Russia's economy has entered the death zone • Hacker News Board

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#151

Post by nicbou » Wed, Feb 18, 2026, 1:22 AM UTC

shevy-java wrote: post #63

zh3 wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a strong supporter of Ukraine, I would say ultimately wars are won or lost by economic forces (the side that can't afford it any more loses). That's how the USSR lost the Cold War, and all I can hope is that all of Europe really has your back in this one.

But that is historically not quite true. World War 2 was not won due to the economy. And while it is true that the USSR "lost" the Cold War, they actually spent too much and entered a recurring debt from which they could no longer get out. There was no direct war here, which is different to e. g. world war 2 (at the least USA versus Germany). USSR and USA only fought some proxy wars.

Didn't their war in Afghanistan precipitate their downfall?

So many pivotal decisions in WW2 were economic in nature. Lend lease? Germany's late switch to a war economy? The Allies' much larger manufacturing capabilities?

You could also argue that the cold war stayed cold because of the West's economic might. It set a military and living standard that the USSR bankrupted itself trying to match.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#152

Post by gzread » Wed, Feb 18, 2026, 1:22 AM UTC

nradov wrote: post #86

dijit wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with your point overall but realistically speaking, its not like the death of Ukraine will fix Russias economy, even if it did: not in a single day. You can exhaust yourself completely and be dead on your feet. Doomed, is the expression.

There is a strain of thought in Russian political circles that they'll be doomed anyway due to lack of defensible borders if they fail to capture Ukraine. This could explain some of their actions that otherwise seem irrational and counterproductive.

It doesn't seem to make any sense: nobody was invading Russia until Russia decided part of Ukraine was Russia (and then Ukraine invaded it), and why would Ukraine be a more defensible border than the actual border? Ukraine borders NATO, after all.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#153

Post by gzread » Wed, Feb 18, 2026, 1:23 AM UTC

squidbeak wrote: post #75

mdavid626 wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Same for the West. If they do, they loose. That sets their position in the world. Who’d fear them? They can’t even win over a country which is much smaller and weaker than they are.

How can the West end the war today?

It could end the war quickly by nuking Ukraine, but I don't think that was the meaning behind the GP.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#154

Post by ivan_gammel » Wed, Feb 18, 2026, 1:25 AM UTC

fatbird wrote: post #149

DrProtic wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia has 2.2% unemployment Germany has 6.3% Spain 9.9% France 7.9% All while having millions of foreigners/immigrants to support.

Russian unemployment of 2.2% is a bad sign, not a good sign. For practical purposes, unemployment around 4% means full employment, because there's always a portion of the population not working for some reason: taking time off, too dumb, don't want to work, unable to for reasons of temperment or psychological health, etc. At 4% (as the US has often been in the last few decades) it's really difficult to fill menial ro…

This number doesn’t take into account immigration. Russian economy is supported by several millions of immigrants from Central Asia (the number much bigger than number of mobilized people). There was low unemployment before the war.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#155

Post by gzread » Wed, Feb 18, 2026, 1:30 AM UTC

samiv wrote: post #94

Same story for 4 years long. "Russian economy is at the brink of a collapse." Yet it Somehow just keeps ok going year after year. The truth is that the sanctions are only hurting the Eurozone more than Russia. Small minority (EU or the political west) cannot force meaningful sanctions on much larger group (BRICS). Unfortunately this is not the narrative anyone can say out loud lest they be labeled as "Putin's trolls"…

Citation please?

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#156

Post by duxup » Wed, Feb 18, 2026, 1:30 AM UTC

pavel_lishin wrote: post #43

> If your competitors are also weakening—and if you believe you can tolerate the pain longer than they can—the calculus flips. Economic pressure that should drive compromise instead reinforces the logic of persistence. I think everyone underestimates just how much misery Russia, and Russian citizens, can endure.

They're certainly a fatalistic people. That's the real scary part about authoritarianism, people quit caring. They know their leaders are crooks and so on, that's just normal to many of them.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#157

Post by O1111OOO » Wed, Feb 18, 2026, 1:44 AM UTC

I wonder if the end of Russia as a world threat is something that benefits or hurts the US.

The US runs a trillion dollar war machine, a multi-trillion dollar military industrial complex. It needs to feed it. It needs enemies. At the very least, it needs a constant threat to justify its existence (even if it has to create those threats).

If Russia ceases to be a threat, does the US begin to hassle more countries? Does it increase the Police State, does domestic surveillance become more prevalent. Are we already seeing these things?

A legitimate Russian threat might actually be good for the world and the American people.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#158

Post by nradov » Wed, Feb 18, 2026, 1:55 AM UTC

gzread wrote: post #152

nradov wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a strain of thought in Russian political circles that they'll be doomed anyway due to lack of defensible borders if they fail to capture Ukraine. This could explain some of their actions that otherwise seem irrational and counterproductive.

It doesn't seem to make any sense: nobody was invading Russia until Russia decided part of Ukraine was Russia (and then Ukraine invaded it), and why would Ukraine be a more defensible border than the actual border? Ukraine borders NATO, after all.

From the Russian perspective it actually does make a bit of sense, in a twisted sort of way. They were invaded from the west before, most recently by Hitler and before that by Napoleon. There are no good natural defenses to protect Moscow and so they seek to establish defense in depth with additional buffer territory. (I write this not to justify recent Russian acts of aggression but to explain some of their internal strategic thinking.)

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#159

Post by pandaman » Wed, Feb 18, 2026, 2:33 AM UTC

shevy-java wrote: post #58

ericmay wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They will sell their gas at discount to China until the very end. Yes and no. There's a minimum price they need to sell it, and somewhere in between they may not actually make enough between the minimum and sale price to actually fund their military. Nevermind the awesome job you guys are doing blowing up refineries and other industrial facilities. It'll be good when Europe stops importing Russian gas and steps up…

> Sanctions can and will work against Russia. We hear this mantra since almost 5 years. I am not saying there should not be sanctions, but at some point the strategic lies need to end.

Russia had been under sanctions since 2014 and in January of 2015 its economy was already "in tatters", as reported by Obama in the State of the Union that year. Then, in March of 2022, great Joe Biden proclaimed that he has turned "ruble into rubble". I am sure the 20 packages of sanctions since then destroyed anything that left and it's really just vacuum in place of Russian economy now... Why end the lies if you can call anyone pointing them out a Russian bot?

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#160

Post by Haven880 » Wed, Feb 18, 2026, 2:41 AM UTC

The only way is just to cede the land and move on. Keep the people alive. 100 years later one can renegotiate. This kind of copium hope wishing the economy collapse or something like Mongol collapse is just not practical. The longer this drag on, the lesser fertile men exist in Ukraine and the population recovery will take even longer while Russian outbirth in the long run. Sometime to win one has to abide by time. Joan or Arc and King Goujian of Yue demonstrated that principle well either by divine intervention or human vengeance. Russia is doing very well. You can check with your Russians or Northern China friends that see the conditions with their eyes and not western propaganda.