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AI coding is gambling

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Re: AI coding is gambling

#151

Post by murkt »

SkyPuncher wrote: post #139
m00x wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AI coding is gambling on slot machines, managing developers is betting on race horses.

Only if your AI coding approach is the slot machine approach. I've ended up with a process that produces very, very high quality outputs. Often needing little to no correct from me. I think of it like an Age of Empires map. If you go into battle surrounded by undiscovered parts of the map, you're in for a rude surprise. Winning a battle means having clarity on both the battle itself and risks next to the battle.

Good analogy! Would be interesting to read more details about how you’re getting very high quality outputs

Re: AI coding is gambling

#152

Post by luckydata »

it's gambling until you learn how to set up proper harnesses then it just becomes normal administration. It's no different than running a team, humans make mistakes too, that's why we have CI pipelines, automated testing etc... AI assisted coding "JUST" requires you to be extra good at that part of the job.

Re: AI coding is gambling

#153

Post by simonw »

throw4847285 wrote: post #140
simonw wrote: post #10

Assigning work to an intern is gambling: they're inherently non-deterministic and it's a roll of the dice whether the work they do will be good enough or you'll have to give them feedback in order to get to what you need.

There are two major mistakes here. The first is equating human and LLM intelligence. Note that I am not saying that humans are smarter than LLMs. But I do believe that LLMs represent an alien intelligence with a linguistic layer that obscures the differences. The thought processes are very different. At top AI firms, they have the equivalent of Asimov's Susan Calvin trying to understand how these programs think, beca…

> And, if we're being honest, the way people talk about interns is weirdly dehumanizing, and the fact that they are always trotted out in these AI debates is depressing.

Yeah, I agree with that.

That thought crossed my mind as I was posting this comment, but I decided to go with it anyway because I think this is one of those cases where I think the comparison is genuinely useful.

We delegate work to humans all the time without thinking "this is gambling, these collaborators are unreliable and non-deterministic".

Re: AI coding is gambling

#154

Post by NickNaraghi »

It's only "gambling" for now...

The odds of success feel like gambling. 60%, or 40%, or worse. This is downstream of model quality.

Soon, 80%, 95%, 99%, 99.99%. Then, it won't be "gambling" anymore.

Re: AI coding is gambling

#155

Post by hk__2 »

pdntspa wrote: post #126
bluefirebrand wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but I finally feel like I'm _good_ at programming, which is insane, because I literally haven't written a line of code myself in months This is exactly the sort of mentality that makes me hate this technology You finally feel good at programming despite admitting that you aren't actually doing it Please explain why anyone should take this seriously?

Because the programming is and was always a means to an end. Obsessing over the specific mechanical act of programming is taking the forest for the trees. I agree with gp that the speed in which I am able to execute my vision is exhilarating. It is making me love programming again. My side projects, which have been hanging on the wall for years , are actually getting done. And quickly! The actual act of keying in cod…

> The actual act of keying in code is drudgery for me. I've written so much code in so many languages that it is hard not to hate them all. Why the fuck is it a hash in ruby but a dict in python? How the hell do I get the current unixtime in this language again?!? Why the fuck do I need to learn yet another stupid vocabulary for what is essentially databinding?

These are the downsides, but there are also upsides like in human languages: “wow I can express this complex idea with just these three words? I never though about that!”. Try a new programming paradigm and that opens your mind and changes your way of programming in _any_ language forever.

Re: AI coding is gambling

#156

Post by bigstrat2003 »

Retr0id wrote: post #11
minimaxir wrote: post #5

The gambling metaphor often applied to vibecoding implies that the outcome cannot be fully controlled or influenced, such as a slot machine. Opus 4.5 and beyond show that it not only can be very much can be influenced, but also it can give better results more consistently with the proper checks and balances.

Poker is a skill-based game where your actions influence your success, but many people who play it are gambling.

Poker has elements of both luck and skill. The luck element + wagering money is what makes it gambling.

Re: AI coding is gambling

#157

Post by [deleted] »

pdntspa wrote: post #126
bluefirebrand wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but I finally feel like I'm _good_ at programming, which is insane, because I literally haven't written a line of code myself in months This is exactly the sort of mentality that makes me hate this technology You finally feel good at programming despite admitting that you aren't actually doing it Please explain why anyone should take this seriously?

Because the programming is and was always a means to an end. Obsessing over the specific mechanical act of programming is taking the forest for the trees. I agree with gp that the speed in which I am able to execute my vision is exhilarating. It is making me love programming again. My side projects, which have been hanging on the wall for years , are actually getting done. And quickly! The actual act of keying in cod…

[deleted]

Re: AI coding is gambling

#158

Post by krupan »

watzon wrote: post #110

I think this article makes a valid point. However, if AI coding is considered gambling, then being a project manager overseeing multiple developers could also be seen as a form of gambling to a certain degree. In reality, there isn't much difference between the two. AI models are non-deterministic, and humans are also non-deterministic. You could assign the same task to two different developers and end up with entire…

I ssk an AI to play hangman with me and looked at it's reasoning. It didn't just pick a secret word and play a straightforward game of hangman. It continually adjusted the secret word based on the letters I guessed, providing me the "perfect" game of hangman. Not too many of my guesses were "right" and not too many "wrong" and I after a little struggle and almost losing, I won in the end.

It wasn't a real game of hangman, it was flat out manipulation, engagement farming. Do you think it's possible that AI does that in any other situations?

Re: AI coding is gambling

#160

Post by bigstrat2003 »

smlacy wrote: post #50
jsLavaGoat wrote: post #28

Everything is "fast, cheap, good--pick two." This is no different.

I like the analogy but which 2 is AI coding? Fast & Cheap (but not Good?) - I wouldn't really say that AI coding is "cheap" Cheap & Good (but not Fast) - Again, not really "cheap" Fast & Good (but not Cheap) - This seems like maybe where we're at? Is this a bad place?

It's not cheap or good, it's just fast.
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