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The rise of industrial software

chrisloy.dev

151–160 of 201 posts

Re: The rise of industrial software

#151

One thing that has become clearer to me over the years is that reasoning by analogy (like this article does) sounds a lot smarter than it is. If you look from first principles, it's clear that physical goods and software don't share the same properties and thus the analogy falls apart. Physical goods like clothes or cars have variable costs . The marginal unit always costs > 0, and thus the price to the consumer is a…

Digital goods do have a marginal cost. It's a lot lower than with physical goods, but there is a cost: at the very minimum, a digital good takes up storage space. A streamed digital good requires bandwidth and electricity (and in most of the world, both are metered resources).

Also, most consumers don't choose on quality; they choose on price. This is why free mobile games became huge and paid mobile games are a dying breed. In the physical world, it's why shein and alibaba nearly became trillion-dollar companies.

Re: The rise of industrial software

#152
post #55
post #47

This essay, like so many others, mistakes the task of "building" software with the task of "writing" software. Anyone in the world can already get cheap, mass-produced software to do almost anything they want their computer to do. Compilers spit out new build of any program on demand within seconds, and you can usually get both source code and pre-compiled copies over the internet. The "industrial process" (as TFA pu…

You're getting caught up on the technical meaning of terms rather than what the author actually wrote. Theyre explicitly saying that most software will no longer be artisianal - a great literary novel - and instead become industrialized - mass produced paperback garbage books. But also saying that good software, like literature, will continue to exist.

What he's missing is that there's always been a market for custom-built software by non-professionals. For instance, spreadsheets. Back in the 1970s engineers and accountants and people like that wrote simple programs for programmable calculators. Today it's Python.

The most radical development in software tools I think, would be more tools for non-professional programmers to program small tools that put their skills on wheels. I did a lot of biz dev around something that encompassed "low code/no code" but a revolution there involves smoothing out 5-10 obstacles with a definite Ashby character that if you fool yourself that you can get away with ignoring the last 2 required requirements you get just another Wix that people will laugh at. For now, AI coding doesn't have that much to offer the non-professional programmer because a person without insight into the structure of programs, project management and a sense of what quality means will go in circles at best.

I think the thinking in the article is completely backwards about the economics. I mean, the point of software is you can write it once and the cost to deploy a billion units is trivial in comparison. Sure, AI slop can put the "crap" in "app" but if you have any sense you don't go cruising the app store for trash but find out about best-of-breed products or products that are the thin edge of a long wedge (like the McDonald's app which is valuable because it has all the stores baacking it)

Re: The rise of industrial software

#153
post #93
post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're getting caught up on the technical meaning of terms rather than what the author actually wrote. Theyre explicitly saying that most software will no longer be artisianal - a great literary novel - and instead become industrialized - mass produced paperback garbage books. But also saying that good software, like literature, will continue to exist.

Yes, I read the article. I still think it's incorrect. Most software (especially by usage) is already not artisanal. You get the exact same browser, database server and (whatsapp/signal/telegram/whatever) messenger client as basically everyone else. Those are churned out by the millions from a common blueprint and designed by teams and teams of highly skilled specialists using specialized tooling, not so different fr…

  > You get the exact same browser, database server and (whatsapp/signal/telegram/whatever) messenger client as basically everyone else.
Hey! I'm going to passionately defend my choice over a really minor difference. I mean do you see how that app does their hamburger menu?! It makes the app utterly unusable!

Maybe I'm exaggerating here but I've heard things pretty close in "chrome vs Firefox" and "signal vs ..." threads. People are really passionate about tiny details. Or at least they think that's that they're passionate about.

Unfortunately I think what they don't realize is that passion often hinders that revolutionary progress you speak of. It just creates entrenched players and monopolies in domains where it should be near trivial to move (browsers are definitely trivial to jump ship)

Re: The rise of industrial software

#154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>They’re not all going to get their own boat and captain hat Why not? Anyone can load up Claude code and start trial and erroring until they get something that works and has similar reliability to accepted software … what is the stat about 1 bug per 10 lines of code on average? I am meeting a lot of non coders telling me about their projects they are getting AI to do for them, stuff to help land title something or ot…

Anyone can load up Claude code and start trial and erroring until they get something that works and has similar reliability to accepted software.. You still need to understand the code that AI is generating to fix the problems that you can't vibe a solution to. You still need to understand the process of developing software to know when something isn't working even if it looks like it is . You still need other people…

Everybody learned somehow. I wonder what % of programmers actually have relevant training and education in programming vs just taught themselves with online resources.

Maybe the amateurs aren’t going to be writing a new distributed database but CRUD apps must be easier than ever

Re: The rise of industrial software

#155
In the Will traditional software survive? section the author describes "Boutique-sofware" as the low-value high-cost software [1]. However, the examples in the following paragraphs are quite contrary to that statement.

- Tailored suit: This is a high-cost and high-value thing. Both quality and fit are much better than fast-fashion.

In the similar sense, maybe LLMs will produce the frameworks or libraries in the future. Akin to the "fabric" used by the tailors. But at the end, craftsmen or women are the ones architecting and stitching these together.

