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The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

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Re: The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

#151
post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I will avoid getting into a “who understands economics better” debate. But factory workers usually require specialized machinery, tooling, and physical capacity, which makes overhiring slower, harder and more constrained. Those investments force more deliberate planning. By contrast, engineers mostly require a laptop and company hoodie... That low marginal cost makes it far easier to hire aggressively on expectations…

Factory overhiring can happen easily by adding speculative 2nd and 3rd shifts. No need for extra equipment, tooling, or physical capacity. Lines with specialty equipment and tooling can also often be sped up. That can allow for other jobs to be added to all the functions that support the processes involved before and after the specialty equipment. New employees also often require training and some apprenticeship time…

There exists greater issues in hiring for manufacturing when it is for new shifts. Master level technicians and foremen willing to work those hours can be exceptionally difficult to find, and everything flows out of these people. While similar issues likely exist relating to discovering talent for software development, I speculate that the factory will, in practice, have a harder time finding people (for new shifts).

My experience with seeing new shifts added is initially with only specific processes, and even with those it is with journeyman level technicians running a small crew to support relieving a bottleneck in production.

Alternatively, manufacturers can outsource until they have enough volume to add a shift, but across the economy the net is just transferring production from one facility to another.

Re: The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

#152
post #39
post #31

Unfortunately, I think the next head of the fed is going to be appointed specifically to reduce interest rates, so we’re probably just going to go back to the 0-rate trough.

Quite likely. This will be great for growth. .. and terrible for inflation, but that can be blamed on other people.

I don't see how this can happen, tbh. Like, the chair is just one vote, and the regional Feds have almost a majority. Presumably, whoever gets the job will say they'll reduce interest rates, but I don't see how they can actually accomplish this without getting the rest of the Fed on board.

Re: The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

#153
post #109

I don't really understand what the author is arguing for here. Yes, tech companies (and everyone else) hired a ton of people when money was cheap, and now they are doing lay offs. I suppose the alternative would be employing people for life? Or that it should be costlier to fire people (ie like in Europe)? Also, if you are using AI to even write such a simple blog post, then perhaps corporations are indeed using it f…

The author never really argued for anything. He's just whining

Re: The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

#154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am really not debating whether over hiring is possible in factories. in tech cost of hiring is lower which makes headcount a much easier speculative bet and layoffs a much easier reset when the bet fails.

The 90th percentile of factory workers makes $45,000. The 90th percentile of software engineers makes $230,000. Hiring in tech is insanely expensive; I'm not familiar with hiring in factories, but it can't possibly have the supply problems that tech workers have. I do on average 115 interviews for every person I hire in tech.

That $45,000 factory worker is often operating a $1.5 million piece of equipment with $10-50,000/hr of materials going through it.

It's an entirely different cost structure.

Re: The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

#155

> The result is the worst of both worlds. European engineers now face US-level job insecurity with European-level compensation and limited mobility. Firing people in most of Europe is still not as easy as it is in the US. The opposite is also true, it's not that easy to leave your employer and you have to give 1/3/6 months notice before leaving, depending on your role/seniority/contract. Sometimes companies even make…

> This is just false, firing people in most of Europe is still not easy. Down sizing is a perfectly legal reason to fire people in Europe, and it happens all the time when big companies do mass firings. The difficult part is getting to choose which individuals to fire.

1. Most of Europe make it hard to do layoffs and most countries have different systems to prevent mass layoffs (including a state contribution to the salary, the Italian Cassa Integrazione is an example). Down sizing needs to demonstrate that you need real reasons for it, which implies demonstrating financial issues and lack of work and inability to reassign/retrain to different roles. Not easy.

2. American companies find every time that doing layoffs is very hard for them in Europe. Most recently Amazon, which, unable to lay off their people in Milan went through secondary tactics like demanding Return To Office (from people that signed hybrid or fully remote contracts) and other tactics involving mobbing or generous severance packages (up to 1 year in salary). Still, if the worker said no it was no.

Re: The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

#156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's the cost of a programmer-quality laptop, with two large monitors, plus licenses for all the software that they need? That's 2-3K. Does anyone know what the typical tool cost is for a factory worker? (And the tool cost for a factory worker can be zero if you're hiring for a second shift - they would use the same tools as the first shift, just at different times. In contrast, I don't think there are very many pl…

they even cut costs by leasing the computers...

