wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

FWIW, the whole conflict is a study on how much wars have changed. Information was always a part of it, but I have never seen it at a point, where I am entirely unsure on what is actually happening. Granted, some of the confusion appears to be by design courtesy of our president, who considers flailing some sort of grand strategy ( which may well work in real estate, but is ill-suited for something like this ). I can…

With respect, I think it's extremely clear what's actually happening, and the idea that it's confusing is a defense mechanism. The US and Israel launched a series of decapitation strikes, with the explicit and repeatedly stated expectation that this would lead to the overthrow of the Iranian government. Then it didn't work, so they started a strategic bombing campaign. Then that campaign proved ineffective at keeping…

What you say might be true, but what you are saying this with some benefit of hindsight ( and even that is incomplete as we will likely learn more in years to come ).

And this is exactly what I am referring to. The physical reality is what it is and won't care much for propaganda ( even soviet Russia eventually learned you can't sustain that forever ). But, to your point, I don't see both sides showing much hesitation.

If it helps, I am not saying you are wrong, but you may be already too entrenched in your worldview if you see fog of war as 'defense mechanism' and not a designed feature now supercharged by AI ( with some fascinating examples too ).

Re: US – Iran negotiations end with no deal reached

#156

Post by Hikikomori »

Protostome wrote: post #137
cassianoleal wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

LOL JD Vance is your news source? Pakistani PM is the actual source as a sibling comment made clear.

[flagged]

He did call trump Hitler but it's likely Iran would as well.

Re: US – Iran negotiations end with no deal reached

#157

Post by leereeves »

acdha wrote: post #133
YZF wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To figure out the leverage just imagine 50 fighter jets over your head each with 6 heavy bombs where their goal is to blow you up. Now argue that those controlling those jets have no leverage. Bombing has limits but can also do a lot of damage. It's true not every single IRGC member or leader can be bombed out of existence. But many can. It's also true that some infrastucture is buried. But a lot isn't. Specifically…

> It's true not every single IRGC member or leader can be bombed out of existence. But many can. In the last half century, we tried that in Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, and now Iran. When is it going to start working? The problem is that blowing stuff up creates enemies, not friends, so each time you kill one senior leader you create incentives for the other people those bombs killed to decide you’re worse than the ta…

In 2024, a survey by GAMAAN estimated that "A significant majority of Iranians (around 70%) oppose the continuation of the Islamic Republic."

Then the government of Iran murdered thousands to crush protests and retain power. Why would the people of Iran still be upset at the death of senior government leaders? (Apart from the minority who already supported the regime, continued to support them even as they killed protestors, and are very loud now.)

1: https://gamaan.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/Iranians-Polit...

Re: US – Iran negotiations end with no deal reached

#158

Post by Hikikomori »

Protostome wrote: post #108
4gotunameagain wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Like you I do not have a direct line with the diplomats of the involved countries, but every major news outlet was including Lebanon in the agreement. What Israel is doing by itself is occupying more land and vilifying the concept of humanity, not "taking the south under control". Let me remind you that Hezbollah has founded as a direct reply to the '82 invasion of Lebanon by Israel. The whole source of pain, misery…

[flagged]

Hezbollah attacks generally come after Israel does something.

Re: US – Iran negotiations end with no deal reached

#160

Post by bigyabai »

YZF wrote: post #72
kumarvvr wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The money thing is true. But China and Russia will extend support. Iran is collecting about 2 million USD from each vessel through the strait. And they are about 50 passing through them each day. That's 100 million USD per day. Or about 30 odd Bullion USD per year. Plenty of money to spend on war and some more. Not to mention the money it earns from selling it's oil and blocking GCC oil.

Russia is in no position to support anyone. See their support of their friend Assad where they actually had military presence. They'll provide intelligence and targeting info like they've been doing. China doesn't seem that interested to help the regime. They'll get their oil from any regime. They'll sell them stuff but I don't see them paying the salaries of the IRGC. There are not 50 vessels passing per day and als…

> Russia [will] provide intelligence

> China [will] sell them stuff

Being able to import advanced munitions and coordinate them with satellite intelligence is basically all Iran wants/needs. They're not interested in hiring Chinese mercenaries, sustaining a surface fleet or keeping planes in the sky - they need leverage, and their allies are giving it to them.

The support being offered is serious business, and I'm surprised that you'd write it off because Russia won't install an Iranian tripwire force and China won't cut IRGC paychecks.

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