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Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

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Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

#151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Having the productivity "drop through the floor" is a bit hyperbolic, no? Humans are still reviewing the PRs before code merge at least at my company (for the most part, for now).

I don't know that it's likely but it's certainly a plausible outcome. If tooling keeps getting built for this and the financial music stops it's going to take a while for everybody to get back up to speed Remember this famously happened before, in the 1970s

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Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

#152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, it's useful for scripting, but it's still only marginally faster. It certainly hasn't been "groundbreaking productivity" like it's being sold. The problem with analyzing logs is determinism. If I ask Claude to look for evidence of compromise, I can't trust the output without also going and verifying myself. It's now an extra step, for what? I still have to go into Elastic and run the actual queries to verify wh…

The tolerance for indeterminacy is I think a generational marker; people ~20 years younger than me just kind of think of all software as indeterminate to begin with (because it's always been ridiculously complicated and event-driven for them), and it makes talking about this difficult.

I shudder to think of how many layers of dependency we will one day sit upon. But when you think about it, aren’t biological systems kind of like this too? Fallible, indeterminable, massive, labyrinthine, and capable of immensely complex and awe inspiring things at the same time…

Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

#153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd claim the opposite. Better models design better software, and quickly better software than what most software developers were writing. Just yesterday I asked Opus 4.6 what I could do to make an old macOS AppKit project more testable, too lazy to even encumber the question with my own preferences like I usually do, and it pitched a refactor into Elm architecture. And then it did the refactor while I took a piss. T…

OK so this comes back to the question I started this subthread with: where is this better software? Why isn't someone selling it to me? I've been told for a year it's coming any day now (though invariably the next month I'm told last month's tools were in fact crap and useless compared to the new generation so I just have to wait for this round to kick in) and at some point I do have to actually see it if you expect…

How would you know if all software written in the last six months shipped X% faster and was Y% better?

Why would you think you have your finger on the pulse of general software trends like that when you use the same, what, dozen apps every week?

Just looking at my own productivity, as mere sideprojects this month, I've shipped my own terminal app (replaced iTerm2), btrfs+luks NAS system manager, overhauled my macOS gamepad mapper for the app store, and more. All fully tested and really polished, yet I didn't write any code by hand. I would have done none of that this month without AI.

You'd need some real empirics to pick up productivity stories like mine across the software world, not vibes.

Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

#154
People who are saying they're not seeing productivity boost, can you please share where is it failing?

Because, I am terrified by the output I am getting while working on huge legacy codebases, it works. I described one of my workflow changes here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47271168 but in general compared to old way of working I am saving half of the steps consistently, whether its researching the codebase, or integrating new things, or even making fixes. I have stopped writing code, occasionally I jump into the changes proposed by LLM and make manual edits if it is feasible, otherwise I revert changes and ask it to generate again but based on my learnings from the past rejected output

I am terrified about what's coming

Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

#155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're missing something. I've been in ops for 30 years, Claude Code has changed how I work. Ops-related scripting seems to be a real sweet spot for the LLMs, especially as they tend to be smaller tools working together. It can convert a few sentences into working code in 15-30 minutes while you do something else. I've given it access to my apache logs Elastic cluster, and it does a great job at analyzing them ("We s…

Yeah, it's useful for scripting, but it's still only marginally faster. It certainly hasn't been "groundbreaking productivity" like it's being sold. The problem with analyzing logs is determinism. If I ask Claude to look for evidence of compromise, I can't trust the output without also going and verifying myself. It's now an extra step, for what? I still have to go into Elastic and run the actual queries to verify wh…

>still only marginally faster.

Is it? A couple days ago I had it build tooling for a one-off task I need to run, it wrote ~800 lines of Python to accomplish this, in <30m. I found it was too slow, so I got it to convert it to run multiple tasks in parallel in another prompt. Would have taken a couple days for me to build from hand, given the number of interruptions I have in the average day. This isn't a one-off, it's happening all the time.

Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

#156

I'm working on a project right now, that is heavily informed by AI. I wouldn't even try it, if I didn't have the help. It's a big job. However, I can't imagine vibe-coders actually shipping anything. I really have to ride herd on the output from the LLM. Sometimes, the error is PEBCAK, because I erred, when I prompted, and that can lead to very subtle issues. I no longer review every line, but I also have not yet got…

> However, I can't imagine vibe-coders actually shipping anything.

I'm a vibe-coder, and I've shipped lots! The key is to vibe-code apps that has a single user (me). Haven't coded anything for 15 years prior to January too.

Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

#157

People who are saying they're not seeing productivity boost, can you please share where is it failing? Because, I am terrified by the output I am getting while working on huge legacy codebases, it works. I described one of my workflow changes here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47271168 but in general compared to old way of working I am saving half of the steps consistently, whether its researching the codebas…

I'm with you. The project I'm working on is moving at phenomenal velocity. I'm basically spending my time writing specs and performing code reviews. As long as my code review comments and design docs are clear I get a secure, scalable, and resilient system.

Tests were always important, but now they are the gatekeepers to velocity.

Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

#158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yep. All AI has done for me is give me the power of how good search engines were 10+ years ago, where I could search for something and find actually relevant and helpful info quickly. I've seen lots of people say AI can basically code a project for them. Maybe it can, but that seems to heavily depend on the field. Other than boilerplate code or very generic projects, it's a step above useless imo when it comes to gam…

> how good search engines were 10+ years ago For me this is a huge boost in productivity. If I remember how I was working in the past (example of Google integration): Before: * go through docs to understand how to start (quick start) and things to know * start boilerplate (e.g. install the scripts/libs) * figure out configs to enable in GCP console * integrate basic API and test * of course it fails, because its Goog…

This is what you'd use a search engine for 10 years ago.

The docs used to be good enough that there would be an example which did exactly what you needed more often than the llm gets it right today.

Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

#159

I don't write code for a living but I administer and maintain it. Every time I say this people get really angry, but: so far AI has had almost no impact on my job. Neither my dev team nor my vendors are getting me software faster than they were two years ago. Docker had a bigger impact on the pipeline to me than AI has. Maybe this will change, but until it does I'm mostly watching bemusedly.

My employer is pretty advanced in its use of these tools for development and it’s absolutely accelerated everything we do to the point we are exhausting roadmaps for six months in a few weeks. However I think very few companies are operating like this yet. It takes time for tools and techniques to make it out and Claude code alone isn’t enough. They are basically planning to let go of most of the product managers and…

Why are you excited for this? They’re not going to give YOU those peoples’ salaries. You will get none of it. In fact, it will drag your salary through the floor because of all the available talent.

Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

#160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OK so this comes back to the question I started this subthread with: where is this better software? Why isn't someone selling it to me? I've been told for a year it's coming any day now (though invariably the next month I'm told last month's tools were in fact crap and useless compared to the new generation so I just have to wait for this round to kick in) and at some point I do have to actually see it if you expect…

How would you know if all software written in the last six months shipped X% faster and was Y% better? Why would you think you have your finger on the pulse of general software trends like that when you use the same, what, dozen apps every week? Just looking at my own productivity, as mere sideprojects this month , I've shipped my own terminal app (replaced iTerm2), btrfs+luks NAS system manager, overhauled my macOS…

It's on the people pushing AI as the panacea that has changed things to show workings. Not someone saying "I've not seen evidence of it". Otherwise it's "vibes" as you put it.
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