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The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

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Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#151

Living in a city that this administration has constantly been attacking forced me and my wife, as well as many of our neighbors, to put off our family growth plans. Not only did many of my neighbors lose their jobs, but others are simply fearful of living their lives. We're fine financially, have housing, etc, but at this point why would we go through the stress of raising a child when a masked federal agent might ju…

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Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#152

Why do we obsess over growing everything all the time?

The growing population of economically non-productive people requires a growing population of economically productive people to support them. At some point, you could take 100% of the output of the productive people and it would still not be enough to support retirees et al. At the limit, not growing the productive population puts younger generations in a position of existing solely for the purpose of serving the non…

Or decrease handouts to the non-working population. Maybe we cannot afford to keep seniors in their SFHs driving everywhere.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#153
post #136

If the US wants to increase its population, maybe it should stop sending masked agents out to kick in doors, directly reducing the population.

The US has endless backlog of people waiting in line to legally enter the country. It doesn’t need to keep any illegal aliens to meet its immigration goals.

The vast majority taken up in these dragnets are legal residents of the united states.

The attorney representing ICE to the courts in MN admitted it directly, admitted that ICE does not believe it needs to honor orders of the federal court system, and that they do not comply with orders to release legal residents of the united states.

You should educate yourself. Here's commentary that directly references the lawyer's responses and judge's commentary https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p6o-_2thaI8

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#154

Why do we obsess over growing everything all the time?

I am not remotely worried about birth rates. Every tech executive hyperventilating about it is extrapolating social trends decades ahead, which is the same mistake Erlich made when he published the "The Population Bomb". The total fertility rate has limitations as a metric too (it assumes constant birth timing). The fact that they do this coercive paternalism on the very platforms that substitute for real life social…

Predicting population decline is safer than overgrowth. Since with low birth rates we know we need substantially higher than replacement rates to make up for the deficit. Which seems unlikely

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#155
post #136

If the US wants to increase its population, maybe it should stop sending masked agents out to kick in doors, directly reducing the population.

The US has endless backlog of people waiting in line to legally enter the country. It doesn’t need to keep any illegal aliens to meet its immigration goals.

This logic would fly a couple of years ago.

Since then, we have seen indiscriminate violence against people and families following the rules.

And a bizzare hate campaign against H1B.

And court judgements explicitly enabling masked government agents to target someone solely on the basis of skin color.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If they were only eating there would be no problem. But they want fancy vacations. They want houses. They need drugs. They need MRI machines. And they need these things for decades for minimal cost irrespective of ability to pay. And, when they do die, they expect to pass estates tax-free to thier children. Supporting the retired population is one thing, but the day may soon come when we revisit what it means to be r…

If you want to punch up try aiming higher than the upper-middle class. Other countries have MRIs and drugs as part of universal healthcare.

Those other countries are still paying for those things somehow. (or they really have the alleged death panels critics talk about) You can shove the cost in different places, but somehow they still have to be paid.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#157
post #2

Maybe if young folks could afford housing they'd have kids...there's a thought.

Is housing really that expensive? When you price out a loan on a starter house it really ain't that bad. I'm a recent first time homebuyer and I don't understand why people think they aren't affordable. There were plenty of cheaper homes that I looked at and even with rates at their highest would be cheaper than my rent. Do people expect a palace? Are there more unmarried people today who can't afford it alone?

Based on your lower comment, Rhode Island.

Median family income $87k

Cost-of-living ~$36k excluding housing

With your example of a $350K home, someone making the median (presumably not 20-30 year olds but more like 40-45 year olds...) they could save up the $70k down payment in under 2 years.

P & I payment of ~$2k / month. Maybe $1k more for escrow of taxes and insurance.

So $72k total cost of living on $87k, assuming you've made it to median income.

Of course, if you're making less than $72k, buying a $350k house would simply be... untenable.

Also, based on rough guideline of "30% of income on housing", you'd definitely want to keep your mortgage under $2200 / month.

Census link indicates median home values are closer to $404K though, too.

https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/RI/LFE046224

https://livingcost.org/cost/united-states/ri

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#159
post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The book Bowling Alone by Robert Putnam is about the decline of civil society. Church membership is down. Labor union membership is down. Parents got crushed in the pandemic with school shutdowns, daycare shutdowns, and formula shortages. It takes two incomes to afford a family's lifestyle. Someone has to take care of the kid. Two people have to do the job of three people.

> It takes two incomes to afford a family's lifestyle. Someone has to take care of the kid. Two people have to do the job of three people. Being stay at home parent is one of the most lonely thing you can do. Yes, the parent who works in office and goes bowling with collagues is less lonely. But the one who is spending whole day with a small kid and no one else is much more lonely .They cant go bowling either, becaus…

YMMV. Plenty of groups out there to meet other parents and become friends with. I know several people who had kids and were SAHP and made lots of friends this way. Mind you, as the kids got older everyone moves around so friendships might not always last but it’s very possible. And you have a very obvious thing to bond over - being a parent.

I work at faang and have no friends from that. I’m surrounded by thousands of people every day I’m at work. Everyone is there to work - not be social or hangout or be friends. People show up to social events to grab food and take it back to their desk.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#160

The primary cause of low birth rates is that society does not value children. Sure we talk a big game, everything is 'for the children' obviously. However, we publicly divest from schools, we invest in technologies that devalue humans and human labor. Growing up we make people believe they need to be millionaires just to not be swallowed up by the 9-to-5 meat grinder (this is true actually). It's no wonder young peop…

As a parent, I genuinely question why I continue to participate in a society that tolerates traffic deaths and firearm violence like the US. If there's a large chunk of people who won't lift a finger to keep kids from being shot at school, there's a large chunk of people who value my child's life at zero.

One of the ways the Netherlands made streets safer for dismounted people was by framing it as stopping killing kids with your cars. Yes this is "think of the children" logic but since kids are generally healthy the top causes of kid death in the US are gunfire and cars.
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