151–160 of 215 posts
The fact that I'm getting rate-limited every day even though my company has enterprise-level subscriptions to gemini, chatgpt, etc. tells me this bubble is far from popping. I predict within a year 80%+ of devs will be using LLMs to write most of their code for them.
I think I'm asking for the impossible here... But is anyone trying to hedge risk in their personal finances? I'm not a real "investor" (index funds only) but I am feeling more willing to forgo gains to be more risk averse just based on my own neuroses. Maybe I cash out and buy T-bills? Gold? Bullets? What's the non-crazy person equivalent?
During covid you probably wanted a 70/30 split so you didn't get eaten by inflation, but I think 60/40 is probably a safer bet for the average person right now. I'd consider pulling back to 50/50 over the next 6 months to a year so you can loss harvest and skip the capital gains. I'd also consider moving money you don't expect to need anytime in the next decade into real estate. I'm not really an investor btw, this i…
> I'm not really an investor btw, this is just my intuition
Don't give advice when you don't know the subject. For a start, there are more than 2 assets. For some, certain corporate bonds look nice right now. Although indices are overpriced and carry risk due to the bubble, much of the wider market is extremely cheap. Developed and undeveloped foreign markets have also been outperforming the US. And commodities...
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yeah, not sure how valuable lots of real estate is if there aren't any high-paying jobs nearby, in part due to AI. And this isn't even about the total number of high-paying jobs. Even having too much income concentration (fewer, but higher paying jobs) will mean that there's less demand at the margin. To put it another way, if the job growth in say, silicon valley, starts to reverse because of AI, there will still be…
Those people still need to rent. So as long as the rental income covers the mortgage, you’re ahead of the game and someone is paying an asset down for you.
Depends on equity and interest rate of course.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
For the most part, current AI tools do tasks for people, not their jobs. And for the most part it does rather poor quality, low-depth work (but with superhuman speed and superhuman breadth).
If the task is normally "hire a person to do X" it comes out the same.
The closest thing I can think of is fiverr type gigs, and I'm still paying someone on fiverr for like, UI assets/design for an extremely simple game with 5 screens, and it's not particularly close.
Pets.com→Chewy Webvan → Instacart, DoorDash, Amazon Fresh Kozmo.com → Postmates, Uber Eats, Gopuff Boo.com (fashion) → Farfetch, Net-a-Porter, ASOS Broadcast.com → YouTube, Netflix, Twitch The dot-com bubble didn’t prove the internet was a fad — it proved the internet was inevitable, but the valuations assumed adoption would happen in 2 years instead of 15–20. To me it feels like the AI inevitability will be much qui…
Pets.com→Chewy Webvan → Instacart, DoorDash, Amazon Fresh Kozmo.com → Postmates, Uber Eats, Gopuff Boo.com (fashion) → Farfetch, Net-a-Porter, ASOS Broadcast.com → YouTube, Netflix, Twitch The dot-com bubble didn’t prove the internet was a fad — it proved the internet was inevitable, but the valuations assumed adoption would happen in 2 years instead of 15–20. To me it feels like the AI inevitability will be much qui…
The internet is a medium, an interconnection of autonomous computer networks
A "web" of hyperlinked HTML pages is one use of an internet
However this internet is more than a handful of popular websites incorporated as companies
Perhaps that's why it was called the "dot-com" bubble and not the "internet" bubble
Ok, so if that prediction is true what actions did you take? Identify the therefore part of the prediction and enumerate the three highest priority steps. Have you determined that the stock market will crash and bought positions accordingly? Have you sold all your nvidia stock? What are the implications in the broader economy and what steps have you taken?
Recognizing a bubble and timing what will happen are two really different things. Will it pop tomorrow or 4 years from now? Will the market go up another 70% before the eventual pop?
The fact that I'm getting rate-limited every day even though my company has enterprise-level subscriptions to gemini, chatgpt, etc. tells me this bubble is far from popping. I predict within a year 80%+ of devs will be using LLMs to write most of their code for them.
If they are rate limiting you, it means they already started enshitfying the product before it is even profitable
Earlier quoted context omitted.
No, it wouldn't as the whole reason people were giving Openai that 500 dollars is because they thought they could make more than 500 dollars from it. So now that value is just shifted into the companies that were going to purchase from openai. It would just hurt the investors who have exposure to openai/anthropic/google/microsoft. Much of the value of this AI boom is not from the direct model companies but its from c…
Here's what I think would happen if anyone, by tomorrow, could download GPT 5.1 for free and run it performantly on something like a $500 laptop: * It would stop datacenter- and other related infrastructure construction, making huge investments effectively worthless for companies like Oracle and Amazon, and of course hurt the construction sector. * It would hurt the companies you mention, plus a many more including N…
Sure, the average person has no interest in self hosting, but businesses will at least run the numbers.
Pets.com→Chewy Webvan → Instacart, DoorDash, Amazon Fresh Kozmo.com → Postmates, Uber Eats, Gopuff Boo.com (fashion) → Farfetch, Net-a-Porter, ASOS Broadcast.com → YouTube, Netflix, Twitch The dot-com bubble didn’t prove the internet was a fad — it proved the internet was inevitable, but the valuations assumed adoption would happen in 2 years instead of 15–20. To me it feels like the AI inevitability will be much qui…