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I analyzed 180M jobs to see what jobs AI is replacing today

bloomberry.com

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Re: I analyzed 180M jobs to see what jobs AI is replacing today

#151

I perform a different analysis, focused more on the type of blue collar jobs that most people believe are the prime candidates for AI/robotic job replacement: https://emusings.substack.com/p/is-automation-going-to-eat-y...

You switch from global automation to US car manufacturing in the first paragraph without a even a line break, basically equating them.

The first graph you show is missing the corresponding table from the source which shows the exact opposite of what you have stated: the workforce had been steadily increasing until ~2019 and is in decline since then. Not massively but still it contradicts what you stated. Next you switch to Korea and the wage increase without aligning a corresponding price increase or adjust for inflation. Then you switch to the history on the industrial revolution. At that point I gave up because I know the point you are trying to make and I can see, you adjusted your samples to match that point.

Re: I analyzed 180M jobs to see what jobs AI is replacing today

#152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OP here. You're right to be skeptical, there's an API here if you want to see a sample of the data: https://docs.bloomberry.com/reference/get_signals-jobs-json#...

Thanks! Great data source. It's just that 180M seemed a bit high. 10x more than this one (also yours): https://bloomberry.com/blog/how-ai-is-disrupting-the-tech-jo... Btw. I'm not arguing about the quality of your posts, which I consider really good :).

Back after 1 day. I did the homework.

I analyzed the data, only ~100M job postings. There's a lot of repetition (some jobs are posted as much as >10 times).

The actual number of real, unique jobs in there should be on the order of 10M and I'm being generous.

Re: I analyzed 180M jobs to see what jobs AI is replacing today

#153
post #151

I perform a different analysis, focused more on the type of blue collar jobs that most people believe are the prime candidates for AI/robotic job replacement: https://emusings.substack.com/p/is-automation-going-to-eat-y...

You switch from global automation to US car manufacturing in the first paragraph without a even a line break, basically equating them. The first graph you show is missing the corresponding table from the source which shows the exact opposite of what you have stated: the workforce had been steadily increasing until ~2019 and is in decline since then. Not massively but still it contradicts what you stated. Next you swi…

I go where I have data.

If you have additional data, I would be grateful for it and I will amend my article.

Re: I analyzed 180M jobs to see what jobs AI is replacing today

#154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also decline in Security engineer by 0.35% doesn't make sense by conventional wisdom. Shouldn't it be increasing due to increased demand for security in all ai integrations?

I wouldn't be surprised by a drop in security postings. Quite a few companies view security as an "overhead" so the siren call of reducing that overhead by introducing AI is a thing. Also for a lot of jobs in security it's pretty hard to measure how well it's being done, so if the AI based solutions are worse, that might not show up for a while

> for a lot of jobs in security it's pretty hard to measure how well it's being done

Nothing going wrong: “What are we paying you for?”

Everything going wrong: “What are we paying you for?”

It’s a no-win situation unless you manage to score a division manager who understands security and understands the reports a good security division produces. And most importantly, understands that no news is good news.

Re: I analyzed 180M jobs to see what jobs AI is replacing today

#155
post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In mechanical engineering you can be an engineer or a mechanic, or other things (like a hobbies or different degrees of casual work), and they're no interchangeable. I think being an engineer implies it's a profession you've trained in and you're implementing the science behind it in a practical manor in some capacity (like a computer scientist studies computers, a computer engineer implements and builds the systems…

> In mechanical engineering you can be an engineer or a mechanic, or other things Sure. While some mechanics may sometimes find themselves having to design things to carry out their work (in which case they would be engineers during that time), generally speaking mechanics carry out the physical replacement of what engineers have already designed. They are not designing things themselves. But there is no mechanic ana…

I would say attaching things together with or from an LLM would be the analogy. Being a mechanic and being an engineer are both technical jobs which require skill, but one is design focused while the other is system focused.

I would also disagree that "professional engineer" is a meaningful distinction from engineer. I don't really think of an engineer as being something you can do casually, it's a profession.

Also re-reading my comment I should have said adjacent to mechanical engineering, generally you don't get a degree in mechanical engineering to become a mechanic.

Re: I analyzed 180M jobs to see what jobs AI is replacing today

#156
post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In mechanical engineering you can be an engineer or a mechanic, or other things Sure. While some mechanics may sometimes find themselves having to design things to carry out their work (in which case they would be engineers during that time), generally speaking mechanics carry out the physical replacement of what engineers have already designed. They are not designing things themselves. But there is no mechanic ana…

I would say attaching things together with or from an LLM would be the analogy. Being a mechanic and being an engineer are both technical jobs which require skill, but one is design focused while the other is system focused. I would also disagree that "professional engineer" is a meaningful distinction from engineer. I don't really think of an engineer as being something you can do casually, it's a profession. Also r…

> Being a mechanic and being an engineer are both technical jobs which require skill, but one is design focused while the other is system focused.

Right. And such software-based work is always design-focused. You're writing documents that specify how the computer is expected to function. The computer takes those specifications and turns it into something functional. I think you can make a good case the latter is system work, but not something humans participate in.

In the olden days we had to write those specifications in arcane languages that were a speciality to learn. Now you can write the specifications in plain English, more or less. That's evolutionary, but since the advent of the compiler we've always been moving towards the language being more and more like English (or insert other natural language, if you prefer). Such progress is nothing new.

Perhaps it's like the difference between a manual and automatic transmission. Gearheads worried about their personhood might try to argue otherwise, but in reality you aren't not a driver if your car has an automatic transmission. It is not the exact details of the tool that defines the act you are engaging in. Likewise, you don't suddenly stop being an engineer just because the tools have now made it "easy".

> I don't really think of an engineer as being something you can do casually, it's a profession.

You're always free to come up with your own pet definition, but per the record of how the word is most commonly used out there in the world, there is no connotations to one's skill, ability, quality, or anything of that nature that is normally associated with professional engineer. It only refers to the act itself in any capacity. Which, of course, is why we also coined the term "professional engineer". That would have be entirely pointless — and therefore would have never been adopted — if "engineer" already captured that sentiment under common use.

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