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OpenAI fires an employee for prediction market insider trading

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151–157 of 157 posts

Re: OpenAI fires an employee for prediction market insider trading

#151
post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is entirely made up? Most people are totally fine with speed limits being what they are and don't say anything about it.

Oh, that explains the massive difference in speed limits from one country to another then, especially if they're next door neighbors.

i don't see what that has to do with it

Re: OpenAI fires an employee for prediction market insider trading

#152
post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is entirely made up? Most people are totally fine with speed limits being what they are and don't say anything about it.

In the sense that they don't care what the sign says when it comes to their own driving? Sure.

no, in the sense that they just follow whatever the rules are and don't care very much, or mildly break them as is convenient and still don't care very much

Re: OpenAI fires an employee for prediction market insider trading

#153
post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People whose houses are robbed are against robbery, people who rob houses are very much for it.

That’s a false analogy. You have two parties who want to enter into a contract and a third party unrelated to the contract that doesn’t for whatever reason. Just based on contract law and common sense the unrelated party shouldn’t have standing. Now if there’s externalities to the contract that impact that unrelated party sure, but only insofar as to get those externalities addressed. This is not the same as a robber…

You believe that the local area has no standing, that's incorrect. Laws and regulations are third parties impeding on the contract all the time. Libertarians may dislike this, but it's one problem with democracy - the majority make decisions you don't like.

Re: OpenAI fires an employee for prediction market insider trading

#154
post #35
post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Aged accounts, shell companies, it's a market

Not in this context it's not. Companies can't create Polymarket accounts. Polymarket accounts are just email addresses or alternatively crypto wallets. And there's no purpose I can imagine to aging them.

I'm confused, why would companies be unable to create Polymarket accounts.

By talking about aged accounts and shell companies, I meant that there's black markets for aged accounts from social media platforms, and there's markets for shell companies (and to some extent warmed up emails). In both cases the age of the company gives it some value, as anyone doing due diligence on the accounts will weigh the age of the account as a positive signal.

Age of an account is a costly signal and significantly slows down Sybil attacks. Spammers pay some cost for aged accounts (even if it's just waiting and holding the inventory) and for defenders it works as a PoW system, they don't need to ignore the age signal, it works just fine.

Re: OpenAI fires an employee for prediction market insider trading

#155
post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your taxi crashes because the driver skipped brake maintenance and his insurance doesn't reimburse you for your hospital costs because commercial transportation isn't covered. Sure would be nice to have some minimum requirements for taxis.

Eh… there’s a point to be made about “enforced low risk tolerance” being a societal issue. Lead in gasoline is bad, but in general I think individuals are perfectly capable of determining whether they are willing to risk a taxi ride.

Would they risk a taxi ride if they knew that Uber failed to properly background check a driver, who later kidnapped and raped one of his passengers, and Uber's response was to hire private investigators to dig up personal information on the victim in an attempt to discredit her? [1]

[1] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-42291495

Re: OpenAI fires an employee for prediction market insider trading

#156
post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not in this context it's not. Companies can't create Polymarket accounts. Polymarket accounts are just email addresses or alternatively crypto wallets. And there's no purpose I can imagine to aging them.

I'm confused, why would companies be unable to create Polymarket accounts. By talking about aged accounts and shell companies, I meant that there's black markets for aged accounts from social media platforms, and there's markets for shell companies (and to some extent warmed up emails). In both cases the age of the company gives it some value, as anyone doing due diligence on the accounts will weigh the age of the ac…

There's just no distinction between accounts like that, 'accounts' are just crypto wallets. There's no system that would ever care about the 'age' of your account here. There's no DD. If you have a wallet, you can participate. The 'spam' prevention measure is the same as for any crypto thing: tx costs.

Re: OpenAI fires an employee for prediction market insider trading

#157
The real issue here isn't just the insider trading -- it's how thin Kalshi and Polymarket orderbooks are on niche events. You can move the price 10-15 cents on a binary contract with a few thousand dollars. That makes insider trading on these platforms both incredibly easy and incredibly profitable compared to traditional securities markets where you'd need serious capital to materially move the price.
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