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US Job Market Visualizer

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Re: US Job Market Visualizer

#151

Post by gzread »

dwroberts wrote: post #54
observationist wrote: post #22

It's kinda cool to see a whole lot of otherwise intelligent people who are so dogmatically and ideologically opposed to anything AI that they're going to willfully dismiss anything that AI produces regardless of utility. It's not great for them, but it's a definite advantage for people who are already in the mindset of distinguishing and discriminating information and sources on merit, instead of running an "AI bad"…

> AI has already won. It's taking over. It might be a year or two, or five, or ten, but AI isn't slowing down, nobody is going to pause, and there's a whole shit ton of work people do that won't be meaningful or economically relevant in the very near term Maybe it was linked from a comment somewhere on HN but just today I saw a post saying “Microwaves are the future of all food: if you don’t think so, you better get…

This is a great analogy, because just like AI, microwaves are good for quick fixes, tasks where you don't really care about the quality and would rather minimise the effort.

Re: US Job Market Visualizer

#152

Post by cj »

mjr00 wrote: post #102
gtr wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know it's not the point of the comment but it's a bit of a flawed analogy. Microwaves have wone to a large extent, such that people without them are a bit of an oddity, and cooking with an oven is more of a special occasion thing than the default cooking method that it was before.

> cooking with an oven is more of a special occasion thing than the default cooking method that it was before. This is an incredible self-report. If you consider microwaved meals to be your default method of cooking and not something primarily for reheating leftovers or defrosting frozen meat, I sincerely hope you've gotten your cholesterol and blood pressure checked recently. That is not normal.

I haven't used my oven since buying a counter top air fryer (and a sous vide) a couple years ago. I can't think of a single reason why anyone needs a full size oven on a daily basis unless you're cooking for a large family.

Re: US Job Market Visualizer

#153

Post by ericmay »

gzread wrote: post #145
nlawalker wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Re: kitchen appliance analogies, I stand by my "AI is a dishwasher" analogy. It's annoying that the dishes still have some pooled water in them when the cycle finishes; it doesn't always get everything perfectly clean; I have to know not to put the knives or the wooden stuff or anything fancy in it. But in spite of all of that, I use it every day, it's a huge productivity boost, and I'd hate to be without it.

And other people choose to wash dishes by hand and they're fine with it and not significantly less productive. The use of a dishwasher wasn't forced on everyone.

It's actually less productive for dishwasher-safe dishes, there's simply no question about that.

Hand-washing dishes also, from what I understand, uses more energy and water than the dishwasher does.

Re: US Job Market Visualizer

#154

Post by BlusterG »

bwhiting2356 wrote: post #14

Are childcare and kindergarten teachers really exposed to AI? In theory, we could put a class of 30 children in front of chatbots with one supervisor. But I doubt we would chose to do this as a society. If office work becomes more automated, early childhood education is actually one area I'd expect to take up the Slack. I can't imagine a situation where we have millions of unemployed former office workers but we leav…

In which theory? And if you can do anything in theory, then there is no justifiable "but" or any excuse. The only problem is your own ability to realize it or unexpected situation. A theory is a fact, a proven hypothesis, with all its parts such as formulas, laws, or a force as in the THEORY of gravitation. And no, you don't have one, and I assure you that you've never had a theory in your life.

Re: US Job Market Visualizer

#155

Post by ap99 »

nlawalker wrote: post #142
dwroberts wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> AI has already won. It's taking over. It might be a year or two, or five, or ten, but AI isn't slowing down, nobody is going to pause, and there's a whole shit ton of work people do that won't be meaningful or economically relevant in the very near term Maybe it was linked from a comment somewhere on HN but just today I saw a post saying “Microwaves are the future of all food: if you don’t think so, you better get…

Re: kitchen appliance analogies, I stand by my "AI is a dishwasher" analogy. It's annoying that the dishes still have some pooled water in them when the cycle finishes; it doesn't always get everything perfectly clean; I have to know not to put the knives or the wooden stuff or anything fancy in it. But in spite of all of that, I use it every day, it's a huge productivity boost, and I'd hate to be without it.

I get where you're coming from but dishwasher is definitely a "could live just fine without."

Fridge OTOH, not so much.

Re: US Job Market Visualizer

#156

Post by gwbas1c »

gtr wrote: post #75
dwroberts wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> AI has already won. It's taking over. It might be a year or two, or five, or ten, but AI isn't slowing down, nobody is going to pause, and there's a whole shit ton of work people do that won't be meaningful or economically relevant in the very near term Maybe it was linked from a comment somewhere on HN but just today I saw a post saying “Microwaves are the future of all food: if you don’t think so, you better get…

I know it's not the point of the comment but it's a bit of a flawed analogy. Microwaves have wone to a large extent, such that people without them are a bit of an oddity, and cooking with an oven is more of a special occasion thing than the default cooking method that it was before.

> and cooking with an oven is more of a special occasion thing than the default cooking method that it was before.

That really only makes sense if for households with a toaster oven, single adults, childless couples, and retired people. A toaster oven makes a lot more sense for small meals, in part because it can heat up much faster than a full oven.

Otherwise, a daily family meal isn't a special occasion.

Re: US Job Market Visualizer

#158

Post by AstroBen »

observationist wrote: post #22

It's kinda cool to see a whole lot of otherwise intelligent people who are so dogmatically and ideologically opposed to anything AI that they're going to willfully dismiss anything that AI produces regardless of utility. It's not great for them, but it's a definite advantage for people who are already in the mindset of distinguishing and discriminating information and sources on merit, instead of running an "AI bad"…

Uh huh.. but the data in Andrej's visualizer is showing software development growth outlook is at 15% (much faster than average)

Over the past year (where Opus has supposedly changed the game), we're seeing ~10% more job postings for software developers compared to this time last year [1,2]

A huge amount of our work is not easily verifiable, therefore it's extremely hard to actually train an LLM to be better at it. It doesn't magically get better across the board.

AI HAS WON. SURF OR DROWN. YOU DONT KNOW WHATS COMING!!!?!?!

Stop with this doomer drivel. It's sick. It's not based in reality and all it does is stress innocent people out for no reason.

1: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE

2: https://trueup.io/job-trend

Re: US Job Market Visualizer

#159

Post by surgical_fire »

observationist wrote: post #22

It's kinda cool to see a whole lot of otherwise intelligent people who are so dogmatically and ideologically opposed to anything AI that they're going to willfully dismiss anything that AI produces regardless of utility. It's not great for them, but it's a definite advantage for people who are already in the mindset of distinguishing and discriminating information and sources on merit, instead of running an "AI bad"…

> AI has already won. It's taking over. It might be a year or two, or five, or ten, but AI isn't slowing down, nobody is going to pause, and there's a whole shit ton of work people do that won't be meaningful or economically relevant in the very near term.

I think AI is not going anywhere.

I also don't think the future will play out as you envision. AI is a very poor replacement for humans.

And I say this as a misanthrope who doesn't have a particular beef against AI.

Re: US Job Market Visualizer

#160

Post by anematode »

ggggffggggg wrote: post #148
nyeah wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Assume I want to believe exactly what you're saying. What is that, though? a. "Has already won" b. "Might be a year or two, or five, or ten"

You’re playing chess. You see that you have a forced mate in several moves. You’ve already won, but it will happen in 2, or 5, or 10 moves.

(This isn't how chess mate-finding works.)
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