151–160 of 517 posts
Why is polymarket any more or less dangerous than NFTs or naked option trading? Fool and his money are quickly separated…
But if you write uncovered options, your losses are theoretically unlimited.
Agreed, though. It's bizarre that this isn't regulated exactly like gambling. Because... that's what it is.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
What's the point of posting entire book fragments here?
So that lazy people who form their worldview via a Quick Google Search, Wikipedia articles, and/or "news media" can actually have a chance to learn something real about the time they are living in. It's like a dozen paragraphs, forming one complete argument. Is this too much material to take in all at once, in this brave new TLDR tomorrow?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
The powers that be have always saught wealth. At some point they gained enough power to start usurping the law that was supposed to keep them in check.
We should have made it clearer that monied interests have a choice: be kept in check by the law, or by the guillotine.
What is the legality for US residents? Right now Polymarket is subject to a federal agreement that they don't let US people participate. Apparently this is just a checkbox for the user to attest to. They don't even do IP geolocation, never mind payment checks. So it's currently illegal for them to run this in the US. But is it illegal for users to participate?
They do check geolocation on order submit. You can read the site from anywhere, though.
What is the legality for US residents? Right now Polymarket is subject to a federal agreement that they don't let US people participate. Apparently this is just a checkbox for the user to attest to. They don't even do IP geolocation, never mind payment checks. So it's currently illegal for them to run this in the US. But is it illegal for users to participate?
> Right now Polymarket is subject to a federal agreement that they don't let US people participate. This changed last month.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
"The mercantile classes at first thought themselves exempt from the general misfortune. They were delighted at the apparent advance in the value of the goods upon their shelves. But they soon found that, as they increased prices to cover the inflation of currency and the risk from fluctuation and uncertainty, purchases became less in amount and payments less sure; a feeling of insecurity spread throughout the country…
Please don't make posts consisting of quotes and nothing else. HN is a supposed to be a site for curious conversation. It's not hard to see how posts like this interrupt that and bog it down - imagine someone at a dinner party* reading entire paragraphs like this out loud. (* I don't know why I said "dinner party", since I don't go to those, the conversation usually isn't good, and they aren't my idea of fun, but oh…
In theory, insiders give correct signal. But in practice, their volume is often too low to meaningfully move the market in the correct direction, and the timing of their order flow can be too late for that signal to actually be useful as a tool for predicting the future.
Its also critical to note that insider trading laws don't just exist to protect investors. They exist to protect the organizations the insiders belong to. The order flow on both prediction markets and the stock market is public information. Its one thing to short the company you work at because you know they're going to announce bad earnings. Its another thing entirely to take out a million-dollar position on "US Strikes Venezuela before Jan 3: Yes" on January 2nd. Sophisticated geopolitical opponents are monitoring these order flow feeds, and it begins to become a genuine matter of national security.
Overall, I am fine with prediction markets. I think they're an improvement over sports betting in the sense that they better-align incentives between the participants and the market-maker. In typical sports betting, the casinos running them set the odds, and participants take out positions against the casino; which means the casinos are incentivized against allowing anyone to actually make money on their platforms. This has surfaced many times in "professional sports betters" getting blacklisted. In comparison, PMs are a contract between participants, and the market-maker only takes a fee on each transaction (Robinhood's is 2.5%; quite high), which means the market-maker is only incentivized to increase PM order book volume and provide interesting markets. There's more opportunity for actual skill and dedication to shine through.
But, KYC is critical.
> The irony of prediction markets is that they are supposed to be a more trustworthy way of gleaning the future than internet clickbait and half-baked punditry, but they risk shredding whatever shared trust we still have left. The suspiciously well-timed bets that one Polymarket user placed right before the capture of Nicolás Maduro may have been just a stroke of phenomenal luck that netted a roughly $400,000 payout.…
Except the paragraph you quoted nullify this benefit
> The suspiciously well-timed bets that one Polymarket user placed right before the capture of Nicolás Maduro
So we learnt nothing. For the entire duration the stock is online, its pretty much 50/50 then suddenly 1 day before, the ticker spikes to yes.
What is the legality for US residents? Right now Polymarket is subject to a federal agreement that they don't let US people participate. Apparently this is just a checkbox for the user to attest to. They don't even do IP geolocation, never mind payment checks. So it's currently illegal for them to run this in the US. But is it illegal for users to participate?
I don't think this convoluted setup is enough to avoid US gambling laws, but it is important to keep in mind how it actually works.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
So that lazy people who form their worldview via a Quick Google Search, Wikipedia articles, and/or "news media" can actually have a chance to learn something real about the time they are living in. It's like a dozen paragraphs, forming one complete argument. Is this too much material to take in all at once, in this brave new TLDR tomorrow?
I don't come here to read lengthy quotes from random authors. I come here for discussion and interesting viewpoints from our community. Posting a lengthy quote is low-effort; more valuable would be to write up your take on it in your own words, and, if you want, link to the original source material that you would have otherwise quoted.