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TSMC to make advanced AI semiconductors in Japan

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Re: TSMC to make advanced AI semiconductors in Japan

#151

Post by throw20251220 »

lynx97 wrote: post #117
joe_mamba wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>48-days old account Since when is the quality of arguments and the understanding of economics and politics tied to the age of your account? Is this how arguments are won here? Age discrimination goes against HN rules. Your opinion on global events is not automatically more correct than others just because you've been on HN 10 years longer than others. >posting doubious takes like this Universally recognized and fact…

They're trying to imply that fresh accounts might be used to steer opinions, IOW, they're trying to imply that you are a politically motivated kind of bot... I agree, its a rather shady approach. But here you go, we'll get more and more of this, its a conveneient method to discredit discussion partners with unwanted opinions.

It's also a little bit more prevalent since after 5 or 6 comments you get soft-banned for hours, cannot have a decent discussion here anymore.

Re: TSMC to make advanced AI semiconductors in Japan

#152

Post by throw20251220 »

joe_mamba wrote: post #91
ido wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The solution is to make the EU more like an actual unified economic and monitary union- with a central fiscal authority, unified public debt, all member states joining the Eurozone, unified tax system, etc.

So in your opinion, the solution is that individual national serenity should be abolished and the EU should have the liberty, nay, the authority to fleece its highest payers into the system, like France and Germany, and then redistribute their money to whoever and whatever it sees fit, for the "greater good" of the union, with no accountability or obligation to provide them equal benefits in return? How is this not c…

> How do you expect those people footing most of the bill to give up their status quo and voluntarily sign up for something like this?

If you do not see how someone like US or China can play 27 individual countries and divide Europe by propping one nation and discrediting another, for example recent Trump admin meddling with Poland, or Musk fiddling with German and Spanish government, then it's going to be difficult having this discussion with you.

Another aspect... Spain stopped being a dictatorship 51 years ago, half of the continent was under Soviet influence until something like 35 years ago, communist for that matter. The continent has been consolidated over the last half a century. Painting EU as the root of all evil is not a way forward.

Re: TSMC to make advanced AI semiconductors in Japan

#153

Post by throw20251220 »

acatton wrote: post #123
jorvi wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

High-end chips should be more of a EU concerted effort rather than every country for itself. The problem is that unlike Airbus, which (highly inefficiently) can be made in multiple countries, you can't really spread out parts of a fab that way. The most you can do is fab machines + chips + chip packaging. Netherlands already has fab machines and in packaging there isn't a high margin. That leaves chips, and you can b…

Airbus was never born as a European giant. It was a merging of many national champions (Aérospatiale, DASA and CASA) that were each already making full airplanes. They figured out how to spread out the manufacturing later. Airbus currently has two factories finalizing the airplane assembly: one in Toulouse and one in Hamburg. You could copy this model and just open different fab in different countries to spread produ…

There's no "one country making lithography machines". The mirrors come from Germany already. Other parts from about 160 other countries around the world. The EUV tech itself is an American invention and was picked up by ASML. That is why USA has the say in who gets it.

Re: TSMC to make advanced AI semiconductors in Japan

#154

Post by [deleted] »

mrtksn wrote: post #148
philipallstar wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Europe is already a great place to build your life Agreed. Its countries' long-standing equivalents of America First policies mean that they spend far more on their own citizens, import far fewer people, and leave most of the charitable, defence, and research spending to the US taxpayer. Good for them.

I kind of agree that "America First" policies tend to be Europeanization type policies and as a result quite un-American and that's also why USA will end up like Europe if it keeps course. Europe is great in many ways but lacks the dynamism exactly because of its highly controlled immigration policies instead of free market ones. Bureaucrats actually are terrible at picking who should come. A major example are the Tu…

[deleted]

Re: TSMC to make advanced AI semiconductors in Japan

#155

Post by jorvi »

joe_mamba wrote: post #57
jorvi wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

High-end chips should be more of a EU concerted effort rather than every country for itself. The problem is that unlike Airbus, which (highly inefficiently) can be made in multiple countries, you can't really spread out parts of a fab that way. The most you can do is fab machines + chips + chip packaging. Netherlands already has fab machines and in packaging there isn't a high margin. That leaves chips, and you can b…

>High-end chips should be more of a EU concerted effort rather than every country for itself. And how are we gonna do that exactly? EU runs on national interests of those footing the bill, mainly France and Germany as the largest net contributors. When you're relying on national subsidies to build and run a factory and adjacent infrastructure in a country, you're tied to national interests and demands of those countr…

> And how are we gonna do that exactly? EU runs on national interests of those footing the bill, mainly France and Germany as the largest net contributors.

The top net contributors are countries like Denmark, Sweden, The Netherlands, etc., I'm not sure where you get the idea that France and Germany are.

