Live data from Hacker News

Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

culpium.com

151–160 of 501 posts

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You know posh schools teach people to write with em dashes too, right?

Not to use them excessively. Good human writing has variety and style. AI articles are the same boring template, doesn't matter if it's emdash or not.

A lot of people don't actually learn good writing at their fancy schools - but they do they learn the stylistic quirks that signal one went to the fancy school.

How do you think it got in the LLM training set in the first place?

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#152
post #64
post #61

I'm surprised that Apple is not considering opening up its own fabs. Tim Cook is all about vertical-integration and they have a mountain of cash that they could use to fund the initial startup capex.

Semiconductor manufacturing is not an incremental step for Apple. It's an entirely new kind of vertical. They do not have the resources to do this. If they could they would have by now.

They could buy global foundaries and pour in a pile of cash, 5 years later they’d have something useful

Or they could buy out Intel and sell off their cpu design division

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#153
post #92

This article repeatedly cites revenue growth numbers as an indicator of Nvidia and Apple’s relative health, which is a very particular way of looking at things. By way of another one, Apple had $416Bn in revenue, which was a 6% increase from the prior year, or about $25Bn, or about all of Nvidia’s revenue in 2023. Apple’s had slow growth in the last 4 years following a big bump during the early pandemic; their 5 year…

US tech companies aren’t built to be like 3M is/was and able to have their hands in infinite pies. The giant conglomerates in Asia seem more able to do it. Google has somewhat tried but then famously kills most everything even things that could be successful if smaller businesses.

Yeah, it is insane what areas and products companies like Mitsubishi, Samsung, IHI or even Suntory are involved in.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With current AI pricing for silicon, I think the math’s gone out the window. For Apple, they have binning flexibility, with Pro/Max/Ultra, all the way down to iPads - and that’s after the node yields have been improved via the gazillion iPhone SoC dies. NVIDIAs flexibility came from using some of those binned dies for GeForce cards, but the VRAM situation is clearly making that less important, as they’re cutting some…

Datacenter GPU dies cannot be binned for Geforce because they lack fixed function graphics features. Raytracing acceleration in particular must be non-trivial area that you wouldn't want to spend on a datacenter die. Not to mention the data fabric is probably pretty different.

I’m not saying their binning between data center and 3060s, but within gaming and between gaming and RTX Pro cards, there’s binning.

As you cut SMs from a die you move from the 3090 down the stack, for instance. That’s yield management right there.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#155

Sneak preview of the TSMC shortage that will sweep the world in 2027 when China takes Taiwan and the TSMC scuttles their chip fabs on the island. I don’t know the hedge to position against this but I’m pretty sure China will make good on its promise.

Alternatively, China could make progress fabricating and exporting its own chips and designing its own GPUs. The entire chip sector could go the way of solar panels and EVs with prices dropping and margins collapsing to near zero.

Yup, they're also like 5-10 years out from their own lithography machines as well. China wanted Taiwan before TSMC was a thing, by the time they take Taiwan back they won't need TSMC.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#156

I find that my cell phone which is 4 generations old and my desktop computer which is 2 generations old are totally adequate for everything I need to do, and I do not need faster processing

But do you use any ai services like chat gpt, Claude, Gemini? If so you’re offloading your compute from a local stack to a high performance nvidia gpu stack operated by one of the big five. It’s not that you aren’t using new hardware, it’s that you shifted the load from local to centralized. I’m not saying this is bad or anything, it’s just another iteration of the centralized vs decentralized pendulum swing that has…

> Imagine you could run a stack of Mac minis that replaced your monthly Claude code bill. Might pay for itself in 6mo (this doesn’t exist yet but it theoretically could happen)

You don't have to imagine. You can, today, with a few (major) caveats: you'll only match Claude from roughly ~6 months ago (open-weight models roughly lag behind the frontier by ~half a year), and you'd need to buy a couple of RTX 6000 Pros (each one is ~$10k).

Technically you could also do this with Macs (due to their unified RAM), but the speed won't be great so it'd be unusable.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#157

Taiwan's TSMC foundries are their nuclear currency: they must keep them to remain protected by others, and yet the others didn't completely build interchangeable and resilient capacity elsewhere to do what essential for them that they had the money to do. So now Apple, Nvidia, AMD (possibly), and most car manufacturers will be up a creek without a paddle when China invades in 1-2 years. That is unless China's Xi is b…

[deleted]

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#158
post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With current AI pricing for silicon, I think the math’s gone out the window. For Apple, they have binning flexibility, with Pro/Max/Ultra, all the way down to iPads - and that’s after the node yields have been improved via the gazillion iPhone SoC dies. NVIDIAs flexibility came from using some of those binned dies for GeForce cards, but the VRAM situation is clearly making that less important, as they’re cutting some…

> For Apple, they have binning flexibility, with Pro/Max/Ultra, all the way down to iPads The Pro and Max chips are different dies , and the Ultra currently isn't even the same generation as the Max. And the iPads have never used any of those larger dies. > NVIDIAs flexibility came from using some of those binned dies for GeForce cards NVIDIA's datacenter chips don't even have display outputs, and have little to no f…

They’re binning within those product lines - both NVIDIA and Apple.

Not binning an M4 Max for an iPhone, but an M4 Pro with a few GPU or CPU cores disabled is clearly a thing.

Same for NVIDIA. The 4080 is a 4090 die with some SMs disabled.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#159
post #139

As a heavy user of OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google AI APIs, I’m increasingly tempted to buy a Mac Studio (M3 Ultra or M4 Pro) as a contingency in case the economics of hosted inference change significantly.

If theres a market crash, there could be a load cheap H100s hitting ebay

You can't run those at home.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#160
post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So let's say TMSC reciprocated Apple's consistency as a customer by giving them preferential treatment for capacity. It's good business after all. However, everyone knows that good faith reciprocity at that scale is not rewarded. Apple is ruthless. There are probably thousands of untold stories of how hard Apple has hammered it's suppliers over the years. While Apple has good consumer brand loyalty, they arguably tre…

> they arguably treat their suppliers relatively poorly compared to the Gold standard like Costco. I’m not saying you’re wrong but you’re previous paragraph sounding like you were wondering if it was the case vs. here you’re saying it’s known. Is this all true? Do they have a reputation for hammering their suppliers?

Apple is so notoriously ravenous for profit margin that they can’t not be that way.
Post reply on HN