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Iran has now been offline for 96 hours

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Re: Iran has now been offline for 96 hours

#151

Post by Aloisius »

pazimzadeh wrote: post #148
Aloisius wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Iran's currency collapsed. That generally requires more than platitudes and token reform to recover from.

Agreed, I’m saying the regime will pass reforms (or try to, given sanctions). I would love for the end of the regime, but who tell me who will take its place? Realistic best case scenario right now is a situation like England where there is technically a monarch (who also heads the church) but they practically hold no power (less and less over time).

We're seeing what looks to be a full blown economic collapse. People don't have money to buy food right now.

I don't see what reforms they could implement that can quickly fix this as they need to radically alter trust in the government for currency reforms to work.

But who knows? Maybe they'll muddy their way through or rely on force to stay in power. Certainly large protests have happened before, but this is the first time in decades where all 5 conditions of a successful revolution are present at the same time.

Re: Iran has now been offline for 96 hours

#152

Post by bpt3 »

submeta wrote: post #103
bpt3 wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's being downvoted because it's mostly nonsense based on what I'm aware of. Please enlighten us with some of this easily verifiable information.

[flagged]

"Western governments do not want democracy in Iran" is not the same statement as "Western policy toward Iran basically boils down to: we're fine with democracy, just not if it threatens US/Israeli regional dominance" and neither are supported by citations describing what happened in the 1950s.

Re: Iran has now been offline for 96 hours

#153

Post by bpt3 »

lbrito wrote: post #143
bpt3 wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let's step through these one by one: > Western governments do not want democracy in Iran. This is purely speculation, and is not generally true based on statements from Western governments. What I would say is that Western governments want stability in Iran, just like virtually every other nation. If the current leaders in Iran were not sponsoring terrorists across the world, weren't actively pursuing the most danger…

>not generally true based on statements from Western governments. Its wild that someone can say this with a straight face. >What I would say is that Western governments want stability in Iran, just like virtually every other nation. While "stability" is being generous, this is more or less true. Western governments want whatever form of government is most beneficial to them, which usually implies some form of "stabil…

The logical leaps you make are comically large.

Just as one example, how does "Iranians across the country are chanting slogans in support of Reza Pahlavi" demonstrate that Western nations want him in power?

And did you miss this in that article: "Few analysts think Pahlavi has a real path to the throne or leadership in Iran."

Re: Iran has now been offline for 96 hours

#154

Post by zappb »

Cyph0n wrote: post #99
flyinglizard wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Israel has had nukes since the 1960’s, and has been wiping the floor with its adversaries since before even that. What changed now that would push Saudi Arabia and Turkey to get nukes? Nothing really. On the contrary: it is Turkey that’s projecting power in Syria, Libya and Somalia, and likewise Saudi Arabia projecting power in Yemen. Israel’s war on Iran was an important piece in the way to the collapse of the regim…

Disagree with almost everything you said; too lazy to have an extended back and forth. Let’s follow up in a few months and see who was right.

[flagged]

Re: Iran has now been offline for 96 hours

#155

Post by rootusrootus »

swat535 wrote: post #111
EA-3167 wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People love to remember the hits and forget the misses. They'll happily chat about how "hunger was the key to the French Revolution" while forgetting how many starved in the USSR, North Korea, China, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Somalia, etc... They love to imagine that the suffering of a populace is some guarantee of both a revolution and the success of that revolution. For some reason the near-total destruction of Syria and…

Iranian here (speaking from outside), fair but you have to consider the circumstances. The regime currently is in its weakest position. Russia is busy with Ukraine, many of top IRGC commanders assassinated, HAMAS is in disarray, and their nuclear program has been crippled. The water shortage was the straw that broke the camel's back. Years of sanctions, economical downturn and abuses by the Regime piled up to the poi…

It does seem like there is a point -- and running out of water would be up there near that point, in addition to a collapse of the economy, where people get motivated to make change happen even at the risk to their own lives. I mean, you are going to die anyway, right?

I say that from the luxury of my very safe keyboard, of course. I hope your family is staying as safe as possible. Can't imagine the stress (I get tangled up enough in our own US gov't shenanigans and that pales in comparison to Iran right now).

Re: Iran has now been offline for 96 hours

#156

Post by rootusrootus »

Aloisius wrote: post #151
pazimzadeh wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed, I’m saying the regime will pass reforms (or try to, given sanctions). I would love for the end of the regime, but who tell me who will take its place? Realistic best case scenario right now is a situation like England where there is technically a monarch (who also heads the church) but they practically hold no power (less and less over time).

We're seeing what looks to be a full blown economic collapse. People don't have money to buy food right now. I don't see what reforms they could implement that can quickly fix this as they need to radically alter trust in the government for currency reforms to work. But who knows? Maybe they'll muddy their way through or rely on force to stay in power. Certainly large protests have happened before, but this is the fi…

> all 5 conditions of a successful revolution

I'm not too bright, could you point me in the direction of understanding what those five conditions are?

Re: Iran has now been offline for 96 hours

#157

Post by burnt-resistor »

FergusArgyll wrote: post #110
burnt-resistor wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And doesn't become another neoliberal, corrupt vassal state beholden to the IMF.

Yeah, that sounds absolutely awful compared to what it's like to live in Iran now

False choice. Both are bad.

Re: Iran has now been offline for 96 hours

#158

Post by burnt-resistor »

Aloisius wrote: post #149
burnt-resistor wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And doesn't become another neoliberal, corrupt vassal state beholden to the IMF.

The IMF is essentially a credit union with 191 member countries, so they'd become a vassal to most of the world - if by vassal, one means to agree to terms that might make it possible to repay loans. Some (including quite a few neoliberals) want to abolish the IMF altogether, though I'm unsure if letting countries collapse completely is really a better option.

Lies. IMF isn't a charity. They come in and dictate policy and make money off misfortune. It's disaster capitalism.

Edit: See also. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Shock_Doctrine

Re: Iran has now been offline for 96 hours

#159

Post by tptacek »

Sabinus wrote: post #140
tptacek wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't doubt this is true but would also note that high-profile online outlets --- Ryan Grim's Drop Site News, most notably --- have run pieces talking about how huge anti-government protests are in fact pro-government protests, when that has turned out to be flatly false. (I don't know where they get this stuff). The Iranian anti-regime movement is very well established and is not the product of foreign interventio…

Ryan Grim isn't exactly a stellar journalist.

I don't like him but I'm literally asking: where did that assertion come from.

Re: Iran has now been offline for 96 hours

#160

Post by Aloisius »

burnt-resistor wrote: post #158
Aloisius wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The IMF is essentially a credit union with 191 member countries, so they'd become a vassal to most of the world - if by vassal, one means to agree to terms that might make it possible to repay loans. Some (including quite a few neoliberals) want to abolish the IMF altogether, though I'm unsure if letting countries collapse completely is really a better option.

Lies. IMF isn't a charity. They come in and dictate policy and make money off misfortune. It's disaster capitalism. Edit: See also. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Shock_Doctrine

I did not say it was a charity.
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