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Anthropic taps IPO lawyers as it races OpenAI to go public

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Re: Anthropic taps IPO lawyers as it races OpenAI to go public

#151

It's interesting that Amazon don't appear interested in acquiring Anthropic, which would have seemed like somewhat of a natural fit given that they are already partnered, Anthropic have apparently optimized (or at least adapted) for Trainium, and Amazon don't have their own frontier model. It seems that Amazon are playing this much like Microsoft - seeing themselves are more of a cloud provider, happy to serve anyone…

I too would be sitting back and watching my competitors commit insane capital to this unlikely bet.

Re: Anthropic taps IPO lawyers as it races OpenAI to go public

#152
post #121

That S1 is gonna make for a fun read. It'll make Adam Neumann blush.

Because of unprofitability? ARR and growth are very high, and margins are either good or can soon become good. Is the claim that coding agents can't be profitable?

let's see them then

Re: Anthropic taps IPO lawyers as it races OpenAI to go public

#153
post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://www.businessinsider.com/anthropic-ceo-ai-90-percent-... (March 2025): >"I think we will be there in three to six months, where AI is writing 90% of the code. And then, in 12 months, we may be in a world where AI is writing essentially all of the code," Amodei said at a Council of Foreign Relations event on Monday. >Amodei said software developers would still have a role to play in the near term. This is becau…

you’re once again cutting the quote short — after “all of the code” he has more to say that’s very important for understanding the context and avoiding this rage-bait BS we all love to engage in edit: sorry you mostly included it paraphrased; it does a disservice (I understand it’s largely the media’s fault) to cut that full quote short though. I’m trying to specifically address someone claiming this person said 90%…

can you post the full quote then? He has posted what the rest of us read

Re: Anthropic taps IPO lawyers as it races OpenAI to go public

#154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If they get into the S&P 500 at a $300B market cap that puts them at #30, just behind Coca-Cola. They'll make up about half a percent of the index and then will have a ready supply of price-insensitive buyers in the form of everybody who puts their retirement fund into an index fund on autopilot.

SP500 is a capitalization* weighted index, hence it is very price sensitive. Everybody who puts their retirement fund into an index fund are buying the index fund without relation to the index fund's price (aka price insensitive). But the index fund itself is buying shares based on each company's relative performance, hence the index fund is price sensitive. That is evidenced by companies falling out of the SP500 and…

The S&P 500 is inversely price sensitive, as a capitalization-weighted index. Normally you want to buy low and sell high. An S&P500 index fund buys more of high-priced stocks and sells the low-priced ones, by definition. The highest market caps are the stocks with the highest prices (adjusted for number of shares outstanding, of course).

For most ordinary investors, this doesn't really matter, because you put your money into your retirement fund every month and you only take it out at retirement. But if you're looking at the short term, it absolutely matters. I've heard S&P 500 indexing referred to as a momentum investment strategy: it buys stocks whose prices are going up, on the theory that they will go up more in the future. And there's an element of a self-fulfilling prophecy to that, since if everybody else is investing in the index fund, they also will be buying those same stocks, which will cause them to go up even more in the future.

If you want something that buys shares based on each company's relative performance, you want a fundamental-weighted index. I've looked into that and I found a few revenue-weighted index funds, but couldn't find a single earnings-weighted index fund, which is what I actually want. Recommendations wanted; IMHO the S&P 500 is way overvalued on fundamentals and heavily exposed to certain fairly bubbly stocks (the Mag-7 alone make up 35% of your index fund, and one of them is my employer, and all of them employ heavily in my geographic area and are pushing up my home value), so I've been looking for a way to diversify into companies that actually have solid earnings.

