Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

jpmorgan.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

151–160 of 913 posts

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#151

Post by renewiltord »

touwer wrote: post #51

The US century is already over. It's just that a lot of US citizens don't see that. De-dollarization will happen when one is a traitor to it's allies

Indeed. People are actively trying to repair something which cannot be fixed. Now that the US century is over, the only way forward is for the US to use present military power as a cudgel.

Given that the multipolar world is nigh, the only path forward is through. If America and her erstwhile allies are no longer aligned, then any attempt by America to repair this is doomed. Consequently, Trump’s approach is the only way forward.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#152

Post by llmslave »

snovymgodym wrote: post #3

The international value of the dollar as a reserve and trade currency is inherently tied to the behavior of the US Government and the Federal Reserve. The behavior of the US Government has been very unusual lately, and the independence of the Federal Reserve is actively being challenged. So draw from that whatever conclusions you wish.

did you forget about all the money the fed printed during covid?

fed independence is important, but literally irrelevant in the face of rampant money printing

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#153

Post by tyuu »

IshKebab wrote: post #97
maerF0x0 wrote: post #88

China is intentionally undermining the dollar in order to try to make the Yuan the world currency[1,2,3]. My current hypothesis is that the growth in the _price_ of the US Stock market (eg S&P 500) is actually devaluation of the dollar. Compared to real money (Gold) the S&P500 is down over the past 10 years. [4] 1 - https://www.reddit.com/r/economy/comments/1o2s6qp/yuan_has_s... 2 - https://www.economist.com/china/20…

Gold is not "real money", come on.

That chart is also really weird. With log scale turned off and expanded to all time...

https://www.macrotrends.net/1437/sp500-to-gold-ratio-chart

Makes it look like the US peaked at Sep 2000 and has been downhill ever since. Doesn't track at all with GDP which has almost doubled since 2000. I.e. it doesn't track with growth, but does track with dollar index somewhat, which makes sense because it's tracking a dollar value intermediate when considering "how much gold it takes to buy S&P 500", which means it really ends up tracking something else entirely.

> Compared to real money (Gold) the S&P500 is down over the past 10 years. [4]

Isn't this the real chart to look at for that? Completely different story when you select max on the timeline.

https://www.perplexity.ai/finance/%5EGSPC?comparing=GCUSD

Personally I am about $10M USD poorer for listening to people on the internet. I wish people would not spread falsities about finance that can actually ruin lives. (Albeit to be fair, the trend is towards conservative advice...my life was uniquely affected in terms of limiting upside, so I am at least grateful that most online posts work very hard to limit downside.)

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#154

Post by wasabi991011 »

maerF0x0 wrote: post #88

China is intentionally undermining the dollar in order to try to make the Yuan the world currency[1,2,3]. My current hypothesis is that the growth in the _price_ of the US Stock market (eg S&P 500) is actually devaluation of the dollar. Compared to real money (Gold) the S&P500 is down over the past 10 years. [4] 1 - https://www.reddit.com/r/economy/comments/1o2s6qp/yuan_has_s... 2 - https://www.economist.com/china/20…

> Compared to real money (Gold) the S&P500 is down over the past 10 years. [4]

There's such large fluctuations though, especially compared to the S&P 500 in USD [5] or even TFA's USD shares of FX reserves.

[5] https://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500-historical-chart-dat...

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#155

Post by realo »

shawabawa3 wrote: post #82
calvinmorrison wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe unsaid but the idea that Congress can create an organization that is not executed by the executive is the issue

Isn't that the entire point of congress? Otherwise why not just have an all powerful president and do away with the houses

Just wait for next year under the current administration ...

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#156

Post by jollyllama »

hnburnsy wrote: post #77

For those who are not bothering to read this,the article essentially states that de-dollarization is happening in pockets (e.g., reserves down to ~58-60%, Treasuries foreign ownership at 30%), but the dollar's core dominance persists. What would replace it? I guess the options are Yuan, Gold, Oil or maybe BRICS in the future, none of which are safe, stable, and liquid.

Nothing. The Dollar is antifragile. The worse it gets, the more entrenched it becomes. [0]

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gresham%27s_law

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#157

Post by maerF0x0 »

therobots927 wrote: post #144
BowBun wrote: post #86

Just last week, I was accused on HN of "not knowing what I'm talking about" when sharing data showing, and my interpretation of, a declining US dollar globally. It is so obvious in the context of globalization: countries seeking power will chip away at fiscal dominance of others with a thousand cuts. Why wouldn't they? Especially after years of getting bullied. So many people are so dependent on this reality that I t…

Similarly I was downvoted for pointing out that the developed markets index returns (30%) doubled US market returns (15%) over the last year. Simultaneously the value of the dollar has dropped 10%. I simply stated that we’re seeing capital flight from the US. Ray Dalio said the same thing this morning.

And if you look at pricing as a proxy for capital flows, SMMD which is Russell 3000 minus S&P500 has had a heck of a run in 3 months. IMO People are retreating the mag7

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#158

Post by throwaway5752 »

einpoklum wrote: post #132
throwaway5752 wrote: post #31

Yes, of fucking course it is. The US elected a convicted con artist who is incontrovertibly violating human rights law, breaking treaties with allies, militarily threatening neighbors, and in general making a global outcast of themselves. The US is making an absolute mockery over the honor and responsibility granted to in the post-WW2 world. It has sophisticated rivals that are predictably and effectively making use…

> The US is making an absolute mockery over the honor and responsibility etc. The US was a rather empire without many scruples before WW2 and after it. It engaged in genocide in Vietnam, and was complicit in several others, including the ongoing one in Gaza - which was sanctioned, funded and facilitated first and foremost by the Biden-Harris administration. So, without detracting from Trump's crimes and jingoist rhet…

I'm afraid I completely disagree with you and am not interested in arguing further than this.

Vietnam, Korea, Iraq, Gaza, and so many others are atrocities but they are well understood by anyone with a casual understanding of 20th century geopolitics.

Anything you could list is awful but still respected the norms and rules that exist between nation states. There is not a high bar for these things, but some people within a specific flavor of the Republican party reject these rules and norms. By a quirk of history they were able to gain power. I could describe this in more technical and impressive sounding language, but "FAFO, and we are in the find-out stage" goes by many names and is accurate.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#159

Post by selectodude »

parsimo2010 wrote: post #138
softwaredoug wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not just that This is a gradual decline. From 70% in the 90s to 60% today. Today there are more options like the Euro that didn’t exist in the 90s. People can argue over EU economic stability, but it’s there as reasonable option.

As time goes on, fewer people are alive that predate the EU and more people will perceive it as a lasting institution. Additionally, we've now seen the EU survive the departure of a major economic power (the UK). More people are certainly willing to believe in the stability of the EU now. Another major currency is the Yuan, and some countries may be as willing to trade in Yuan to improve relations with China, so perh…

The major benefit of the US Dollar is that you can do things with it. Between export controls, currency controls, laws on foreign ownership, etc, china can pay me all the RMB in the world. I still can’t do a whole lot with it.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#160

Post by lvl155 »

Up until about a month ago, I’d have argued it’s overblown. However, I think this time it’s a real possibility and perhaps even certain. This country is absolutely going down the toilet and China is using this opportunity to strengthen its position. Things will get far worse as the economy rolls over this year and AI bubble pops. It’s a perfect storm.
Post reply on HN