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How will OpenAI compete?

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Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#151

Post by johnsmith1840 »

wombatpm wrote: post #20
gradus_ad wrote: post #14

These very valid points apply to all companies trying to make money off of proprietary models, which means margins are going to collapse in a vicious price war that will make Uber vs Lyft seem tame. As margins collapse capex will collapse. Unfortunately valuations have become so tied to AI hype any reduction in capex will signal maybe the hype has gotten ahead of itself, meaning valuations have gotten ahead of themse…

Couple of observations: Companies use to hoard talent. Now they are hoarding compute, RAM, and GPUs. Deepseek showed that there are possibly less expensive ways to train, meaning the future eye watering expenses may not happen. Bigger models may not scale. The future may be federations of smaller expert models. Chat GPTX doesn’t need to know everything about mental health, it just needs to recognize the the Sigmund v…

Echoing the other comment they showed another big thing which is that the output if an AI model is the AI model. If you mass prompt scrape their AI you can recreate it almost exactly.

Very dangerous if you think about it that the product itself is the raw building block for itself.

Openai spends 1B$ on their model, releases it and instantly it gets scrapped by a million bots to build some country or company their own model.

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#152

Post by BoredPositron »

brookst wrote: post #149
keyle wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would literally take you 5 mins to set up your wife with a competing client for her needs. Sure it's 'sticky' at least a little, but it's not a moat. A moat is a show stopper like they own you.

Just like it would take 10 seconds to buy her a Pepsi instead of her preferred Coke. Would you?

Coke doesn't change their recipe every year.

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#153

Post by akkad33 »

hattmall wrote: post #64
kshacker wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have done that at my home. My wife calls maids. They are there. I need to go to restroom. Ask my wife. She is struggling to communicate. It took me 3 seconds to realize ChatGPT could help. And it did.

Nice that ChatGPT does that, its also true that Google Translate and other APPs have had this functionality for a decade or more. I was getting live German translated on my phone in 2015 with no problems.

Google translate was not very good, it didn't get context. Deepl was better

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#154

Post by daxfohl »

Well there's the whole race to ASI thing. Whoever gets there first, the world is theirs. The thing will learn how learn, an intelligence feedback loop, make its own apps, find more efficient algorithms, deploy itself to more locations, bankrupt all competitors, embed itself in everyone's lives, and create a complete monopoly for the parent company that can never be touched. Until it goes rogue anyway.

(Aside, it's interesting how perceptions of these things have changed in one year: a whole article on OpenAI's future that makes no mention of AGI/ASI)

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#156

Post by yoyohello13 »

nozzlegear wrote: post #85
anupshinde wrote: post #74

If you were forced to choose just one of all the competing players, which is "the one" you will use? For me, the choice is ChatGPT, not for its Codex or other fancy tooling - just the chat. Not that Claude Code or Cowork is less important. Not that I like Codex over Claude Code.

Right now? Claude, so long as they don't fold to the Pentagon's demands. It's important to me that the company at least have a pretense of ethics. If they fold, I may just use open models via DDG – I don't find code assistants very useful for my workflow anyway.

Same. I wish it wasn’t the case, but even making a show of caring about ethics is about as much as we can hope to get from a company these days.

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#157

Post by kortilla »

brookst wrote: post #149
keyle wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would literally take you 5 mins to set up your wife with a competing client for her needs. Sure it's 'sticky' at least a little, but it's not a moat. A moat is a show stopper like they own you.

Just like it would take 10 seconds to buy her a Pepsi instead of her preferred Coke. Would you?

No, because that’s a product you buy for flavor and Pepsi is a different flavor.

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#158

Post by kortilla »

paxys wrote: post #84
arctic-true wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When OpenAI starts requiring a payment, or showing an ad before it starts translating, will they continue? Or will they use the Google Translate app, which can do this locally? (Or for that matter Gemini or Grok or whatever?)

“When Netflix starts showing ads who on earth will still use it?” Everyone, it turns out. Same with Google. Same with YouTube. Same with Instagram, and the rest of the web. Once people become dependent on ChatGPT (as they already are) watching a 30 second ad in the middle of a session will become second nature.

Netflix has exclusive content. Spanish to English translation is not

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#159

Post by keeda »

daxfohl wrote: post #107

One trillion capex per year? Does that mean they need everyone on the planet to get $100/yr subscriptions to stay solvent? Without a monopoly? Or a product that most people use much?

So far it's been more like triple-digit billions per year, and most of that has been coming from the Big Tech companies' operating cash flows. Debt recently entered the picture, however.

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#160

Post by mcny »

lll-o-lll wrote: post #89
ziznznzb wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you know all your conversations are in there? Honest question I have this issue a lot with AI claims. Nobody verifies the output.

I did verify the output. You can download your stuff via their api

Ok so it worked correctly today, for you. How do we know it will continue to do so five years down the road when they are suffocating for cash? The more stuff we have there, the harder it becomes to verify their takeout will have everything.
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