Verbatim [1]:

    > Will traditional software survive?
    > Ultraprocessed foods are, of course, not the only game in town. There is a thriving and growing demand for healthy, sustainable production of foodstuffs, largely in response to the harmful effects of industrialisation. Is it possible that software might also resist mechanisation through the growth of an “organic software” movement? If we look at other sectors, we see that even those with the highest levels of industrialisation also still benefit from small-scale, human-led production as part of the spectrum of output.
    > For example, prior to industrialisation, clothing was largely produced by specialised artisans, often coordinated through guilds and manual labour, with resources gathered locally, and the expertise for creating durable fabrics accumulated over years, and frequently passed down in family lines. Industrialisation changed that completely, with raw materials being shipped intercontinentally, fabrics mass produced in factories, clothes assembled by machinery, all leading to today’s world of fast, disposable, exploitative fashion. And yet handcrafted clothes still exist: from tailored suits to knitted scarves, a place still exists for small-scale, slow production of textile goods, for reasons ranging from customisation of fit, signalling of wealth, durability of product, up to enjoyment of the craft as a pastime.

Re: The rise of industrial software

#156
post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> you still needed the captain driving the ship. The question is more what becomes of all the rowers when you’re switching from captain + 100 rowers to captain + steam engine They’re not all going to get their own boat and captain hat

But were there ever 100 "rowers"? In this case, the commenter would have developed the website him- or herself instead of using AI. And it would have taken a little longer but probably been higher quality. In my experience, most developers are already capable captains and most of their job is "captaining." One of their main complaints is managers who treat them like rowers. AI just shifts what it means to captain?

Honestly I just wonder if everyone is burnt out so they still want to do their side projects but don't have much energy left over for the passion they had before. So the bar for "good enough" just lowers

Re: The rise of industrial software

#157
post #55
post #47

This essay, like so many others, mistakes the task of "building" software with the task of "writing" software. Anyone in the world can already get cheap, mass-produced software to do almost anything they want their computer to do. Compilers spit out new build of any program on demand within seconds, and you can usually get both source code and pre-compiled copies over the internet. The "industrial process" (as TFA pu…

You're getting caught up on the technical meaning of terms rather than what the author actually wrote. Theyre explicitly saying that most software will no longer be artisianal - a great literary novel - and instead become industrialized - mass produced paperback garbage books. But also saying that good software, like literature, will continue to exist.

Isn't this already the case? Your company doesn't build its own word processor, they license it from Microsoft, or they pay Google for G Suite, or whatever. Great books are sold in paperback, after all.

Re: The rise of industrial software

#158
post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> you still needed the captain driving the ship. The question is more what becomes of all the rowers when you’re switching from captain + 100 rowers to captain + steam engine They’re not all going to get their own boat and captain hat

>They’re not all going to get their own boat and captain hat Why not? Anyone can load up Claude code and start trial and erroring until they get something that works and has similar reliability to accepted software … what is the stat about 1 bug per 10 lines of code on average? I am meeting a lot of non coders telling me about their projects they are getting AI to do for them, stuff to help land title something or ot…

The studies I have seen show that AI written software is 70% more buggy than human written code [1]. I am curious where you get your data on AI code having “a similar reliability to accepted software”?

[1] https://www.coderabbit.ai/blog/state-of-ai-vs-human-code-gen...

Re: The rise of industrial software

#159
post #55
post #47

This essay, like so many others, mistakes the task of "building" software with the task of "writing" software. Anyone in the world can already get cheap, mass-produced software to do almost anything they want their computer to do. Compilers spit out new build of any program on demand within seconds, and you can usually get both source code and pre-compiled copies over the internet. The "industrial process" (as TFA pu…

You're getting caught up on the technical meaning of terms rather than what the author actually wrote. Theyre explicitly saying that most software will no longer be artisianal - a great literary novel - and instead become industrialized - mass produced paperback garbage books. But also saying that good software, like literature, will continue to exist.

“Garbage books” are mass-printed, but aren’t mass-written in a mass production sense. Mass production is about producing fairly exact copies of something that was designed once. The design part has always remained more artisanal than industrial. It’s only the production based on the design (or manuscript) that is industrial.

The difference with software is that software is design all the way down. It only needs to be written once, similar to how a mass-produced item needs only be designed once. The copying that corresponds to mass production is the deployment and execution of the software, not the writing of it.

Re: The rise of industrial software

#160
post #55
post #47

This essay, like so many others, mistakes the task of "building" software with the task of "writing" software. Anyone in the world can already get cheap, mass-produced software to do almost anything they want their computer to do. Compilers spit out new build of any program on demand within seconds, and you can usually get both source code and pre-compiled copies over the internet. The "industrial process" (as TFA pu…

You're getting caught up on the technical meaning of terms rather than what the author actually wrote. Theyre explicitly saying that most software will no longer be artisianal - a great literary novel - and instead become industrialized - mass produced paperback garbage books. But also saying that good software, like literature, will continue to exist.

The syntactic representation will become that. End of day it's just math ops, state sync of memory and display. Even semantic objects like an OSs protected memory is a special case of access control that can be mathematically computed around. There is nothing important about special semantics.

The user experience will be less constrained as the self arrangement of pixels improves and users do not run into designer constraints, usually due to lack of granularity some button widget or layout framework is capable of.

"Artisanal" software engineers probably never were their own self selected identity.

Have been writing code since the late 80s, when Windows and commercial Unix were too expansive and we all wrote shoddy but functional kernels. Who does that now? Most gigs these days are glue code to fetch/cache deps and template concrete config values for frameworks. Artisanal SaaS configuration is not artisanal software engineering.

And because software engineers were their own worst enemy the last decade; living big as they ate others jobs and industries; hate for the industry has gone mainstream. Something politicians have to react to. Non-SWEs don't want to pay middle men to use their property. GenAI can get them to that place.

As an art teacher once said; making things for money is not the practice of a craft. It's just capitalism. Anyone building SaaS apps through contemporary methods is a Subway sandwich artist, not the old timey well rounded farmer, hunter, who also bakes bread.

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