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Oracle is underwater on its $300B OpenAI deal

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Re: Oracle is underwater on its $300B OpenAI deal

#151

Post by onesociety2022 »

matsz wrote: post #12
harshalizee wrote: post #5

Oracle is the one to look out for if/when the bubble bursts. Most of the big tech will be fine, albeit hurting for a while. For Oracle, this might be existential.

Finally, been waiting for this moment since I've learned about Oracle. Would be well-deserved for them. Hope Larry Ellison loses his yacht.

Larry Ellison owns 40% of Oracle ($625B market cap) as of today. So even if Oracle tanks and becomes a $60B company (10% of what is worth today), Larry will still be a billionaire worth $25B. He will keep his private islands and yachts.

Re: Oracle is underwater on its $300B OpenAI deal

#152

Post by astrange »

Am4TIfIsER0ppos wrote: post #135
astrange wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It mostly does. Treasuries are a kind of dollar.

They could cash out everyone's account from the Scrooge McDuck pile of gold in the vault?

Up to $250k per account yes. The bank would fail but you'd get it over the weekend.

Re: Oracle is underwater on its $300B OpenAI deal

#153

Post by barchar »

supportengineer wrote: post #68
btbuildem wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Time to put your RRSP / 401k in cash, it's all starting to seriously teeter.

Well, bonds should be OK. CDs, Treasuries, etc

CDs (and I-bonds) are very different instruments than bonds. If "bad things" happen and rates go down the CD will not appreciate in value like the bond will.

Re: Oracle is underwater on its $300B OpenAI deal

#154

Post by Incipient »

vel0city wrote: post #137
mschuster91 wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's possible Oracle does the buying, unpacking, and cooling of Nvidia servers and doesn't get paid. The beauty of being a cloud infra provider is you're selling shovels. OpenAI going bust? Doesn't matter too much for Oracle, there will always be someone willing to pay them for GPU compute capacity. Even if the hype behind AI dies down, which I hope it does rather sooner than later, the fundamental aspects aren't v…

What happens if you've got $300B worth of shovels but can only realistically rent them out for $5B/yr? Nortel was a shovel maker selling shovels to ISPs.

Nortel was a bit different - I think the Chinese hack really killed them. Investors got the jitters then jumped ship or something?

But the inadequate sale value of shovels holds.

Re: Oracle is underwater on its $300B OpenAI deal

#156

Post by donavanm »

DiabloD3 wrote: post #142
mschuster91 wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's possible Oracle does the buying, unpacking, and cooling of Nvidia servers and doesn't get paid. The beauty of being a cloud infra provider is you're selling shovels. OpenAI going bust? Doesn't matter too much for Oracle, there will always be someone willing to pay them for GPU compute capacity. Even if the hype behind AI dies down, which I hope it does rather sooner than later, the fundamental aspects aren't v…

Problem is, those Nvidia servers are useless to anyone who needs servers already racked in a datacenter. They're purposely made purely to run LLMs, and anything else would be a waste of time. Nvidia is also fucking over anyone who buy these: datacenters depend on used hardware sales to recoup cost, sometimes getting up to half of what they originally paid for the hardware.... this hardware has no resale value. It's l…

> datacenters depend on used hardware sales to recoup cost

Who? Ive worked for few big infra companies with millions to billions of DC assets. After depreciation and then some, say 3-5 years, theyre effectively scrap. Its more cost effective to buy new, denser, racks than continue to MRC on the stranded space and power. The reseller is cheaper/easier effectively paid to scrap the parts as e-waste and recover what they can.

Re: Oracle is underwater on its $300B OpenAI deal

#157

Post by donavanm »

supportengineer wrote: post #68
btbuildem wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Time to put your RRSP / 401k in cash, it's all starting to seriously teeter.

Well, bonds should be OK. CDs, Treasuries, etc

Bad news, 60/40 isnt a diversification strategy the last few years. 1) positive correlation in equity and fixed income 2) US treasuries/dollars have not had a “flight to safety” bump when volatility/l or bad news happens recently 3) treasuring moving to “all” short term debt, short term rate cuts resulting in long term rate increases.

Re: Oracle is underwater on its $300B OpenAI deal

#158

Post by vel0city »

Incipient wrote: post #154
vel0city wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What happens if you've got $300B worth of shovels but can only realistically rent them out for $5B/yr? Nortel was a shovel maker selling shovels to ISPs.

Nortel was a bit different - I think the Chinese hack really killed them. Investors got the jitters then jumped ship or something? But the inadequate sale value of shovels holds.

Their customer base rapidly disappeared and they tried to paper over the losses with accounting fraud where they had fake sales of equipment because their actual customers disappeared. They had tons of equipment to sell with few customers left to buy them.

Re: Oracle is underwater on its $300B OpenAI deal

#159

Post by keiferski »

esafak wrote: post #36
keiferski wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unless I’m missing something, Google doesn’t really have the “chat journal” aspect that ChatGPT has. It’s just a search engine. For me personally this is a major feature.

What's a chat journal besides a history, which Gemini has?

There isn’t really a folder or project structure, as far as I can tell. (Just trying the app now.)

I imagine the majority of Gemini users are still via Google search, whereas ChatGPT usage is through the app.

Re: Oracle is underwater on its $300B OpenAI deal

#160

Post by keiferski »

spankalee wrote: post #38
keiferski wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unless I’m missing something, Google doesn’t really have the “chat journal” aspect that ChatGPT has. It’s just a search engine. For me personally this is a major feature.

https://gemini.google.com/

No folders or way to organize the history. It’s just a log of questions.

ChatGPT is much more designed around organizing your projects and folders.

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