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Claude struggles to cope with ChatGPT exodus

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Re: Claude struggles to cope with ChatGPT exodus

#151

Post by Balgair »

EQmWgw87pw wrote: post #122
Balgair wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

→All these guys are just commodity to us. Just want to note something there: Okay, premise that AI really is 'intelligent' up to the point of business decisions. So, this all then implies that 'intelligence' is then a commodity too? Like, I'm trying to drive at that your's, mine, all of our 'intelligence' is now no longer a trait that I hold, but a thing to be used, at least as far as the economy is concerned. We did…

Well as of right now, mathematically and scientifically, the way an LLM works has nothing to do with how the human brain works.

Neither does a pneumatic piston operate at all like a bicep nor does an accounting book operate at all like a hippocampus. But both have taken well enough of the load off both those tissues that you be crazy to use the biological specimen for 99% of the commercial applications.

Re: Claude struggles to cope with ChatGPT exodus

#152

Post by [deleted] »

hparadiz wrote: post #110
cmiles8 wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But those holding said proprietary data have figured out they’re holding the cards now and have gotten a lot smarter recently. Companies are being very careful about what gets used for inference vs what they allow to be used for training. I don’t see the core models getting dramatically better from where they are now. We’ve clearly hit a plateau.

Really? I mean I see regularly as I'm coding how much better it could be simply by running obvious prompts for me. When I use the planning mode and then code the success rate is much higher. When I ask it to work on specific isolated chunks of code with clear success/failure modes the success rate is again much higher. Now imagine a world where it recognizes that from my simple throw away non specific prompt. If it w…

[deleted]

Re: Claude struggles to cope with ChatGPT exodus

#153

Post by EQmWgw87pw »

Balgair wrote: post #151
EQmWgw87pw wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well as of right now, mathematically and scientifically, the way an LLM works has nothing to do with how the human brain works.

Neither does a pneumatic piston operate at all like a bicep nor does an accounting book operate at all like a hippocampus. But both have taken well enough of the load off both those tissues that you be crazy to use the biological specimen for 99% of the commercial applications.

A bicep and a piston both push and pull things, but an AI cannot do what a smart brain can, so I don’t think being smart will no longer have an advantage. I mean, someone has to prompt the AI after all. The mental ability to understand and direct them will be more important if anything.

Re: Claude struggles to cope with ChatGPT exodus

#154

Post by linkregister »

k32k wrote: post #135
bonoboTP wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ok, maybe pretraining is now complete and solved. Next up: post-training, reinforcement learning, engineering RL environments for realistic problem solving, recording data online during use, then offline simulation of how it could have gone better and faster, distilling that into the next model etc. etc. There's still decades worth of progress to be made this way.

" There's still decades worth of progress to be made this way." That's not true. Moreover the progress can slow to a crawl where it's barely noticeable. And in that world the humans continues to stay ahead - that's the magic of humans. To be aware of surroundings and adapt sufficiently whilst taking advantage of tools and leveraging them.

This is an interesting theoretical statement that does not survive a collision with reality. The long-tail expert RHLF training is effective. We have seen significant employment impact to call center employees. This does not mean its progress will be cheap or immediate.

Re: Claude struggles to cope with ChatGPT exodus

#155

Post by Balgair »

EQmWgw87pw wrote: post #153
Balgair wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Neither does a pneumatic piston operate at all like a bicep nor does an accounting book operate at all like a hippocampus. But both have taken well enough of the load off both those tissues that you be crazy to use the biological specimen for 99% of the commercial applications.

A bicep and a piston both push and pull things, but an AI cannot do what a smart brain can, so I don’t think being smart will no longer have an advantage. I mean, someone has to prompt the AI after all. The mental ability to understand and direct them will be more important if anything.

Have you worked with the Claude agents a lot? They essentially prompt themselves! It's crazy.

My meaning is not so much that intelligence will go away as a useful trait to individuals. But more that it's utility to the economy will be a commodity, with grades and costs and functions. But again , I'm speculating out of my ass here.

In that, if you want cheap enough intelligence or expensive and good intelligence, you can just trade and sell and buy whatever you want. Really good stuff will be really expensive of course.

Like, you still need to learn to write and have that discipline to use writing in lieu of memory. And you still need to repair and build machines in lieu of muscles and have those skills. Similarly I think that you'll still need the skills to use AI and commoditized intelligence, whatever those are. Empathy maybe?

Re: Claude struggles to cope with ChatGPT exodus

#156

Post by tempodox »

groestl wrote: post #69
HotHotLava wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's an ironic situation; logically what should be the moat are the models, costing hundreds of millions of investment cost to train and operate so it would make sense if we see different provider focusing in different directions. But right now we have 3-5 top contenders that are so evenly matched that the de-facto sticking point is mostly the harness, ie. the collection of proven plugins/commands/tools/agent feature…

> are so evenly matched It's because the real value of the models is in what we (humanity) fed them, and all of them have eaten the same thing for free.

