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The first 40 months of the AI era

lzon.ca

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Re: The first 40 months of the AI era

#151
post #79

> While I’m certain that this technology is producing some productivity improvements, I’m still genuinely (and frustratingly) unsure just how much of an improvement it is actually creating. I often wonder how much more productive I'd be if just a fraction the effort and money poured into LLMs was spent on better API documentation and conventional coding tools. A lot of the time, I'm resorting to using an AI because I…

This is facts. All of this talk about putting agent skills directly into repos (as Markdown!) is maddening. "Where were LITERALLY ALL OF YOU whenever the topic of docs as code came up?" This is doubly maddening with NotebookLMs. They are becoming single sources of knowledge for large domains, which is great (except you can't just read the sources, which is very "We will read the Bible to you" energy), but, in the pas…

> Where were LITERALLY ALL OF YOU whenever the topic of docs as code came up?

Docs as code is still writing and not coding. Those are simply different skills. As programmers, we find coding to be fun and glamorous and writing to be difficult. Emotionally, it's much easier to finish a piece of code and feel genuinely happy with it (you are proud of your achievement) than it is to write a paragraph of docs and feel genuinely happy with it (you can feel in your bones that it's not good but you don't know how to improve it and you just want it over with). We have not built anywhere near the level of skill for writing than we did for coding when we wrote our own little programs for ourselves and never built a habit of thinking about how other people would interact with our code.

(For me, this is exacerbated by having been more isolated from other people than the average population, partly due to neurodivergence and partly because the hobby was niche at the time, and I assume this is also true of a lot of people currently employed as professional programmers.)

Re: The first 40 months of the AI era

#152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps in the long run there will be very few developers globally; but in the short term, I see less and less use for the whole idea of low-cost outsourcing. The historical value of a low cost region is get crap work for few dollars. "Just barely good enough". AI can do this by itself. If you add AI to poor work, you get more extremely shit work for less dollars. If you add AI to a skilled worker you get a large vol…

You pay just enough for slop, you get slop. There are plenty of very good developers in India who still cost a tenth of your salary. I think I know which choice the corporations are going to go with.

I can only speak to what I see in my social circle; but the general conclusion is the value is not there currently, and the AI tools theoretically make the payoff decline relative to on-shoring.

Either these tools dont do much, and its business as usual with the cycle of attempts to offshore failing.

Or the tools produce massive quantities of mediocre work, the low-cost developer is now obsolete. Markets that relied on quantity to sustain the industry evaporate. The problems hiring overseas are only amplified by this, leading to increased overhead finding the skilled developers. Other issues such as timezones, large team coordination, political risks, and cultural mismatch remain, and smother a shrinking sector.

Or the tools work very well; and if they produce better quality than you can then you are obsolete. Development generally as a concept is unrecognizable.

Re: The first 40 months of the AI era

#153

The biggest positive I have seen is not so much in the new tools, but in new ways to convince the higher ups to do sensible things. We always find that small teams of locals can do much much more than a team with an unlimited number of low cost "developers". Not just because the competence of low cost devs is poor, but also the structure of how you work changes for the worse with a bigger team, for the worse with a d…

> So we have been able to argue things like add one local + ai is better than about 20-100 Indians And you just say this like it’s nothing. Lack of respect to tons of Indian people who work in IT, of which I have had the pleasure to work with.

I am yet to see quality work come out of India.

I do not believe I have even seen "good value" output.

What is there to respect?

Re: The first 40 months of the AI era

#154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You will start to recognize it over time. The major AI models each have their own voice and patterns that they overuse. The more you see those patterns the more you start recognizing them. By now I can recognize quickly if a blog post or README.md was generated by Claude or ChatGPT because the signs are so obvious. Even Hacker News comments that are AI written are easy to spot if they weren't edited. I know I'm not a…

I don't see how to interpret your claims. How do you yourself know that you're right when you "recognize" Claude or ChatGPT? How do you know how much of the text you don't recognize as any LLM is actually LLM-generated? My recollection is whenever I've seen data on this--the educators who think they can spot students cheating--the conclusion is people are really bad at identifying LLM-generated content.

I'm not claiming to be able to spot 100% of LLM written output

However the default tone and output style of Claude and ChatGPT are very obvious.

> My recollection is whenever I've seen data on this--the educators who think they can spot students cheating--the conclusion is people are really bad at identifying LLM-generated content.

If you can share that data we can discuss it, but there's nothing really to discuss here without a source

Among people who review a lot of user-submitted content, it becomes easy to spot the consistent voice of LLM writing. Wikipedia has a full page on it: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Signs_of_AI_writing

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