I'd add that companies write off their equipment investment over a 3-5 year depreciation period. After that, when the laptops reach EOL, employees can often buy them through the company's EPP (employee purchase program) usually for just the fair market value, which might be a couple hundred € or sometimes even less.

So, eventually they recoup the equipment costs, wouldn't get surprised if they even make a profit out of it sometimes.

First thing they do, they write off VAT (20-23% of laptop price). Then at the EOL, they just set the EPP price to the higher market value. And return the cost.

Re: The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

#157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I will avoid getting into a “who understands economics better” debate. But factory workers usually require specialized machinery, tooling, and physical capacity, which makes overhiring slower, harder and more constrained. Those investments force more deliberate planning. By contrast, engineers mostly require a laptop and company hoodie... That low marginal cost makes it far easier to hire aggressively on expectations…

> By contrast, engineers mostly require a laptop and company hoodie. Alas, gone are the days when engineers too required specialized equipment like a desktop computer on the desk that you couldn't move with you. Every evening, you left it at office and went home to live a 100% home life. Alas, gone are those days.

Crunch time in those days sucked. I remember mandatory nights and weekends and the managers ordering in pizza for everyone.

Re: The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

#158
post #15

>In traditional industries like manufacturing you don’t hire 500 factory workers unless you have a production line that needs them. You don’t over-hire based on a guess. Traditional factories do make wrong guesses about the future and overhire all the time. Example: https://www.google.com/search?q=Ford+f150+lightning+laid+off...

The whole article rests on this false economic claim, that traditional industries don’t overhire based on expectations. They absolutely do, ALL THE TIME. Manufacturing, automotive, airlines, energy etc. all of them make demand bets and lay people off when those bets fail. Cheap money amplified this cycle, but this isn’t a tech specific "failure", it’s just how forecasting under uncertainty work. It’s incredible how s…

> It’s incredible how some engineers assume they understand economics

I would say most engineers. The reason is simple - basic economics is not taught in the public schools, and economics/business is not a required course for an engineering degree.

One of the best classes I ever took was a summer class in accounting.

Re: The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

#159
post #15

>In traditional industries like manufacturing you don’t hire 500 factory workers unless you have a production line that needs them. You don’t over-hire based on a guess. Traditional factories do make wrong guesses about the future and overhire all the time. Example: https://www.google.com/search?q=Ford+f150+lightning+laid+off...

The whole article rests on this false economic claim, that traditional industries don’t overhire based on expectations. They absolutely do, ALL THE TIME. Manufacturing, automotive, airlines, energy etc. all of them make demand bets and lay people off when those bets fail. Cheap money amplified this cycle, but this isn’t a tech specific "failure", it’s just how forecasting under uncertainty work. It’s incredible how s…

My take is that the traditional industries you mentioned (manufacturing, automotive, etc.) are making expectations on the market for what it is they're selling. With tech though, it makes expectations on markets that are brand new, or don't exist, and/or have no proven track record whatsoever.

And with that, VR would like to take the microphone and have a few words…

Re: The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

#160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I will avoid getting into a “who understands economics better” debate. But factory workers usually require specialized machinery, tooling, and physical capacity, which makes overhiring slower, harder and more constrained. Those investments force more deliberate planning. By contrast, engineers mostly require a laptop and company hoodie... That low marginal cost makes it far easier to hire aggressively on expectations…

> By contrast, engineers mostly require a laptop and company hoodie. Alas, gone are the days when engineers too required specialized equipment like a desktop computer on the desk that you couldn't move with you. Every evening, you left it at office and went home to live a 100% home life. Alas, gone are those days.

I was a contractor for a FAANG. My immediate cubicle neighbor liked to work out on lunch break, and to hang his sweaty, smelly gym things on the framework of his desk to air dry when he returned. I would've KILLED for a laptop I could take to the complimentary office café so I could get something done without holding my nose. If I were a full employee, I could just ask for one. Alas, as a mere contractor I was something less than a person, so I had to remain tethered to my desktop per company policy.
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