Re: Anthropic taps IPO lawyers as it races OpenAI to go public

#155
post #130
post #46

I love claude, but looking at google it seems like it will just be a matter of time before Google/Gemini will be a better product. Just looking at how much Google have improved their AI game the last couple months. I'm putting my money on google, I assume the reason they are doing an IPO right now is to be able to cash in on the investment before google surpasses them. It's a hot take, I know :D

Have you tried Opus 4.5? It's an absolute workhorse. It is so proactive in fixing blockers - 90% of the time for me, choosing the right path forward.

[flagged]

Re: Anthropic taps IPO lawyers as it races OpenAI to go public

#156
post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

you’re once again cutting the quote short — after “all of the code” he has more to say that’s very important for understanding the context and avoiding this rage-bait BS we all love to engage in edit: sorry you mostly included it paraphrased; it does a disservice (I understand it’s largely the media’s fault) to cut that full quote short though. I’m trying to specifically address someone claiming this person said 90%…

can you post the full quote then? He has posted what the rest of us read

I believe:

> "and in 12 months, we might be in a world where the ai is writing essentially all of the code. But the programmer still needs to specify what are the conditions of what you're doing. What is the overall design decision. How we collaborate with other code that has been written. How do we have some common sense with whether this is a secure design or an insecure design. So as long as there are these small pieces that a programmer has to do, then I think human productivity will actually be enhanced"

from https://www.youtube.com/live/esCSpbDPJik?si=kYt9oSD5bZxNE-Mn

(sorry have been responding quickly on my phone between things; misquotes like this annoy the fuck out of me)

Re: Anthropic taps IPO lawyers as it races OpenAI to go public

#157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

SP500 is a capitalization* weighted index, hence it is very price sensitive. Everybody who puts their retirement fund into an index fund are buying the index fund without relation to the index fund's price (aka price insensitive). But the index fund itself is buying shares based on each company's relative performance, hence the index fund is price sensitive. That is evidenced by companies falling out of the SP500 and…

The S&P 500 is inversely price sensitive, as a capitalization-weighted index. Normally you want to buy low and sell high. An S&P500 index fund buys more of high-priced stocks and sells the low-priced ones, by definition. The highest market caps are the stocks with the highest prices (adjusted for number of shares outstanding, of course). For most ordinary investors, this doesn't really matter, because you put your mo…

>inversely price sensitive

This isn't a term used in economics. The typical terms used are positive price sensitivity and negative price sensitivity.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/price-sensitivity.asp

While it is true that being added to the SP500 can lead to an increase in demand, and hence cause the index fund to pay more for the share, there are evidently opposing forces that modulate share prices for companies in the SP500.

>I've been looking for a way to diversify into companies that actually have solid earnings.

No one has more solid earnings than the top tech companies. Assuming you don't work for Tesla, you already are doing about the best you can in the US. Your options to diversify is to invest in other countries, develop your political connections, and possibly get into real estate development. Maybe have a bunch of kids.

https://companiesmarketcap.com/most-profitable-companies/

Re: Anthropic taps IPO lawyers as it races OpenAI to go public

#160
post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What do you mean by pure play? Claude code alone is 1B revenue. It's not just the API they make money on. https://www.anthropic.com/news/anthropic-acquires-bun-as-cla...

But there's no moat around these models, they're all interchangeable and leapfrogging each other at a decent pace. Gemini could get much better tomorrow and their entire customer base could switch without issue.

I think Claude Code is the moat (though I definitely recognize it's a pretty shallow moat). I don't want to switch to Codex or whatever the Gemini CLI is, I like Claude Code and I've gotten used to how it works.

Again, I know that's a shallow moat - agents just aren't that complex from a pure code perspective, and there are already tools that you can use to proxy Claude Code's requests out to different models. But at least in my own experience there is a definite stickiness to Claude that I probably won't bother to overcome if your model is 1.1x better. I pay for Google Business or whatever it's called primarily to maintain my vanity email and I get some level of Gemini usage for free, and I barely touch it, even though I'm hearing good things about it.

(If anything I'm convincing myself to give Gemini a closer look, but I don't think that undermines my overarching (though slightly soft) point).

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