I actually think Trump is going to lose big soon. One turning point was the death of Renee Good. Past this point the ICE stormtroopers may kill anyone else too, no matter who that is - just step in front of a car and shoot when the car moves. For serious penalty, all those TechBro cronies need to have all assets seized. They are imcompatible with democracy.
There’s no solidarity movement coalescing around Good’s death. When the local police chief invoked “say her name” in a public statement on it, it caused a bunch of acrimony and resentment instead. I think Americans past the point where individual instances of police violence can shock us into taking political action (which is extremely risky in any case). It’s going to take kilodeath crimes, I imagine.
American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis
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Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis
#152If you look at the decline in the Chinese producer price index, it doesn't seem like that is accurate.
Otherwise "broad" producer price index down primarily due to coal prices getting creamed by renewables, also cheap RU gas. When fossil/input prices drop, PRC PPI always drops. Industrial profit index for manufacturing sectors up 5-10%. Note broad industrial profit index down because it heavily weights state owned / SEO fossil sectors (aforementioned coal+oil dropped by 20-40%). Decompose industrial profits and story is PRC manufactures getting cheap energy and cheap inputs while growing profits more than they lower prices, aka why PRC winning trade game in the first place.
Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis
#153Isn't this literally economics 101? How did we ever even end up imagining that tariffs are somehow paid by the exporter??
I suspect tens of millions of Americans believe whatever they are told by their trusted "news" source. My only basis is anecdotal though, a dozen or so "maga/trump no matter what" family members and people I grew up with are mostly believing the tariffs are something other countries are paying the US.
It’s true on its surface - most people don’t know about economics, across all political spectrums, and so rely on leaders (which I thought is what liberalism advocates for?).
It’s not a helpful model if you want to understand what’s going on. So then the interesting parts to explore are the reasons they want to believe it, and the reasons given by the educated economists who also support the position
Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis
#154Isn't this literally economics 101? How did we ever even end up imagining that tariffs are somehow paid by the exporter??
Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis
#155I'm glad they've done the work here and put a figure on it - the impact absolutely needed to be quantified - but I also have to say... to the surprise of absolutely no-one with even the most basic grasp of how economies function. People, lots of people, lots of people who have a really deep understanding of national and global economics (unlike me), have been warning about this since talk of tariffs became common cur…
I'm not American but I don't think tariffs were mentioned in Trump's campaign? It was more the 'stick it to the liberals' and 'drain the swamp' stuff. He only started that tariff stuff when he took office. Edit: Clearly I was not following things well enough, sorry for the wrong information.
Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis
#156I'm glad they've done the work here and put a figure on it - the impact absolutely needed to be quantified - but I also have to say... to the surprise of absolutely no-one with even the most basic grasp of how economies function. People, lots of people, lots of people who have a really deep understanding of national and global economics (unlike me), have been warning about this since talk of tariffs became common cur…
Tariffs make foreign imports more expensive. This dissuades people from buying them. Some of those people will instead buy equivalent American made products, now that the price difference has lessened. I consider that a good thing. There will be pain while local manufacturing ramps up (or forever, if it never does) for products that have no domestic equivalent. That sucks, but sometimes things need to suck before they improve. Paying off the national debt, for example, is something I support, even if we have to slash a lot of useful spending for awhile. I think most rational Republicans are voting for these sorts of things despite knowing they will make things temporarily worse, in the hopes of an eventual better. The left tends to never do this, for they are very attuned to the immediate suffering their plans cause. The right tends to be less sensitive to the short term suffering their plans cause; the right thinks that the alternative, a slow decline, is worth the pain to avoid. Trump has bungled the implementation of the tariffs, but I still support their use in general.
Fundamentally it makes no sense to me to support a minimum wage for your countrymen, but also support them importing massive amounts of slave made goods. You are creating rules on the supply side that the demand side does not have to follow, which only harms your own domestic businesses. Your own country's businesses have to compete against slave labor while paying living wages; for most manufacturing this is just not possible. You are incentivizing off shoring, which harms your working class, who have to compete with subminimum wage workers. Workers rights must be paired with tariffs, or every additional worker right is a demerit on his hireability against foreign workers without those rights! If you want your country to produce anything, and to have a strong working class, you either remove minimum wage, or you implement tariffs. We cannot simultaneously support strong domestic workers rights and mass importation of sweatshop goods that were made without them. It hollows out the country.
Edit: I am rate limited though I would like to reply to some of my interlocutors. I will reply later.
Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis
#157Earlier quoted context omitted.
A lot of Americans believed the guy they wanted to believe in, because they didn't want to believe the people they didn't want to believe in. You're assuming that modern politics across most of the World has something to do with rational, logical thought. Russia, China, Europe, the US, the Middle East - they are all in a quagmire of irrational fractures between the public and the political classes who want power/cont…
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That said, I don't believe there's a single factor that determined the election. A flip in any of a dozen or more factors could have resulted in a different outcome.
Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis
#158Isn't this literally economics 101? How did we ever even end up imagining that tariffs are somehow paid by the exporter??
I understood part of the point of the tariffs as encouraging on-shore production of some items by increasing the price of their imported counterparts. Such protectionist practices were used by China to bootstrap their own automobile industry, before they became competitive in the global market. Of course, China had surplus capacity of untapped cheap labor, which America does not. Barring an evolution in automated man…
First you subsidize and support the creation of currently not commercially viable chip fabs on-shore. Literally handing companies money under some obligation into the future.
Eventually the on-shore chips are produced, but they have higher total cost of ownership for the users: Logistics may be cheaper due to less distance, or more expensive because they are not well-trodden paths yet. Production costs like labor, water, energy could be higher. And the chips could just have higher failure rate, because problems in the new processes need to be kinked out.
But to get local consumers to switch to these switches, one applies tariffs to other sources of chips so the on-shore chips become more competitive artificially, until they become actually cheaper and competitive.
The way it is threatened here isn't in the use case of tariffs at all from my limited understanding.
Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis
#159Americans will rightly be suspicious when a think tank in Germany writes about tariff relief that benefits them. Of course, we should all be critical always – that's the first word in the term "critical thinking".
Your comment serves nothing but to suggest anew that Americans _should_ be suspicious. Either that was your aim to begin with or you’re okay with that result.