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Peter Thiel sells off all Nvidia stock, stirring bubble fears

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Re: Peter Thiel sells off all Nvidia stock, stirring bubble fears

#151

Post by bawolff »

markus_zhang wrote: post #103
bawolff wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you believe in this sort of thing i think the signs are there https://www.benjaminlcorey.com/could-american-evangelicals-s...

I used to be very into stuffs like the Revelation when I was young, but that was many years ago. I’m an atheist and I don’t need the bible to see that reality is like a slow moving train wreck.

As an atheist, i know revelations is probably about nero, and that similarities are probably due to similar economic/cultural concerns bringing similar leaders to power. Nonetheless, some of revelations is kind of uncanny.

Re: Peter Thiel sells off all Nvidia stock, stirring bubble fears

#153

Post by thrance »

gopher_space wrote: post #123
BurningFrog wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I expect continued economic performance from a guy who went from nothing to... $25B was the latest number I heard. Empirically, I don't think Christians do worse investments than us atheists, so rationally speaking I don't think it's much of a factor.

How can you tell he’s a Christian? I only know him by his works.

He wrote a long rant about Greta Thunberg being the antichrist. I think that places him more in the "insane" box than the "christian" one, but still.

Re: Peter Thiel sells off all Nvidia stock, stirring bubble fears

#154

Post by zrn900 »

The main reason is likely this:

https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/semiconductors/al...

AliBaba succeeded in reducing GPU usage by 82%. On top of the improvements made by models like Deepseek, it looks like AI will be much more efficient than initially thought. As a result, there should be much less demand for GPUs compared to the ridiculous demand that was being pitched.

Note that Softbank also sold all its Nvidia shares.

Re: Peter Thiel sells off all Nvidia stock, stirring bubble fears

#155

Post by [deleted] »

mightyham wrote: post #117
markus_zhang wrote: post #82

I think people like Peter Thiel has the insider view of the whole sector, so I would not discount this just because I don’t align with him on political stuffs. But again we never know his real positions.

I agree that it's very difficult to fully understand what his real positions are, and interestingly I think he clearly wants that to be the case. Peter Thiel is interested in and has actually written extensively about Straussianism which is an intellectual movement obsessed with analyzing esoteric meanings in philosophical literature.

[deleted]

Re: Peter Thiel sells off all Nvidia stock, stirring bubble fears

#156

Post by gsf_emergency_4 »

kibibu wrote: post #150
mightyham wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree that it's very difficult to fully understand what his real positions are, and interestingly I think he clearly wants that to be the case. Peter Thiel is interested in and has actually written extensively about Straussianism which is an intellectual movement obsessed with analyzing esoteric meanings in philosophical literature.

Reading his recent "Greta Thunberg Is The Antichrist" stuff leads me to believe the Peter Thiel: - Is deeply unscientific, coming across as a highfalutin paranoid QAnon; and - Has zero self-awareness That said, he has plenty of money and connections, so moves like these are likely well justified.

Detailed perspective from someone with insight into Thiel's thinking https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-6LakOrqDL4&t=1s

That watched, imho Thiel is interested in the post-Straussian tension between "thinking in the open" (ideal science) and "focussed value creation" (which is best done behind closed doors)

AI as driven by premium mediocre Millennials combines the worst of both: lazy group-think promoted by stochastic parrots, expensive hardware weaponized by people who didn't earn that privilege

Capitalism or communism is a false dichotomy. You'd want any given pre-Jedi to access the Force, build their own lightsabers (in a cave), but not turn to the dark side.

GitHub serves Midichlorians. NVDA serves the Federation (and is one of the deadly sins to boot)

Re: Peter Thiel sells off all Nvidia stock, stirring bubble fears

#157

Post by nurettin »

zrn900 wrote: post #154

The main reason is likely this: https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/semiconductors/al... AliBaba succeeded in reducing GPU usage by 82%. On top of the improvements made by models like Deepseek, it looks like AI will be much more efficient than initially thought. As a result, there should be much less demand for GPUs compared to the ridiculous demand that was being pitched. Note that Softbank also sold all its…

Even if you reduce computing requirements for inference by 99.999% there is still enough demand to saturate all high end cards for decades.

Re: Peter Thiel sells off all Nvidia stock, stirring bubble fears

#158

Post by seanmcdirmid »

markus_zhang wrote: post #82

I think people like Peter Thiel has the insider view of the whole sector, so I would not discount this just because I don’t align with him on political stuffs. But again we never know his real positions.

He could be selling NVIDIA to buy OpenAI like SoftBank just did. It might not be a bubble exist but a re-positioning.

Re: Peter Thiel sells off all Nvidia stock, stirring bubble fears

#159

Post by gsf_emergency_4 »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #158
markus_zhang wrote: post #82

I think people like Peter Thiel has the insider view of the whole sector, so I would not discount this just because I don’t align with him on political stuffs. But again we never know his real positions.

He could be selling NVIDIA to buy OpenAI like SoftBank just did. It might not be a bubble exist but a re-positioning.

It's in Thiel's nature to make moves counter to Altman's. Certainly, he does not share Masa's (or PG's) weakness for the genii of the day. (Secretly despises, actually?) They are kinda nontechnical in the same way (chess or SaaS are equally relevant to the future), but what Thiel has passion for are flexible moral abstractions, not politics (the whys rather than the whats of winning)

Re: Peter Thiel sells off all Nvidia stock, stirring bubble fears

#160

Post by ethbr1 »

drumhead wrote: post #139
andsoitis wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

MSFT and AAPL seem like better ways to diversify your money away from chips, while keeping it in technology.

APPL is the best bet as it doesnt have any exposure to AI. MSFT has spent a truckload of money on datacentres, if AI doesnt deliver they're going to face a huge drag on earnings because of the overinvestment.

Microsoft has the same struggle as Facebook and Google.

If AI matures into the next big thing, it risks wiping them out of their dominant positions if they don't spend to keep pace.

If it doesn't, then they just blew a bunch of money but are still dominant players, with an existential threat in the rearview.

Given the relative risks, they'd be foolish not to pump some of their cash flow into AI for a few years until the pace settles.

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