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Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

theguardian.com

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Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#151

Post by srean »

roadside_picnic wrote: post #136
netsharc wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't the problem that they can't end the war unilaterally? The Iranian regime is justifiably pissed off and is still flinging drones and rockets towards any viable target, and any ceasefire will be with acceptance of their terms. The Trump/Netanyahu collection of dumb ego won't be able to accept being dictated terms. So like in Game of Thrones, we hope a Jamie Lannister shows up...

This was my thought as well. Trump today claims he had long discussions with Iranian leadership over the weekend and Iran claims such a thing never happened. Not only is Iran justifiably angry at its attackers, they have no reason to trust a ceasefire would be respected, and, furthermore, despite damage taken, stand to gain quite a lot if the war progresses as it has. Currently Iran is exporting more oil than ever be…

The last few times Iran participated in talks and agreed on a ceasefire it worked against them.

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#152

Post by srean »

jmyeet wrote: post #86
pjc50 wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Still nowhere near as bad as the Vietnam war. Arguably not even as big a mistake as the CIA coup against Mossadegh, which is the poisoned tree from which the present situation grows. I wonder how the coup in Cuba will turn out. That has to happen before the midterms, and he's unlikely to wait for Iran to resolve.

I think is a worse disaster than Vietnam. Why? Because the Vietnam War was localized. It was devastating to the people who got drafted and obviously devastating to the Vietnamese as well as the Cambodians that Nixon and Kissinger decidedly to relentless bomb for literally no reason. There was internal dissent but that was, saldy, quashed quite successfully. The US simply doesn't have the military capability to invade…

The Arab allies are going to be plenty pissed if US leaves without degrading Iran. They were doing fine before the US intervened, now they are worse of than they were before.

Head hurts to think how this will play out.

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#153

Post by duderific »

SilverElfin wrote: post #39

Every single action taken under this administration has been either primarily for corrupt grifting or has been turned into that, to the benefit of the Trump family, their friends, and their donors. It’s ridiculous how open all of it is. And the people and companies benefiting from it are pretending like they’re not the bad guys.

In our current system, the only defenses against corruption:

- Standards and norms, which obviously the current administration doesn't give a rat's ass about

- Failing that, Congress has to step in and impeach and convict. This won't happen because the Republicans have completely rolled over

So, here we are.

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#154

Post by tmnvix »

bethekidyouwant wrote: post #110
TacticalCoder wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Their drones are cheap easy to conceal, and can keep the straight closed indefinitely. And what other leverage do they have besides them keeping the straight closed?

> And what other leverage do they have besides them keeping the straight closed?

They also have the potential for Houthi involvement - threatening shipping in the Red Sea. In addition the Houthis or Iran themselves are more than capable of disabling Saudi Arabia's Red Sea port - shutting off a major relief valve for gulf oil exports.

In short, Iran has plenty of further escalation options (i.e. leverage). Not to mention the ongoing threat they present to Israel which I believe they are more than capable of increasing. If you doubt that, I would suggest searching for some of Ted Postol's commentary regarding Iran's missile attacks and Israel and the US's ability to defend against them. He is very dubious that they can and that the 80-90% intercept rates are in fact baloney. He does have prior form here - being essentially the only one to question patriot missile effectiveness vs scuds in the Iraq war. He claimed a full order of magnitude less effectiveness than reported (9% I believe) and was proven right.

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#155

Post by Hikikomori »

srean wrote: post #151
roadside_picnic wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This was my thought as well. Trump today claims he had long discussions with Iranian leadership over the weekend and Iran claims such a thing never happened. Not only is Iran justifiably angry at its attackers, they have no reason to trust a ceasefire would be respected, and, furthermore, despite damage taken, stand to gain quite a lot if the war progresses as it has. Currently Iran is exporting more oil than ever be…

The last few times Iran participated in talks and agreed on a ceasefire it worked against them.

Israel also bombed their negotiators last year.

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#156

Post by Hikikomori »

coevcan wrote: post #107
mikkupikku wrote: post #17

If the administration decides to end this stupid war just so they can cash out some profitable bets... I don't even know what I would think. The whole thing is so stupid it makes my head hurt.

Are you really going to suggest trump cares about an $820k bet? He doesn't even care to collect his presidential salary. I'm sure he exaggerates his wealth, but we know he's at least a billionaire.

He's made billions in just crypto schemes. Then the bribes to pardon people. It just gles on and on. He never provided evidence that he didn't accept the salary, just said he donated it to federal agencies, which you cannot even do.

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#157

Post by tmnvix »

pjc50 wrote: post #51
tmnvix wrote: post #15

> “For the purposes of this market, an ‘official ceasefire agreement’ requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.” (by March 31) Seems a rather risky bet considering how deep Israel has ventured into its war in Lebanon. Very doubtful they will stop anytime soon. Given the leverage Israel ha…

I can't see it being over in a week. People seem to have not realized that the Iranian regime is large enough and possessed of enough of a sense of honor to not just surrender after a week. Plus the use of decapitation attacks makes it extremely difficult for the Iranians to talk each other down. And the US can't negotiate on behalf of Israel or bind them to not break the ceasefire, because there's a separate and muc…

> On the other hand, there is no way to "destroy Trump's career". The US system doesn't have confidence votes. You're stuck with him.

If they lose the senate, then impeachment becomes possible, no?

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#158

Post by jacquesm »

TacticalCoder wrote: post #63
tmnvix wrote: post #15

> “For the purposes of this market, an ‘official ceasefire agreement’ requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.” (by March 31) Seems a rather risky bet considering how deep Israel has ventured into its war in Lebanon. Very doubtful they will stop anytime soon. Given the leverage Israel ha…

[flagged]

Some of the stuff you read on HN...

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#159

Post by gos9 »

mikkupikku wrote: post #17

If the administration decides to end this stupid war just so they can cash out some profitable bets... I don't even know what I would think. The whole thing is so stupid it makes my head hurt.

You think polymarket is where this game is being played? For a couple hundred thousand dollars?

Since when do profoundly stupid people use this site?

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#160

Post by edgyquant »

idle_zealot wrote: post #43
huijzer wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When do we cross the barrier from incompetent to nefarious?

It's not an either-or question; they're very transparently both nefarious and incompetent.

So what does that say about their opposition who lost all three branches of government to them?
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