To be more precise, they all stole the same stuff. I have no empathy for these crooks.

Re: Claude struggles to cope with ChatGPT exodus

#157

Post by Max-Ganz-II »

selfhoster11 wrote: post #129
Max-Ganz-II wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To stop this, I today put most of my Amazon Redshift research web-site behind a basic auth username/password wall. It's all remains free, but you need to email me for a username and password. If I put in time and effort to make content and OpenAI et al copy it and sell it through their LLM such that no one comes to me any more, then plainly it makes no sense for me to create that content; and then it would not exist…

Please add Internet Archive's bot to your auto-allows, at least. Their bot is presumably well behaved, and for public benefit.

I'm about to ask IA to remove my content!

The reason is that I expect LLM bots to be crawling IA.

Re: Claude struggles to cope with ChatGPT exodus

#158

Post by prngl »

parineum wrote: post #67
prngl wrote: post #5

It's funny how the false choice of American politics (Red vs Blue) also makes it into its consumerist corporatist life. That Anthropic's threadbare "limits" on government usage are seen as a heroic stand is a testament to just how far the goalposts on "ethical" deployment of AI have moved to the (fascist) right. As ever, politics precedes technology. We have Reagan's internet, we will have Trump's AI. God help us.

I'm not sure what the message this comment is trying to convey beyond throwing in the "corporatist" "consumerist" signalling buzzwords followed by calling the right fascists. I've literally never heard anybody call the Internet "Reagan's internet", the best I can do is the Al Gore quote and who's calling anything Trump's AI? What ideas are you trying to express here?

These are the points I'm making, which I think are fairly one-to-one with my original comment:

- American politics presents a false choice between Democrats and Republicans

- America is both a consumerist and corporatist society

- Anthropic asked for minimal limits on AI usage

- People view Anthropic's stand as heroic, while viewing OpenAI as villainous

- The false choice between Anthropic and OpenAI mirrors the false choice in American politics.

- People at OpenAI, Anthropic, and elsewhere used to view ethical deployment of AI as paramount, but those goalposts have shifted as financial and political incentives changed.

- Specifically, the ethics of AI have become conveniently synonymous with the current financial and political moment.

- The current political moment is fascist.

- Technology is broadly neutral and it is politics that primarily dictates how technology is actually used and deployed, and therefore its broad impacts.

- The internet was developed in the neoliberal era, which began with the election of Ronald Reagan and extended through the Obama presidency.

- The structure and dynamics of the internet over the last 30 years is more reflective of neoliberal politics than it is of anything inherent in the technology. Extreme privitization and the refusal to use public institutions to provision or regulate public goods.

- AI is being developed in a new political era, begun with the first Trump presidency, and taking more full shape under the second Trump presidency.

- We are likely to find that AI's trajectory is similarly dictated largely by politics rather than anything inherent to the technology.

- With this political era being fascist and explicitly neo-imperial/neo-colonial, I fear for the technology's impact on humanity.

- God help us.

Re: Claude struggles to cope with ChatGPT exodus

#159

Post by [deleted] »

causal wrote: post #46
LaurensBER wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OpenAI and Github Copilot do explicitly allow this, so do many of the new/Chinese providers such as Synthetic, Z.ai, etc. Anthropic is the outlier here, obviously they can limit their subscriptions as they want but it's a major disadvantage compared to their competitors.

> OpenAI ... explicitly allow this Explicit means it's stated in OpenAI docs somewhere, but I can't find it. Link?

[deleted]

Re: Claude struggles to cope with ChatGPT exodus

#160

Post by xscott »

causal wrote: post #51
xscott wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you expand on that. I've been wanting to try Claude for a while, but their payment processing wouldn't take any of my credit cards (they work everywhere else, so it's not the cards). I've heard I can work around this by installing their mobile app or something, but it was extra hurdles, so I didn't try very hard. And I've been absolutely amazed with Codex. I started using that with version ChatGPT 5.3-Codex, and…

Codex is not bad, I think it is still useful. But I find that it takes things far too literally, and is generally less collaborative. It is a bit like working with a robot that makes no effort to understand why a user is asking for something. Claude, IMO, is much better at empathizing with me as a user: It asks better questions, tries harder to understand WHY I'm trying to do something, and is more likely to tell me…

That is interesting, and thank you.

I've had a list of pet projects that I've been adding to for years. For those, I just say the broad strokes and tell it to do it's best. Codex has done a really good job for most of them, sometimes in one shot, and my list of experiments is emptying. Only one notable exception where it had no idea what I was after.

I also have my larger project, which I hope to actually keep and use it. Same thing though, it's really hard to explain what's going on, and it acts on bad assumptions.

So if Claude is better at that, then having two tools makes a lot of sense to me.

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