I will say you point out another big problem with the EU: its budget is tiny compared to the member states themselves. I do think as time goes on and millenials get in real positions of power, the idea of a more unified EU will get much broader support. So more of an EU army, much more of a single market, etc., but this will be a 25-50y timescale. I would have said it might have taken much longer, but the US and China bullying single EU countries has really displayed how exposed the current situation is.

> It's the same with arms purchases now. France blocked Ukraine from using its money to buy British made weapons that are already available, since it expects that money to go back into the French economy, not to the economy of a competitor, even if the much needed weapons will arrive much later.

> Yeah I know, UK isn't EU anymore, but the point still stands, as EU nations are still economically competitors to each other and they're not gonna spend their tax money to fund competing economies even in the EU block.

No, that is just reasonable. Theoretically I am all for open trade in the name of efficiency, but in the coming multi-polar world, there is real advantage to having more onshored production. This also really makes me want to integrate Ukraine into the EU. Their troops are very battle-hardened at this point, and would bring ample experience to EU armies. Especially in the field of drone warfare.

Re: TSMC to make advanced AI semiconductors in Japan

#156

Post by yieldcrv »

yanhangyhy wrote: post #18

Taiwanese politicians, like those under American-style democracy in many regions, only care about safeguarding their own interests and have no concern for how to protect the interests of the public. Once TSMC’s factories are completed in Japan and the United States and the technology is secured, Taiwan will no longer have any value worth protecting. Of course, the politicians can always take planes and leave in advan…

America selectively gets into conflicts worldwide to deter China from invading China

As soon as we get the right semiconductor supply chain stateside can switch up on that island and reach parity with the rest of the world’s contribution to that issue: none.

Re: TSMC to make advanced AI semiconductors in Japan

#157

Post by petesergeant »

decimalenough wrote: post #115
petesergeant wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you don’t think the US security apparatus will come up with a reasonable plan for doing just that within 2 months of it opening, I don’t think you’re thinking hard enough about this. > What are you going to do when none of the Taiwanese workers turn up for work, or worse they do turn up and sabotage the fab. You’re going to offer them a lot of money, citizenship, and exfiltration of their family to turn up at work…

> If you don’t think the US security apparatus will come up with a reasonable plan Have you seen the US security apparatus's track record at coming up with reasonable plans for what happens after the military victory? See Iraq, Afghanistan, etc.

I mean these things sit on opposite ends of the “organising a pissup in a brewery” to “teaching a fish to ride a bike” continuum.

Re: TSMC to make advanced AI semiconductors in Japan

#158

Post by alephnerd »

raincole wrote: post #78
i5heu wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is so absurd to think that an investment in even the most uncompetitive fab while one has currently none is uneconomical. Even if this fab is 3 times more expensive then other ones, the result of not having one will tank the entire economy and GDP of a nation if things go bad. We speak here about trillions of damage while a fab costs only a few billions. This is like a complete non brainer.

> Even if this fab is 3 times more expensive then other ones, the result of not having one will tank the entire economy and GDP of a nation if things go bad. That's hogwash. Sorry. Human society won't simply stop working just due to the lack of 2nm chips. There are plenty of chip manufacturers around the world, including EU ones. Taiwan only has the quasi-monopoly over the cutting edge process.

> Taiwan only has the quasi-monopoly over the cutting edge process

Not really. Taiwan has commanding market share in legacy process nodes (28nm and above) as well.

Re: TSMC to make advanced AI semiconductors in Japan

#159

Post by alephnerd »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #83
Herring wrote: post #28

China has many faults. Invading other countries is not one of them. They haven’t dropped bombs on foreign soil in over 40 years. The Chinese playbook here is to first copy then out-scale and out-innovate until eventually nobody remembers why Taiwan was so important.

> China has many faults. Invading other countries is not one of them Literally have ongoing border disputes with practically all of their neighbors, a few of which they’ve been shooting at (India) and ramming at sea (the Philippines) in the last few years.

Don't forget Vietnam. There's a reason the PLAVN has been buikding artificial islands on Truong Sa in order to build airstrips and deploying missile systems.

Re: TSMC to make advanced AI semiconductors in Japan

#160

Post by gjadi »

joe_mamba wrote: post #54
kyboren wrote: post #23

Japan and America have now both gotten TSMC to commit to a decent level of domestic advanced-node fabrication. Meanwhile Europe only got 40k WSPMs of 12+ nm capacity: https://overclock3d.net/news/software/bringing_advanced_semi...

>Meanwhile Europe only got 40k WSPMs of 12+ nm capacity EU leaders and VCs gave up on the electronics industry 20+ years ago and just kept offshoring it to the cheapest suppliers to lower costs and increase shareholder value. You can validate this by looking at which sectors pay the highest EU wages and you'll see that hardware and electronics are not in the top. And working in the electronics industry requires highl…

Not everyone is motivated by the highest wage they can get.

Good enough can be good enough and then aim for fun/interesting/challenging/fulfilling work instead of a fatter check.

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